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February 2022 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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The recent blizzard was the second largest January snowstorm on record at Blue Hill Observatory in Milton, officials said.

“That’s pretty darn big,” said Charles Orloff, the executive director of the Blue Hill Observatory.

The 27.1 inches of snowfall measured at Blue Hill on Jan. 29 also broke the record for the highest calendar day snowfall ever measured in January at the observatory. It beat out the previous record of 25.2 inches that was set on Jan. 27, 2015.

Orloff said the observatory was staffed around the clock for 30 hours in a row during the blizzard.

“We measure snow every six hours,” Orloff said.

 

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February 2022 Outlook
February Analogs: 1955, 1956, 1971, 1996, 2006 (x2), 2001 (x3), 2018, 2012, 1965, 1975, 1972, 2008, 2011,1985
 
The month should average anywhere from near normal to 2 degrees above average. Warmest near the east coast and the mid atlantic, coldest north and well inland. But again, the risk is for a much warmer outcome.
The forecast for a significant polar vortex disruption between approximately January 21 and February 14 currently appears unlikely to materialize, as the vortex is now expected to remain rather stout into early February.
AVvXsEjjrA8mQjN2xueEbhn5xstYD43U-fRvEeFh
However, it is possible that, too may ultimately prove more delayed than denied, this it will need to be monitored. Otherwise, the implication of the timing discrepancy with respect to the Pacific means that the month is likely to begin rather wintery, featuring a gradient like distribution of snowfall via overrunning and SWFE, due in large part to PNA/-EPO couple combined with a dearth of Arctic blocking. This pattern is now expected to break down and give way to an active pacific jet around mid month, which will mean a much milder period characterized by zonal flow. This progression is supported by the anticipated emergence of the MJO into phase 3 during the early portion of the month, as indicated by the consensus of guidance:
 
AVvXsEhWlNbaFCTCppzKTEloQ_8S18ALs4RSZ3jD

 
 
 
AVvXsEgafk1bTnhEfUxlkn1VIdhwaN6UUPOpY26X
AVvXsEi-aoWP5eBAOCsrmqRiCrRNxLO1tlNAhk8T


Note the southeast ridge emerging in the mean:

 

 

AVvXsEgd95RIc8bddOyzeW8qumnbclwTbVDhtyPQ

Subsequent propagation to phase 4 entails lowering heights it the vicinity of Alaska, which induces a mild, zonal flow:

 

 

AVvXsEimUgiYGukSpr2m19NEpFssRIKZGd2LOBrS

This is followed by potential movement into phase 5 and a continuation of the mild pattern in the latter portion of the month.

 

 

 

AVvXsEiIemDotGYFol1MS-R6o1GzAKPOhptXamIa

This is at least somewhat consistent with current long term guidance:

 

 

AVvXsEhdPlENRUkPTzZ6RtNrSJzL2bzcMXRHxFG2
 

 

.
 
Feb%2BH5.png

 
Feb%2BTemps.png
Feb%2BPrecip.png
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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:
February 2022 Outlook
February Analogs: 1955, 1956, 1971, 1996, 2006 (x2), 2001 (x3), 2018, 2012, 1965, 1975, 1972, 2008, 2011,1985
 
The month should average anywhere from near normal to 2 degrees above average. Warmest near the east coast and the mid atlantic, coldest north and well inland. But again, the risk is for a much warmer outcome.
The forecast for a significant polar vortex disruption between approximately January 21 and February 14 currently appears unlikely to materialize, as the vortex is now expected to remain rather stout into early February.
AVvXsEjjrA8mQjN2xueEbhn5xstYD43U-fRvEeFh
However, it is possible that, too may ultimately prove more delayed than denied, this it will need to be monitored. Otherwise, the implication of the timing discrepancy with respect to the Pacific means that the month is likely to begin rather wintery, featuring a gradient like distribution of snowfall via overrunning and SWFE, due in large part to PNA/-EPO couple combined with a dearth of Arctic blocking. This pattern is now expected to break down and give way to an active pacific jet around mid month, which will mean a much milder period characterized by zonal flow. This progression is supported by the anticipated emergence of the MJO into phase 3 during the early portion of the month, as indicated by the consensus of guidance:
 
AVvXsEhWlNbaFCTCppzKTEloQ_8S18ALs4RSZ3jD

 
 
 
AVvXsEgafk1bTnhEfUxlkn1VIdhwaN6UUPOpY26X
AVvXsEi-aoWP5eBAOCsrmqRiCrRNxLO1tlNAhk8T


Note the southeast ridge emerging in the mean:

 

 

AVvXsEgd95RIc8bddOyzeW8qumnbclwTbVDhtyPQ

Subsequent propagation to phase 4 entails lowering heights it the vicinity of Alaska, which induces a mild, zonal flow:

 

 

AVvXsEimUgiYGukSpr2m19NEpFssRIKZGd2LOBrS

This is followed by potential movement into phase 5 and a continuation of the mild pattern in the latter portion of the month.

 

 

 

AVvXsEiIemDotGYFol1MS-R6o1GzAKPOhptXamIa

This is at least somewhat consistent with current long term guidance:

 

 

AVvXsEhdPlENRUkPTzZ6RtNrSJzL2bzcMXRHxFG2
 

 

.
 
Feb%2BH5.png

 
Feb%2BTemps.png
Feb%2BPrecip.png

Nothing looks warm until maybe the end of February 

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3 hours ago, met_fan said:

Pretty clear winners and losers in January…Albany has the least snow of any city on this list
536f8b0b548c5ab26fd531b5387e473e.jpg
71281a8ac7e7099aec7646271297d098.jpg

That’s a great list… Atlantic City, Buffalo, and Boston all have had some great luck, while the inside of that geographic triangle has struggled snowfall wise. Not winter-wise though as temp departures have been cold (BTV almost -7 in January).

Buffalo lined up for another healthy total in this next event… rare for them to get so many synoptic events out in Lake Effect land.

 

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5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Nothing looks warm until maybe the end of February 

This winter is the opposite of the 2019-2020 winter. The models kept advertising a pattern change to colder weather that winter, and then it would get delayed one week, two weeks, a month, and then the entire winter. This winter, the warm pattern keeps getting delayed. It was late Jan, then early Feb, then mid Feb, and now late Feb. It’s very possible the pattern change to warmth just… doesn’t happen until late March or early April. Patterns can lock in for a long time, like during the fall we were locked in a warm pattern and it didn’t look like it would end. It looked bad in late December, we were finishing up yet another warmer than average month and it didn’t look like things would change. Then we flipped cold the first week of January. It looks like we are locked in a cold, snowy pattern now. 

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