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February 2022 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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Today was noteworthy.  It was in the 50s early this morning, in both town and on the mountain.  Temperatures started dropping, but it wasn't until the true cold front moved through that temperatures plummeted to more normal levels for February in NNE.

A couple photos from the boundary slinking south, which seemed to have connections back to Lake Ontario.

274735788_10104740805280080_468238471805

274725952_10104740823279010_460560371406

Even at the valley ASOS/MVL there was a decent couple hour period of snow reported with the temperature drop.  Down to 13F as of an hour ago off mid-50s in the morning.

Feb_23_2022_MVL.jpg

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7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

2 cold fronts of yore in less than a week. Of course in yore they brought us from 30 to -10 instead of 50 to +10.

It’s been two high-end FROPAs. I don’t remember back to back thaws/cutters mixed with such severe temperature changes.  I’m sure it’s happened before but within a week is hard to do.

40+ degree temp drops.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It may relax for a couple of days like on the 4th or 5th? But otherwise a huge EPO likely leads to some overrunning chances.

Do you really think that -EPO is all the bluster though? 
 

You know I'm beginning to have my doubts.    Take this for example ... last night's GGEM and Euro operational runs move a close 540 dm ridge node through the Alaskan sector, between day 2 and day 6. 

540

That's what's come of the -EPO that was forecast for this episode back when it was 10 or 12 days in advance, when I recall that being significantly more amplified in the model depiction/vision...

Point being, the tendency to over-do that blocking up there seems air apparent, and I am noticing subtle nuances in the GEFs to belay ( also ) the -EPO it has.  ...I'm just a little leery of the 'over magnification' thing getting into deterministic territory/ranges as not being as "instructive".

The other aspect is more orbital ...we are about to really transform the hemisphere by radiative forcing ( seasonality ).  The 00z operational Euro, excluding details..., in principle shows a 'flashing' of the hemisphere, with a pattern break down and sudden warming of 850 mb layout over the Canadian shield.  GGEM does too...  The GFS doesn't but that model has a ranging speed hard-on in July so ...

Anyway, I'm just not as sold on cash-in result from mid March. Obviously, we can get blizzards until May 10th around here. This doesn't preclude the 1997's or 1977s or 1888s...  But barring those, I'm not sure the pattern really is 'dependable'

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Do you really think that -EPO is all the bluster though? 
 

You know I'm beginning to have my doubts.    Take this for example ... last night's GGEM and Euro operational runs move a close 540 dm ridge node through the Alaskan sector, between day 2 and day 6. 

540

That's what's come of the -EPO that was forecast for this episode back when it was 10 or 12 days in advance, when I recall that being significantly more amplified in the model depiction/vision...

Point being, the tendency to over-do that blocking up there seems air apparent, and I am noticing subtle nuances in the GEFs to belay ( also ) the -EPO it has.  ...I'm just a little leery of the 'over magnification' thing getting into deterministic territory/ranges as not being as "instructive".

The other aspect is more orbital ...we are about to really transform the hemisphere by radiative forcing ( seasonality ).  The 00z operational Euro, excluding details..., in principle shows a 'flashing' of the hemisphere, with a pattern break down and sudden warming of 850 mb layout over the Canadian shield.  GGEM does too...  The GFS doesn't but that model has a ranging speed hard-on in July so ...

Anyway, I'm just not as sold on cash-in result from mid March.

I don't think it will be all out winter, no. But, I could see one of those deals where maybe we have a rain or mixed event, cold comes in, sets up for another wintry event...but then 4 days later it gets milder again....something like that.

 

That's a big block with help from some ridging near nrn Greenland. So while the PV doesn't have the punch it would have in January....I still think it gives chances here, but latitude will matter. 

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Yeah the ensmebles have a bit of reload....so for a few days, the cold in Canada looks a bit drained and gives the impression that winter threats are over. But once the reload happens....you can see how Canada cold reloads too....see animation below on the T850 anomalies....I started the loop at 192 hours when Canada is kind of drained of big cold and watch how it reloads:

 

 

Feb24_00zEPSanimate.gif

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16 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That was one of the more impressive ones I experienced, but the most was March 31 1998.   It was 91 F ...in fact, it was D 3 of a 89, 90, 91.  It was truly unique. I think those records will probably stand for a long while, as they have since.   But at 3:15 pm on the 31, it was 91.4 F on the monitor at UML's wx lab.  I looked at the obs up in Maine, knowing that the BD was coming... at that time, CAR's ASOS was 36 F with NE wind gusting to 45 mph.   That radar had that serpent.  Sometimes very powerful ones will get a weak ribbon echo ...probably because their plowing pollutants along - I dunno what drives that honesty.  But it sinuous like a side-winder as it moved SW from out of Maine about to enter NH.   It came through the Merrimack Valley around 5:45 ... with a lot wind and dust.   38 at dawn the next morning.

I was working in the woods about 50 miles SW from CAR that March 30-31, and our temp never topped 35, with fog, occasional showers and a few IP.  We had no clue how warm it was a few dozen miles to the south.
I think IZG had the greatest drop overnight, from 62 to 7.

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