Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Just now, dendrite said: 18”? Ratios?? Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Dendrite hates to see it, Marchuary. Epic EPO PNA drops too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: No Kev, the one before that. That was all everybody was saying/thinking too with that…things like, it’ll bump north, they always do etc…it never did. It actually went the opposite way, and we got very little, but it got us on the board. That was the one where me and Luke went back and forth. Lol. Not nearly the meat grinder in place as there was in that pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 These never do well south of Boston. They just don’t. I’m expecting less than 3” of snow and mainly sleet and ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: These never do well south of Boston. They just don’t. I’m expecting less than 3” of snow and mainly sleet and ice There’s plenty of SWFEs that have given you warning snows. I’d def favor north right now but speaking in absolutes is pretty silly at D5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Ratios?? Congrats Temps are pretty warm aloft. Look above H85. Euro gets -4C at H7 up to me. The longer the primary holds on the more the temps aloft will be a problem. Still days away so yeah, there will be tweaks to the evolution. And yeah, 6z GEFS did look warmer at H85 to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 I started a thread. I'm feeling pretty confident for this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There’s plenty of SWFEs that have given you warning snows. I’d def favor north right now but speaking in absolutes is pretty silly at D5. its a game with him Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I started a thread. I'm feeling pretty confident for this one Tip, still in bed, hates you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: its a game with him Will. I know. He wants someone to respond telling him it will snow more there than he says. But nobody actually knows how this will trend 5 days out. History and the SE ridge in place says my bet is it trends north, but there’s other factors that could mute that so it wouldn’t be utterly shocking to me if it doesn’t trend north. Probabilistic forecasting is the way to go here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There’s plenty of SWFEs that have given you warning snows. I’d def favor north right now but speaking in absolutes is pretty silly at D5. I can’t recall any that dropped a foot or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: its a game with him Will. You are absolutely gone wild today . Acting like some big winter month is staring us in the face. Settle in please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: Temps are pretty warm aloft. Look above H85. Euro gets -4C at H7 up to me. The longer the primary holds on the more the temps aloft will be a problem. Still days away so yeah, there will be tweaks to the evolution. And yeah, 6z GEFS did look warmer at H85 to me. I like the GEFS ENS path of the primary. yea mids warm some but the soundings look unstable up your way, With that look bet you see some great rates and after you are like wow didn't expect that. Disclaimers based on this mornings runs 5 days out not a forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: You are absolutely gone wild today . Acting like some big winter month is staring us in the face. Settle in please um you might want to look for once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I can’t recall any that dropped a foot or more Oh shit Will gonna beat you down with facts, well downsloping Tolland maxes out at 14 we know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Just wildness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 I shall represent the south CT region in these battles. My guess is 1 to 3 from the coast to 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Still another 36 to 48 hours to go before start taking models seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I shall represent the south CT region in these battles. My guess is 1 to 3 from the coast to 84. We can combine forces for SCT, I’m going to go out on a limb and go with 0-12” for the win. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I know. He wants someone to respond telling him it will snow more there than he says. But nobody actually knows how this will trend 5 days out. History and the SE ridge in place says my bet is it trends north, but there’s other factors that could mute that so it wouldn’t be utterly shocking to me if it doesn’t trend north. Probabilistic forecasting is the way to go here. Yes..5 days out (in any season), and in this crazy season it’s really crapshoot for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 39 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I started a thread. I'm feeling pretty confident for this one I deleted my thread in deference to Tip with the red tag 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Not nearly the meat grinder in place as there was in that pattern. Oh Yes correct, and I certainly did realize this, that’s why I put in there this is different. This has a gorgeous high this time…if the depiction of that is close to correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I deleted my thread in deference to Tip with the red tag Who cares…just start it. You know what you’re doing. Put it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 17 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: We can combine forces for SCT, I’m going to go out on a limb and go with 0-12” for the win. Yeah, I can see that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Yup ...all apologies conferred ... I looked for a thread this morning and did not find one re late week. I did mention recently I was intending to start one if I did not see one by this morning... I looked for it, didn't see it. May have been a timing thing - both doing it.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yup ...all apologies conferred ... I looked for a thread this morning and did not find one re late week. I did mention recently I was intending to start one if I did not see one by this morning... I looked for it, didn't see it. May have been a timing thing - both doing it.. You’re fine. You probably started your long post before he made his. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Thread wars 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: That doesn’t mean no snow. Lol. NOP has been boned all season...god forbid one moderate event focuses there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I can see something like that. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Lots of confident posters this morning 5 days out. Super cold antecedent conditions with a very very strong anchored HP.Not your daddys SWFE. Precip numbers should be higher than normal. More snow more ice. Miller B??? Yep, this could easily turn into a Miller B with snowfall totals much higher than typical swfes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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