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February 2022 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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10 hours ago, radarman said:

Poor Tahoe is in kind of rough shape after the huge Dec.   The base at Alpine had 2" for January.  6" at 8k'.  And a lot of warm California sunshine.  Probably decent bumps at least.

When I was a teen I was jealous of Tahoe and looked up to the Sierra as the ultimate snow utopia. 1999-2000 I was 15, I was teased about my snow obsession. It was a pretty decent winter for the mountains above 5500 feet, but terrible for Reno and Sparks, Sparks at 4400 feet probably managed about 5 inches of snow for that winter, spaced out over 4 to 5 one-inch events, which is very below normal but was typical for a few years 1999-2001.

As I have gotten older I have observed and studies more years than those, and have come to realize that the middle and southern Sierra is in all actuality unreliable for heavy snow. When they get it THEY GET IT but there are some years where Lake Level at Lake Tahoe only pulls together 40-80 inches for the season. Do note, that the West shore of the lake sees 3 times as much snow as the East shore despite the distance being several miles, due to the rain shadow that is cast by the Sierra Crest just west of the lake. 

You think I am concerned about the SE Massachusetts coast failing to break 1 inch in a bad winter? Oh think again. With modeled predictions of global warming, the Sierra is poised to suffer massive losses in snowfall and I have zero doubt that by the late 21st century, Reno and Sparks will experience not just one or two winters without measurable snow, but that it will happen again and again all the time!

The Sierra winters are not dictated by the same influences that New England is. New England is situated in a continental influence and derives its cold air from Canada. But the Sierra is dependent on atmospheric HEIGHTS entirely for getting low enough "Snow Levels" to bring snow to its altitudes because it is adjacent to the Pacific Ocean, which will be much less forgiving of increases in global temperature. The lack of Continental/Radiational cooling is why the far west is so badly exposed to the impacts of climate change, prompting concern that these mountain ranges will become relatively snowless in bad years. Cold air already struggles to make it far enough south to reach the West Coast on some years, so maybe you just end up with multiple years where you got high average snow levels... The kind of storms that will bring rain below 8000 feet and stuff. Then throw in the region's penchant for multi-year droughts, and the odds really start working against you.

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1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Speaking of the LR, I love this look for February

Neg EPO supplying the cold. Just enough SE ridge to avoid suppression.

To me I see a warmer 1994 here.

Also, I truly believe the Negative NAO hurt us in December as it created compression between the SE Ridge and the -NAO. This look of course would induce cutter risk, however with cutters you get bootleg blocking AND introduce weak trailing wave opportunities. I believe we would have had more snow with a positive NAO in December.

Finally, and I will admit I do not fully understand this, but we will have shorter wavelengths in second half of February. I am thinking this would mute the effects of a deep RNA.

 

1825219040_gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65(2).thumb.png.6a00a0f1b6baf273f121f58570b4ce15.png

 

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4ºF was the low here in the valley overnight.  While, at the same time, it was 21ºF at the top of Whiteface at 4,800ft., 35 miles west of here.  I could almost see the impinging warmth looking up.  We've rocketed up to 22ºF already today.  Should see 30ºF for the first time in a while later this afternoon.

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