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February 2022 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Kind of an overrunning look. That’s a lot of cold in Canada into central US.

Kind of playing with fire with the SE Ridge there.

GEPS completely obliterates the SE ridge to mid Florida.

GEFS is the middle ground with the SE ridge just south of DC.

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2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Kind of playing with fire with the SE Ridge there.

GEPS completely obliterates the SE ridge to mid Florida.

GEFS is the middle ground with the SE ridge just south of DC.

Yeah, but the mean trough is so positively tilted, I don't think it means total cutter risk. 

Could be one of those deals that is like overrunning-->cutter-->mini Miller B...etc. It might not always be pretty....but given the time of year, I do want a nice supply of cold to my north. 

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The signal for the 27 .. 29th has been there almost as long as this one currently being monitored, but it's been more so in principle than practice - meaning hinted, but not coherently shown.  Some of the guidance is closer to doing so, but like Superstorm93's post is close but still just a hint.

My take on that is that the gradient is too much. The N/stream would like come down and subsume phase type, but the lower latitude curvature has too many isohypses and the wind velocity is out pacing - it's complex but it can't sync up that way. ...For the time being

There also another signal around 2-4th of Mar. 

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2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Kind of playing with fire with the SE Ridge there.

GEPS completely obliterates the SE ridge to mid Florida.

GEFS is the middle ground with the SE ridge just south of DC.

Mid Atlantic is probably cooked with that look but it’s good for us since we are farther north. The se ridge prevent suppression, mid Atlantic rains while we get buried.

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The signal for the 27 .. 29th has been there almost as long as this one currently being monitored, but it's been more so in principle than practice - meaning hinted, but not coherently shown.  Some of the guidance is closer to doing so, but like Superstorm93's post is close but still just a hint.

My take on that is that the gradient is too much. The N/stream would like come down and subsume phase type, but the lower latitude curvature has too many isohypses and the wind velocity is out pacing - it's complex but it can't sync up that way. ...For the time being

There also another signal around 2-4th of Mar. 

28 days in Feb 

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The ridge out west looks very good but right now the guidance doesn’t want to phase the energy. With that upper air pattern though this storm has a chance to come back. Even if it misses guidance is hinting at a vigorous shortwave behind it, could lead to a threat in the March 2-4 period Tip mentioned earlier. We would need the shortwave to dig more, but the upper air pattern suggests it has room to do so. So that would be 3 threats over the next 10 days, active pattern ahead.

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1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This surely won’t backfire a week out ;)

Agreed. Winter was over after the second week of February..was all we kept hearing.  
 

This season and everything associated with it has been declared dead more than Michael Meyers and Jason Voorhees from Halloween and Friday the 13th.  

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