Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 There's actually some risk for that interplay/stream mechanics in that range ... That's a subsume model capture scenario. ( 1978 et al), and typically happens when the over-arching blocking moves over the N-W territories of Canadian. The problem is the flow is too compressed in the TV, such that when the N/stream SPV fragment attempts to come down, the uber velocity flow is stripping the baroclinic instability leaving only modest cyclonic response struggling to back west near the MA. The old Miami rule in full effect. I guess having 580 heights to Macon GA is a bit too hot for digging. Seems the initial tendency to tuck the flow back SW up through about D7 is causing the Gulf to ridge too much... I'm tired. I think I'm ready for summer lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 12z GFS is laughable: cutter, suppression, suppression, cutter. Blending other guidance its probably more like: Cutter, SWFE, Suppression, Cutter. Just end it already. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: I wonder why they don’t supplement this with actual obs from first order sites. It has BOS at 31” when they are actually over 40”. Looks accurate for Merrimack valley..it has Lowell at 29", and I'm 28.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Man... the end of that Euro run was sooo close to fixing everyone's seasonal snow fall deficits Ten days from now fits for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Ten days from now fits for me. Lol .. yeah, 'course... yet another way of looking at it, if a big solution is going to happen it's gotta start showing up at some point. There's no easy calls in this business - certainly not this year... I mean, some years, yeah ... you can kind of pick these up and a week or more out in space and time, and they'll behave reasonably well. Other years, they just won't. No matter how bright a signal is, it turns out to be the sun-dog and not the star. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 30 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: 12z GFS is laughable: cutter, suppression, suppression, cutter. Blending other guidance its probably more like: Cutter, SWFE, Suppression, Cutter. Just end it already. Congrats on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Congrats on Friday. Been so long since we had a true SWFE that I can’t remember if the default is 4-6 or 6-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 +300 DM anomaly at H5 over the EPO region on the 360h EPS today. That is crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 33 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Been so long since we had a true SWFE that I can’t remember if the default is 4-6 or 6-8. How about 4-8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Funny how SNE lost Friday . I’m not surprised 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Funny how SNE lost Friday . I’m not surprised Uh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Funny how SNE lost Friday . I’m not surprised It did? Looks like thump is coming 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Funny how SNE lost Friday . I’m not surprised What in the hell are you talking about? Nothing has changed on Friday for like 3 days. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: What in the hell are you talking about? Nothing has changed on Friday for like 3 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: What in the hell are you talking about? Nothing has changed on Friday for like 3 days. Heavy day drinking. Sloppy, agitated, and depressed…so sad to see. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: What in the hell are you talking about? Nothing has changed on Friday for like 3 days. 21 minutes ago, weathafella said: It did? Looks like thump is coming 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Heavy day drinking. Sloppy, agitated, and depressed…so sad to see. Put the chewies away Lucas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: What in the hell are you talking about? Nothing has changed on Friday for like 3 days. He'll hug anything that gives him ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: He'll hug anything that gives him ice Enjoy the sleet Raymond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Enjoy the sleet Raymond Probably some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Betcha the next main cycle run of the Euro that D10er comes in more proficient 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Keep hugging the CMC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Canadian has some front end before a changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 19, 2022 Author Share Posted February 19, 2022 47 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Put the chewies away Lucas how's that lost? looks great 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Keep doubting the gfs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Keep doubting the gfs I will. It's on its own. GGEM, EC, UK are all similar and the GEFS are quite a bit more north/warmer than the op. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: I will. It's on its own. GGEM, EC, UK are all similar and the GEFS are quite a bit more north/warmer than the op. Ec came flatter at 12z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 It's going to be hilarious when the gfs wins another storm. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's going to be hilarious when the gfs wins another storm. It will, but it won't be next Friday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 19, 2022 Author Share Posted February 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: It will, but it won't be next Friday. believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 The geps doubled down, this system is loaded with moisture. That’s a big area of 1+ inches qpf on a mean. This far out that’s a huge signal. Will the storm track likely be north of the gfs? Yeah, but that’s a good thing. Gfs is south of ideal. I’d like to see the Euro and eps bump south some, but the geps look really good. Euro looks good track wise but it is kind of weak with limited moisture. Imo we will see op runs start beefing up the QPF as we get closer to the storm, with this evolving into a something more significant than a typical swfe. The question is how much of that QPF is snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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