February 2022 Obs/Disco

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Where was that mentioned? The AFD? Link?

Man, even though I have been porked, I feel better about my seasonal call....hopefully we can make up some ground from here back to Albany.

I saw it mentioned I think on WCVB? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Not bad for a rat winter.

 

"With just over three feet of snow, January 2022 is now the fourth snowiest January on record and the eighth snowiest of any month on record."

I knew damn well this season would not rat....this la nina was like the love child of 2010-2011 and 2020-2021.....if you look at the snowy period, its like a mean of the snowiest periods for both of those respectieve seasons.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I remember calmly debating with Fisher a little bit on twitter when he put out his ratter of an outlook.....score one for the amateur guy.

[ORH_wxman]

EPS cancels the Feb torch....what a tragic bust by the weeklies if that's right.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

EPS cancels the Feb torch....what a tragic bust by the weeklies if that's right.

Yea, tragic.....I'm sure we'll all weep-

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

EPS cancels the Feb torch....what a tragic bust by the weeklies if that's right.

Yep. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Let’s hope it cancels the snow eater Friday 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Let’s hope it cancels the snow eater Friday 

Cancelled from Stafford north.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Cosgrove has the cold stretch going into mid Feb....I knew we he have joked abut him in the past, but he is very good IMO.

[George001]

37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I remember calmly debating with Fisher a little bit on twitter when he put out his ratter of an outlook.....score one for the amateur guy.

Didn’t he forecast 25 inches of snow in Boston the entire winter? I remember reading that and thinking that was very aggressive, as even if we have a bad pattern the entire winter all it takes is like 2 storms and we break that. The long range guidance looks colder and snowier for Feb now. For a while the guidance was insistent on an extended thaw, I wonder if the volcanic activity has anything to do with the sudden shift colder. I’m not really sure about that, I’ve read mixed things about how it would impact winters in New England. 

[George001]

For this winter the ratter possibility is gone. Many areas in SNE and the northern mid Atlantic (they have had a surprisingly good winter considering we have a La Niña) have already surpassed or are very close to their seasonal average for the entire winter. Boston’s seasonal average is what like 42-44 inches of snow per winter? Boston is already at 36.5 inches and there are still nearly 2 months left of winter. The question is will this go down as an average-good winter, or a great or even an epic winter? 

[weathafella]

7 minutes ago, George001 said:

For this winter the ratter possibility is gone. Many areas in SNE and the northern mid Atlantic (they have had a surprisingly good winter considering we have a La Niña) have already surpassed or are very close to their seasonal average for the entire winter. Boston’s seasonal average is what like 42-44 inches of snow per winter? Boston is already at 36.5 inches and there are still nearly 2 months left of winter. The question is will this go down as an average-good winter, or a great or even an epic winter? 

George, long term average for BOS is 43.3 but the 30 year normal thanks to exorbitant totals in the past  3 decades is 48.7!

Season to date is 36.6 so ratter is off the table.   A one footer plus a 2 footer in the same month cancels the rat imho.

[MJOatleast7]

16 minutes ago, George001 said:

Didn’t he forecast 25 inches of snow in Boston the entire winter? I remember reading that and thinking that was very aggressive, as even if we have a bad pattern the entire winter all it takes is like 2 storms and we break that. The long range guidance looks colder and snowier for Feb now. For a while the guidance was insistent on an extended thaw, I wonder if the volcanic activity has anything to do with the sudden shift colder. I’m not really sure about that, I’ve read mixed things about how it would impact winters in New England. 

FWIW, this eruption released less ash and SO2 than even St. Helens in 1980, let alone Pinatubo in 1991. Its effect on the climate is probably far less that we saw in 1992 with Pinatubo. Also, volcanoes that erupt in the tropics (e.g. Tonga) tend to result in +NAOs and warming, at least for the first 9 months or so, before any cooling sets in. That said, I'm not sure what difference a winter-erupting volcano would make, as opposed to the summer eruption of Pinatubo, whose cooling was not apparent here until the following March.

