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February 2022 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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3 minutes ago, George001 said:

image.thumb.png.ab9e4514fcbc0bd0015e7c425187dd0b.png

The geps doubled down, this system is loaded with moisture. That’s a big area of 1+ inches qpf on a mean. This far out that’s a huge signal. Will the storm track likely be north of the gfs? Yeah, but that’s a good thing. Gfs is south of ideal. I’d like to see the Euro and eps bump south some, but the geps look really good. Euro looks good track wise but it is kind of weak with limited moisture. Imo we will see op runs start beefing up the QPF as we get closer to the storm, with this evolving into a something more significant than a typical swfe. The question is how much of that QPF is snow.

And aren't we always told to look at the ensembles, not the op... 6-7 days out?

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41 minutes ago, George001 said:

image.thumb.png.ab9e4514fcbc0bd0015e7c425187dd0b.png

The geps doubled down, this system is loaded with moisture. That’s a big area of 1+ inches qpf on a mean. This far out that’s a huge signal. Will the storm track likely be north of the gfs? Yeah, but that’s a good thing. Gfs is south of ideal. I’d like to see the Euro and eps bump south some, but the geps look really good. Euro looks good track wise but it is kind of weak with limited moisture. Imo we will see op runs start beefing up the QPF as we get closer to the storm, with this evolving into a something more significant than a typical swfe. The question is how much of that QPF is snow.

Sell QPF over an inch with mid levels west...I don't care if they all show it. 

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00z GFS substantially north at the end of the week… 

btw, ICON was 6-8” crisped over with ice at 00z - fwiw

probably should have a thread going for this. Meant to set it up this afternoon but got pulled back into life. Heh. I will in the morning if that hasn’t happened 

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39 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

00z GFS substantially north at the end of the week… 

btw, ICON was 6-8” crisped over with ice at 00z - fwiw

probably should have a thread going for this. Meant to set it up this afternoon but got pulled back into life. Heh. I will in the morning if that hasn’t happened 

If "substantially" is 20 miles or so, ok.  But CMC was 20 miles south.  That was comparing at hr 120.

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3 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

Come on now.  Anthony adds a lot to our forum.  He’s the best weenie from the other subforums.  He posts lots of maps and he’s a nice guy

Yeah I’m glad he’s posting here. Always positive, never loses hope even when the models trend the wrong way and the setup doesn’t favor snow in NYC. His positive energy is a great addition to this forum.

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26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I don’t want positive energy. I want reality and science here.

Yeah that’s fair. There needs to be a balance, like it would be dumb to call for a blizzard in July or when the models are locked in on a big Rainer with a storm cutting to Wisconsin like 24 hours out. However you can be realistic and still bring positive energy. For us weenies tracking is part of the fun. It’s nice to see positive trends and seeing others sharing that excitement even if us weenies know in the back of our minds it may not happen that way. 

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Speaking of positive trends, the Canadian looks good. More of a traditional swfe rather than a swfe/Miller B hybrid, but it’s a colder solution with a widespread 6-10 before mixing comes in. For the higher end solutions like I was talking about earlier, we would need more aggressive secondary redevelopment and more favorable trends with the mid levels as well. 6-10 is still a good storm though, and it makes sense to lean that way rather than the bigger solutions right now. 

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5 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

Come on now.  Anthony adds a lot to our forum.  He’s the best weenie from the other subforums.  He posts lots of maps and he’s a nice guy

I like him, I just don't care for the NYC perspective lens...just post the maps and save that. That's all I meant....I worded that more harshly than I meant to.

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