Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

February 2022 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
 Share

Recommended Posts

14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

No Kev, the one before that.  That was all everybody was saying/thinking too with that…things like, it’ll bump north, they always do etc…it never did. It actually went the opposite way, and we got very little, but it got us on the board. That was the one where me and Luke went back and forth. Lol.  
 

 

Not nearly the meat grinder in place as there was in that pattern. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

These never do well south of Boston. They just don’t. I’m expecting less than 3” of snow and mainly sleet and ice 

There’s plenty of SWFEs that have given you warning snows. I’d def favor north right now but speaking in absolutes is pretty silly at D5. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Ratios?? Congrats

Temps are pretty warm aloft. Look above H85. Euro gets -4C at H7 up to me. The longer the primary holds on the more the temps aloft will be a problem. Still days away so yeah, there will be tweaks to the evolution. 
 

And yeah, 6z GEFS did look warmer at H85 to me. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

its a game with him Will.

I know. He wants someone to respond telling him it will snow more there than he says. 
 

But nobody actually knows how this will trend 5 days out. History and the SE ridge in place says my bet is it trends north, but there’s other factors that could mute that so it wouldn’t be utterly shocking to me if it doesn’t trend north. Probabilistic forecasting is the way to go here. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Temps are pretty warm aloft. Look above H85. Euro gets -4C at H7 up to me. The longer the primary holds on the more the temps aloft will be a problem. Still days away so yeah, there will be tweaks to the evolution. 
 

And yeah, 6z GEFS did look warmer at H85 to me. 

I like the GEFS ENS path of the primary. yea mids warm some but the soundings look unstable up your way, With that look bet you see some great rates and after you are like wow didn't expect that.  Disclaimers based on this mornings runs 5 days out not a forecast

sfcmslp-meanmem.us_ne.png

sfcmslp-meanmem.us_ne (1).png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I know. He wants someone to respond telling him it will snow more there than he says. 
 

But nobody actually knows how this will trend 5 days out. History and the SE ridge in place says my bet is it trends north, but there’s other factors that could mute that so it wouldn’t be utterly shocking to me if it doesn’t trend north. Probabilistic forecasting is the way to go here. 

Yes..5 days out (in any season), and in this crazy season it’s really crapshoot for sure.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yup ...all apologies conferred ... I looked for a thread this morning and did not find one re late week.  I did mention recently I was intending to start one if I did not see one by this morning...  I looked for it, didn't see it.  May have been a timing thing - both doing it..

  • Like 2
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup ...all apologies conferred ... I looked for a thread this morning and did not find one re late week.  I did mention recently I was intending to start one if I did not see one by this morning...  I looked for it, didn't see it.  May have been a timing thing - both doing it..

You’re fine. You probably started your long post before he made his.

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lots of confident posters this morning 5 days out. Super cold antecedent conditions with a very very strong anchored HP.Not your daddys SWFE. Precip numbers should be higher than normal. More snow more ice. Miller B???

Yep, this could easily turn into a Miller B with snowfall totals much higher than typical swfes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...