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February 2022 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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I remember the lil 1-2 incher back in December (first snow of the year for us)…we all thought that was going north too…and everybody kept saying the same thing, and it never really did.  A few runs it did, but then slid south and we pretty much lost it..save for the 1-2” that got us on the board.  This year I don’t trust anything…especially at 5 days out. 

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6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I remember the lil 1-2 incher back in December (first snow of the year for us)…we all thought that was going north too…and everybody kept saying the same thing, and it never really did.  A few runs it did, but then slid south and we pretty much lost it..save for the 1-2” that got us on the board.  This year I don’t trust anything…especially at 5 days out. 

Lots of confident posters this morning 5 days out. Super cold antecedent conditions with a very very strong anchored HP.Not your daddys SWFE. Precip numbers should be higher than normal. More snow more ice. Miller B???

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lots of confident posters this morning 5 days out. Super cold antecedent conditions with a very very strong anchored HP.Not your daddys SWFE. Precip numbers should be higher than normal. More snow more ice. Miller B???

Looks like my Daddy’s SWFE to me. 

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30 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yes but I'm afraid this keep coming north. 

That's how it goes sometimes though there's a limit given the extensive high pressure up north. 

It wouldn't surprise me if the cold press was stronger but the wave could also amp up.

It's tough to get a lot of snow south this time of year without strong Atlantic blocking.

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5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

What’s up with upton being so bullish on snow for southern CT?? I think it’s foolish to be so confident either way with this one considering it’s a full 4.5 days out still . Like will said for us in SNE we want this to be south now considering last second usual trends north. 

And it’s already north on everything except the GFS. Feb 4

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16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lots of confident posters this morning 5 days out. Super cold antecedent conditions with a very very strong anchored HP.Not your daddys SWFE. Precip numbers should be higher than normal. More snow more ice. Miller B???

These generally have a max upside of 10-12”.    What are you thinking?

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

And it’s already north on everything except the GFS. Feb 4

But it’s 5 days out so this too will morph, that high looks like it means businesses.  Everybody said this exact same thing in December. Now I realize that this is different…one thing different is the big high this time that looks anchored in. I agree with Seymour…we shouldn’t be too confident in either direction.  If one thing this winter has shown us, it is it’s ability to buck the expected trend.  

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

But it’s 5 days out so this too will morph, that high looks like it means businesses.  Everybody said this exact same thing in December. Now I realize that this is different…one thing different is the big high this time that looks anchored in. I agree with Seymour…we shouldn’t be too confident in either direction.  If one thing this winter has shown us, it is it’s ability to buck the expected trend.  

Are you talking about the Xmas Eve deal?

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17 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

These generally have a max upside of 10-12”.    What are you thinking?

Ratios for places like you and Brian Jeff.  I would'nt be surprised if we see some 15 to 18 totals when all is said and done.They come north UNLESS they Miller B..... 5 days out Ens Mean

 

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_ne (1).png

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Are you talking about the Xmas Eve deal?

No Kev, the one before that.  That was all everybody was saying/thinking too with that…things like, it’ll bump north, they always do etc…it never did. It actually went the opposite way, and we got very little, but it got us on the board. That was the one where me and Luke went back and forth. Lol.  
 

 

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

No Kev, the one before that.  That was all everybody was saying/thinking too with that…things like, it’ll bump north, they always do etc…it never did. It actually went the opposite way, and we got very little, but it got us on the board. That was the one where me and Luke went back and forth. Lol.  
 

 

This will not trend much further north due to the strong high up north. There will be a limit. 

 

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Just now, MJO812 said:

This will not trend much further north due to the strong high up north. There will be a limit. 

 

Well this is a valid point.
 

But I’m also not too confident with anything this winter. This winter has humbled and surprised a lot of us, and not in a good way more often than not. This is gonna morph some more most likely going forward…5 days out is a long time especially this winter. 

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6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

This is so beautiful heading into March. March 12 lol. March is not a winter month, winter is over, last snow we see etc etc. The fail army came out in full force this year. Where is our non resident Met?

500h_anom-mean.na.png

850tw-mean.na.png

that could produce swfe, miller b, and even phasers witha split flow timed right.  Friday starts 3 week winter stretch, maybe 4.

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well this is a valid point.
 

But I’m also not too confident with anything this winter. This winter has humbled and surprised a lot of us, and not in a good way more often than not. This is gonna morph some more most likely going forward…5 days out is a long time especially this winter. 

With the last storm ,the models were still trending a day before lol

The models have sucked a few days out this winter. I'm not sure why .

I wouldn't be shocked if this did trend north or even trend south due to lack of blocking and a positive AO.

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