78Blizzard Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, George001 said: The geps doubled down, this system is loaded with moisture. That’s a big area of 1+ inches qpf on a mean. This far out that’s a huge signal. Will the storm track likely be north of the gfs? Yeah, but that’s a good thing. Gfs is south of ideal. I’d like to see the Euro and eps bump south some, but the geps look really good. Euro looks good track wise but it is kind of weak with limited moisture. Imo we will see op runs start beefing up the QPF as we get closer to the storm, with this evolving into a something more significant than a typical swfe. The question is how much of that QPF is snow. And aren't we always told to look at the ensembles, not the op... 6-7 days out? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Gfs op is the snowiest member for Brooklyn NY lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 36 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: how's that lost? looks great Lost ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 31 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's going to be hilarious when the gfs wins another storm. What did it ever win? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 21 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: And aren't we always told to look at the ensembles, not the op... 6-7 days out? Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 21 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: And aren't we always told to look at the ensembles, not the op... 6-7 days out? Except we don’t usually look at the GEPS. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 George, are you joining the navy or is the new avatar in deference to the old nogaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 41 minutes ago, George001 said: The geps doubled down, this system is loaded with moisture. That’s a big area of 1+ inches qpf on a mean. This far out that’s a huge signal. Will the storm track likely be north of the gfs? Yeah, but that’s a good thing. Gfs is south of ideal. I’d like to see the Euro and eps bump south some, but the geps look really good. Euro looks good track wise but it is kind of weak with limited moisture. Imo we will see op runs start beefing up the QPF as we get closer to the storm, with this evolving into a something more significant than a typical swfe. The question is how much of that QPF is snow. Sell QPF over an inch with mid levels west...I don't care if they all show it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 22 minutes ago, dendrite said: Except we don’t usually look at the GEPS. lol True, but the GEFS looks even better to me. So again, let's look at the ensembles if not the op. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: It's going to be hilarious when the gfs wins another storm. What's the NYC forum saying about it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: What's the NYC forum saying about it? I wish he'd hang there more often 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 47 minutes ago, weathafella said: George, are you joining the navy or is the new avatar in deference to the old nogaps? Old nogaps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 30 minutes ago, PhineasC said: What's the NYC forum saying about it? The subforum is pretty boring 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wish he'd hang there more often It's fine when he posts here regarding SNE storms, but it's kind of silly to be here making weenie posts disagreeing with everyone and claiming a NYC jackpot is coming because the GFS says so. Take that noise to the NY forum. 1 1 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Come on now. Anthony adds a lot to our forum. He’s the best weenie from the other subforums. He posts lots of maps and he’s a nice guy 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 I'm glad there's something in the pipeline to look at. If it fails, then we are running out of time for a last hurrah. As I recall however, there was one Advisory-level or Low-Level warning event in March 2021? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: +300 DM anomaly at H5 over the EPO region on the 360h EPS today. That is crazy. What are the odds that actually happens? Probably low…right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 00z GFS substantially north at the end of the week… btw, ICON was 6-8” crisped over with ice at 00z - fwiw probably should have a thread going for this. Meant to set it up this afternoon but got pulled back into life. Heh. I will in the morning if that hasn’t happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 19F here and very windy. Currently watching the women's 30k freestyle in Beijing. There it's 7F and windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 USA just took silver for the women's 30k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 39 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: 00z GFS substantially north at the end of the week… btw, ICON was 6-8” crisped over with ice at 00z - fwiw probably should have a thread going for this. Meant to set it up this afternoon but got pulled back into life. Heh. I will in the morning if that hasn’t happened If "substantially" is 20 miles or so, ok. But CMC was 20 miles south. That was comparing at hr 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 3 hours ago, mahk_webstah said: Come on now. Anthony adds a lot to our forum. He’s the best weenie from the other subforums. He posts lots of maps and he’s a nice guy Yeah I’m glad he’s posting here. Always positive, never loses hope even when the models trend the wrong way and the setup doesn’t favor snow in NYC. His positive energy is a great addition to this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 I don’t want positive energy. I want reality and science here. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 21 minutes ago, George001 said: Yeah I’m glad he’s posting here. Always positive, never loses hope even when the models trend the wrong way and the setup doesn’t favor snow in NYC. His positive energy is a great addition to this forum. I’d rather not be in a virtual cheerleading competition. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 16 minutes ago, dendrite said: I don’t want positive energy. I want reality and science here. So you’re not gonna where the #1 foam finger at George’s next pep rally? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 26 minutes ago, dendrite said: I don’t want positive energy. I want reality and science here. Yeah that’s fair. There needs to be a balance, like it would be dumb to call for a blizzard in July or when the models are locked in on a big Rainer with a storm cutting to Wisconsin like 24 hours out. However you can be realistic and still bring positive energy. For us weenies tracking is part of the fun. It’s nice to see positive trends and seeing others sharing that excitement even if us weenies know in the back of our minds it may not happen that way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Speaking of positive trends, the Canadian looks good. More of a traditional swfe rather than a swfe/Miller B hybrid, but it’s a colder solution with a widespread 6-10 before mixing comes in. For the higher end solutions like I was talking about earlier, we would need more aggressive secondary redevelopment and more favorable trends with the mid levels as well. 6-10 is still a good storm though, and it makes sense to lean that way rather than the bigger solutions right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 5 hours ago, mahk_webstah said: Come on now. Anthony adds a lot to our forum. He’s the best weenie from the other subforums. He posts lots of maps and he’s a nice guy I like him, I just don't care for the NYC perspective lens...just post the maps and save that. That's all I meant....I worded that more harshly than I meant to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 I like the Friday threat, but man the following threat looks even better. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 6z GFS still looks good for the end of the week deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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