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February 2022 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie has a nice snower for 2/7-8 but no other support at the moment.

Except me ... :)   heh..

I mentioned the "D8-12" near the end of the  blizzard as the next interesting period ( for me...).   I did not anticipate ( honestly ..) this aspect in the foreground - though in my defense...I was not looking for it's type; that being non- large synoptic rooted, such as the last event was..etc.  This nearing system is an interesting arctic kiss against modest warm anomaly in both non-hydrostatic circulation manifold in the S, but one with modest warm hydrostatic heights - which is why there is unusual QPF likely to verify across a gargantuan swath of CONUS real-estate.  "Hadley ... I want you to meet Arctic - I think y'all 'ill hit it off"

Anyway, I "sorta" still like the D5 -10 range ( as it's gotten closer..), because the flow is showing a tendency ( still ) to bulge the +PNA ridge toward the Rockies.  WHILE, and this is important ...the flow subtended E across the mid latitudes of the continent appears to "relax" gradient some. This offers room for amplitude/ .. less overall large --> shorter scale negative interference ( which is really what speeding flow/compression really represents). 

The only problem is ... we are not getting delivered any kind of stronger Pac wave mechanics into that described arena, such that anything meaningful can spawn.  So, it's like a scaffolding for building that never gets filled in.  This happened a year ago in January - the flow relaxed and there wasn't much to take advantage of it.  It just sort of came and went - maybe you remember that.  I dunno.  Point is ... it happens.

I think if a S/W does get introduced, it may take advantage - but I've been in wait. 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

By the way, as as separate aspect... Folks are mentioning the MJO.   I'd be careful using that for this first two weeks of February, as NCEP is being pretty clear that there are local time scale Rossby wave(s) activity that is in wave-space conflict  ... causing suppression of the wave's emergence through the Marine continent.   It may change heading into week two, but by then, it's forcing ( if it can ...) time lags into week 3.  Yikes.. In other words, it may not work to depend much on any MJO feedbacks.  

Also, I recall mentioning in my own 'tepid takes' wrt to the seasonal outlook game earlier this last autumn, that I thought the La Nina and the atmosphere may uncouple as the season progressed ( won't go into reasons why, as they piss off Ray LOL... ).. No but that is being observed now, as the low level westerlies are currently disonnected from the La Nina circulation model.

The MJO remains weak, with both the RMM-based and CPC velocity potential based indices
reflecting low amplitude and no eastward progression.
There are indications of an eastward propagating enhanced convective envelope now over the
Indian Ocean, but a remarkably strong Rossby wave is destructively interfering with this signal.
Anomalous lower-level westerlies over the east-central Pacific reflect a continued disruption of the
La Niña background state.

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Solar spring begins in 6 days ... less than a week!

Yup..

Doesn't mean much of course.  It's not really forcing at first, but the perennial solar nadir, which begins on November 8, ends on February 8. 

From February 8 thru May 8, is the transition.  ...  May 8 thru August 8 is the max, and then we descend.  It's when the acceleration of day-light recovery begins at both ends of the day - I think...  I'm not sure if there's more to it than that.

Anyway, I've often been relentless made fun of ( entirely understandable ... ) for even mentioning in the past. But, you may notice that a cold sunny day around that day and moving forward, doesn't need the heater on in your car.  Or does less... 

Whether the weather wants to cooperate or not, these celestial mechanics are happening.  and it is about that time of year, mid February, where the internal monologue sounds off during a blizzard, 'It can rage all it wants ... July is still coming'

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6 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I made it to 40.5F this afternoon.  First 40F since Dec 17th.  47 days!  So close to extending the run for another bunch of days.

43 days in KBOS in 2015 was particularly impressive.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS looking pretty cold for mid-February. (5 day mean Feb 12-17)

 

Feb2_12zEPS850.png

Feb2_12zEPSH5.png

If the 12z GFS is right, after the warmup the next 2 days, the next two weeks should be about -4F BN.  BOS will be lucky to touch 40 during this period.  So much for those weekly calls for AN February.  That is, unless things change dramatically the last 10 days. 

I guess the groundhog saw the GFS this morning.

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS looking pretty cold for mid-February. (5 day mean Feb 12-17)

 

Feb2_12zEPS850.png

Feb2_12zEPSH5.png

That pattern looks really good, deep trough in the east. Correct me if I’m wrong but this would not be a dry pattern either, due to how far west the western ridge axis is. The Atlantic ridge should help as well. 

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1 minute ago, George001 said:

That pattern looks really good, deep trough in the east. Correct me if I’m wrong but this would not be a dry pattern either, due to how far west the western ridge axis is. The Atlantic ridge should help as well. 

Yeah it looks active on that look. It could change of course, but I’m betting we see a few legit chances during the Feb 10-20 period. 

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2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

really nice upcoming pattern with a 2 sigma ridge over British Columbia and split flow. should get some higher-end chances after Super Bowl weekend

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_norm_anom-4667200.thumb.png.70fba27894b34e192884668590139cfb.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z300_speed-4667200.thumb.png.4bf24f46d80816175915302949befc65.png

Every time that ridge astride Pacific Canada giga motions to the E, there's liable to be amplitude either settling near Chitown longitude, or emerging given time.  Timing those movements takes a little "rhythm" for lack of better word but there is a registry there -

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Had to get my weekly covid test for one of my work gigs so I took the opportunity to drive around.    All waterways solid ice.  Charles all the way to the Science Museum and beyond actually looks walkable!  Muddy River mainly frozen and that’s no easy task!  Jamaica Pond frozen solid.   Probably at least a foot on the ground still.   Deepest winter in the Boston area in years with plenty of cold on the way.  Would not mind losing more snow though-losing all of it ensures my walking safety.   But it will do what it will do so I have no say in the matter.

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