[MJOatleast7]

Even in the lackluster '80s, weren't the Januarys of '86 and '87 both prolific (BOS around 24" both years)? Those helped mitigate the general ratter-ness going on then

[IowaStorm05]

20 minutes ago, MJOatleast7 said:

FWIW, this eruption released less ash and SO2 than even St. Helens in 1980, let alone Pinatubo in 1991. Its effect on the climate is probably far less that we saw in 1992 with Pinatubo. Also, volcanoes that erupt in the tropics (e.g. Tonga) tend to result in +NAOs and warming, at least for the first 9 months or so, before any cooling sets in. That said, I'm not sure what difference a winter-erupting volcano would make, as opposed to the summer eruption of Pinatubo, whose cooling was not apparent here until the following March.

The real deal about how these effect climate depends on the chemical makeup of the material that is spewed from them if you believe what the authority of the subject says about them. As massive as Mt. Saint Helens was, they never associate it with temporary climate cooling like that 1991 eruption. I don’t know what was so special about the 1991 eruption that made it release sun blocking chemicals.

Now if the Yellowstone super duper volcano ever blew, that REALLY WOULD cool the climate for many years…. Just by sheer reduction in light regardless of what chemicals it is made up of. It’s like a physical sunscreen versus chemical.

But you wouldn’t have to worry about pesky June snow because you would be dead from…. Something…. Within months… that is if your lungs survive the ash… imagine airborne ajax.

[MJOatleast7]

5 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

The real deal about how these effect climate depends on the chemical makeup of the material that is spewed from them if you believe what the authority of the subject says about them. As massive as Mt. Saint Helens was, they never associate it with temporary climate cooling like that 1991 eruption. I don’t know what was so special about the 1991 eruption that made it release sun blocking chemicals.

Now if the Yellowstone super duper volcano ever blew, that REALLY WOULD cool the climate for many years…. Just by sheer reduction in light regardless of what chemicals it is made up of. It’s like a physical sunscreen versus chemical.

But you wouldn’t have to worry about pesky June snow because you would be dead from…. Something…. Within months… that is if your lungs survive the ash… imagine airborne ajax.

I believe it was the relatively large amount of sulfur dioxide released by Pinatubo, which when it crystallizes in the upper atmosphere is light-colored and reflects back a lot of the sunlight.

Hunga Tonga had a relatively ow proportion of SO2 in its plume, which is why it's probably NBD in its effects on climate.

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

For where? Boston?

Yeah Boston.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

41 minutes ago, George001 said:

For this winter the ratter possibility is gone. Many areas in SNE and the northern mid Atlantic (they have had a surprisingly good winter considering we have a La Niña) have already surpassed or are very close to their seasonal average for the entire winter. Boston’s seasonal average is what like 42-44 inches of snow per winter? Boston is already at 36.5 inches and there are still nearly 2 months left of winter. The question is will this go down as an average-good winter, or a great or even an epic winter? 

BDL is below average I believe.

[IowaStorm05]

18 minutes ago, MJOatleast7 said:

I believe it was the relatively large amount of sulfur dioxide released by Pinatubo, which when it crystallizes in the upper atmosphere is light-colored and reflects back a lot of the sunlight.

Hunga Tonga had a relatively ow proportion of SO2 in its plume, which is why it's probably NBD in its effects on climate.

Yes that’s it… Still what makes me wonder is what it was about Pinatubo that makes the chemical composition so much different. Isn’t magma relatively uniform? I am probably being naive but it’s because part of me wants ALL of the volcanoes to cool the climate for a minute. 

[ORH_wxman]

43 minutes ago, MJOatleast7 said:

Even in the lackluster '80s, weren't the Januarys of '86 and '87 both prolific (BOS around 24" both years)? Those helped mitigate the general ratter-ness going on then

Jan 1987 was good....1986 was utter trash. Jan 1988 was ok, maybe slightly above normal snow and quite cold.

[Torch Tiger]

I remember some really bad winters in the 1980's and early 1990's,  and not necessarily SNE but NNE also.  Skip skiing for the day At Loon or Cannon because the trails were wiped and drive to Sugarloaf or Sunday River the next day.  That's much more rare now with the improved snowmaking but there were some really tough skiing/winter years up there, snow basically wiped out for prime weeks.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, George001 said:

Didn’t he forecast 25 inches of snow in Boston the entire winter? I remember reading that and thinking that was very aggressive, as even if we have a bad pattern the entire winter all it takes is like 2 storms and we break that. The long range guidance looks colder and snowier for Feb now. For a while the guidance was insistent on an extended thaw, I wonder if the volcanic activity has anything to do with the sudden shift colder. I’m not really sure about that, I’ve read mixed things about how it would impact winters in New England. 

