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February 2022 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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57 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

JDJ has a new rule to forecast, only use the least snowy model, 90% accuracy. 

That would have been the easiest and most accurate way to forecast for our area this season. Instead of countless hours tracking and analyzing...just take the least snowiest solution to paint the forecast map instead and sit back smiling while everyone else bites off their finger and toe nails 4x per day. 

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Interesting next 7 days on the operational runs...

GFS:  basically serves up a 'little critter' that may or may not 'bite,' about once every 3 or so days through D10 actually..  I'm inclined to still suggest we watch Mar 3-5 in there...  That's not completely dead, but admittedly less likely for meridion expression. But the GGEM ... ( hate to admit, the ICANT model) have a chance with a clipper redeveloper/NJ model...  After that, the GFS absorbs the increasing sun and celestial forcing and goes back to dreams of January right to 384 hours independent of any index mode - typical problem with this new species of GFS technology they started rollin' new FV's with some 6 years ago .. but I digress with snark.

The Euro, with it's smoothing tendencies built into the particular guidance ( 4-d blah blah blah) doesn't carry those, but what it does offer is 6 days of below normal temperatures after our present event.  So at least through next Friday...this snow has a shot at sticking around. The sun is obviously a huge factor now and getting huger ... but it's still just early enough that a below normal atmosphere with clouds will help the snow enthusiast's cause.  But WOW what a change happens abruptly next Saturday morning!   Just as is, in this run, that's about as impressive a warm frontal passage you'll ever see... You go from -10C at 850, Friday afternoon, to +10 C Saturday mid morning...  d(T) of 20 ... It would be interesting to see that happen, because Saturday afternoon would be light winds and fully sun in March through a sounding that would support 70, over a snow pack.  That would be a neat competition.

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Boston over 50 inches for the winter now, how high do you guys think the seasonal total gets? I still think there’s one more big storm before winter ends, so I could see an outside shot at Boston making a late run at 70-80 inches if things break our way with the pattern. Even without a big storm, doesn’t look like a shutout pattern is coming anytime soon so 60+ seems reasonable.

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16 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

This'll be one of those annoying winters where the people in the tiny zones that have done well will endlessly squawk about how epic it was and how "everyone did well and should be happy."

Nah, it's a small zone and they know it. I don't see anybody doing that. 

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1 hour ago, George001 said:


Boston over 50 inches for the winter now, how high do you guys think the seasonal total gets? I still think there’s one more big storm before winter ends, so I could see an outside shot at Boston making a late run at 70-80 inches if things break our way with the pattern. Even without a big storm, doesn’t look like a shutout pattern is coming anytime soon so 60+ seems reasonable.

Boston with more than ORH!

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8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Doubt it. We were lucky and know it. 

Yeah we definitely have gotten lucky. Usually there’s at least 1 or 2 events that screw se ma and clobber NW zones, like that early Feb storm last year where I got 8 or so inches, Boston got barely anything and just NW got like 18+. As much as I hope we keep getting lucky this year, climo especially March climo favors a storm that screws us and clobbers NW areas. There’s a reason NW areas average more than us in se ma. I still think we could see something like that in March or even early April this year.

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Just now, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Lots of readings of 10-15F around me, so pretty cold overnight. Normal low temperature is 24F.

I get it..had 14° here, but never bottomed out on my hill. But a few puffs of southerly wind and some sun and it was pushing 30°. Tomorrow will feel like deep winter though.

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