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February 2022 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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  On 1/27/2022 at 4:43 AM, bch2014 said:

GFS has a rain storm for most of New England on D8/D9 but then tees up a massive interior hit on D10/11. 
 

All with a grain of salt, of course. 

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I think the cutter will get under northern NNE.

18z GFS showed this pretty well. The cutter is flattening out.

I could see a mixed mess deal with snow bookending it.

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  On 1/27/2022 at 4:49 PM, NW_of_GYX said:

GFS has had a train of systems for a few runs now, and other than that D7-8 period there is cold air nearby. That's what you want to see at this lead. Not buying 50's in the usual NNE CAD spots at this point. 

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It had a train of systems for right now as well a while ago, to be fair.

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  On 1/27/2022 at 4:54 PM, PhineasC said:

It had a train of systems for right now as well a while ago, to be fair.

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No doubt. But there doesn't seem to be any wholesale pattern changes advertised which is good news. Give us the moisture during peak climo and let's roll the dice. It's hard to go full on torch cutter in early Feb in NNE.

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  On 1/27/2022 at 7:08 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Euro tries to stretch it out before it eventually cuts, but that is a trend that if it continues, it will turn the cutter into a winter wx event at least for NNE...still possible for SNE too but lesser probability.

 

 

Jan27_Euro144.gif

Jan27_Euro168.gif

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Take the 50’s / 60”s out of all forecasts we’ve seen for next week!

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