Yea, I'll have to search for the thread....he had this list of warmest autumns on record for analogs, which most ended up ratter seasons......and I tried to tell him that the few exceptions were all Negative QBO, East based la ninas.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

I remember some really bad winters in the 1980's and early 1990's,  and not necessarily SNE but NNE also.  Skip skiing for the day At Loon or Cannon because the trails were wiped and drive to Sugarloaf or Sunday River the next day.  That's much more rare now with the improved snowmaking but there were some really tough skiing/winter years up there, snow basically wiped out for prime weeks.

I think it was Feb 1992 I went to Killington with my dad for a 5-6 day ski trip during winter break. They prob had about half the trails open. Brown grass showing on a ton of the closed ones. That year was really bad but even some other years we did day trips had plenty of trails closed due to lack of snow and it was mid/late winter when there usually is ample snow pack up there. But not during those lean years. 
 

It was a great time to learn to ski though because once the winters got good, you didn’t even flinch if there was an icy patch. I was used to skiing on huge slabs of ice during the lean years, lol. 

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[Torch Tiger]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think it was Feb 1992 I went to Killington with my dad for a 5-6 day ski trip during winter break. They prob had about half the trails open. Brown grass showing on a ton of the closed ones. That year was really bad but even some other years we did day trips had plenty of trails closed due to lack of snow and it was mid/late winter when there usually is ample snow pack up there. But not during those lean years. 
 

It was a great time to learn to ski though because once the winters got good, you didn’t even flinch if there was an icy patch. I was used to skiing on huge slabs of ice during the lean years, lol. 

I don't remember 1991-1992 specifically but we were at Mt. Cranmore around 900' that winter (Feb vaction), it was probably a disaster.  Great time to learn and master skiing  yes

[PhineasC]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think it was Feb 1992 I went to Killington with my dad for a 5-6 day ski trip during winter break. They prob had about half the trails open. Brown grass showing on a ton of the closed ones. That year was really bad but even some other years we did day trips had plenty of trails closed due to lack of snow and it was mid/late winter when there usually is ample snow pack up there. But not during those lean years. 
 

It was a great time to learn to ski though because once the winters got good, you didn’t even flinch if there was an icy patch. I was used to skiing on huge slabs of ice during the lean years, lol. 

Yeah, learning to ski at a place 1 hour from Baltimore made me pretty tolerant of bad conditions. Definitely some dainty queens up here who only venture out on the finest champagne. haha

Cannon though tests my patience.

[ORH_wxman]

22 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Yeah, learning to ski at a place 1 hour from Baltimore made me pretty tolerant of bad conditions. Definitely some dainty queens up here who only venture out on the finest champagne. haha

Cannon though tests my patience.

The western ski resorts are the worst. You’ll see like 2 huge caution signs/markers put up in front of a dinner plate sized patch of ice and everyone avoiding it like the plague. Anyone who skis out east just laughs at them. 
 

It’s so dry out there they never get real ice like we do out east. Sierras get a little but the Rockies almost never get it. 

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think it was Feb 1992 I went to Killington with my dad for a 5-6 day ski trip during winter break. They prob had about half the trails open. Brown grass showing on a ton of the closed ones. That year was really bad but even some other years we did day trips had plenty of trails closed due to lack of snow and it was mid/late winter when there usually is ample snow pack up there. But not during those lean years. 
 

It was a great time to learn to ski though because once the winters got good, you didn’t even flinch if there was an icy patch. I was used to skiing on huge slabs of ice during the lean years, lol. 

First time I went up north when I started skiing I went to Sugarloaf in the early 80s and all the steep slopes were ice. I remember looking up from the bottom and wondering why there was a lot of people bunched up, wasn't til I got up top that I saw the ice.

[A Moonlit Sky]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

You don't say.

[tavwtby]

all this talking about volcano debris causing cooling in the atmosphere and effects on weather etc, let's mention the crap they've been spraying in the jet stream for years now, apparently to aid in military radio transmission, but who knows, I can say this though, as an aerospace engineer, it's definitely not a contrail and I've seen days forecast for clear skys end up milky white by the time they're done spraying...and they constantly rotate pilots, maintenance crews etc, so they don't work with each other for extended periods of time, that, can have an effect on the weather.