Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

February 2022 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
 Share

Recommended Posts

12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Pretty outrageous run to run change though… like 600 miles 

Eh, it was a D5-6 prog that changed. I’d be more impressed if it was inside of 100 hours. I remember even back in its heyday, the euro had the 12/19/08 storm as a 60F cutter trough Ottawa at 138 hours. Next run it was a snowstorm and more or less held serve for the next 5 days. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, powderfreak said:

Hopefully it holds at least in the colder trends... sometimes I feel like we see these mid-range burps where the boundary presses a lot further south and then in the end the system essentially resembles a cutter even up here.  I mean it was a straight St Lawrence Valley rainer at day 7-10.  We are getting some sag now but how much of it is real is the question.

Even before that it was cutting up through the Lakes deep into Canada and putting us well into the atmospheric river warm sector. Looked horrendous. So the overall trend for like a week has been south on it. But the current solutions may be a tad too far south, as you noted.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Even before that it was cutting up through the Lakes deep into Canada and putting us well into the atmospheric river warm sector. Looked horrendous. So the overall trend for like a week has been south on it. But the current solutions may be a tad too far south, as you noted.

Way out in time but you don’t get this model consistency out of a coastal storm… it’s actually fairly ridiculous how clustered the 12z runs are.  It’ll change but wild too see *that* much consistency.  There will be some precip event in the northeast late week.

GFS/EURO/GGEM/ICON even onboard.

1C949E2A-E288-434F-823A-53C772CC744F.thumb.png.7a2547a0188aa5b134c9f26e55c9e7bd.png

25B6AC2C-8E51-4A14-98B8-155110568827.thumb.png.0bf2ffe044ca7804f0e01b022d2ca909.png

D55843DF-DA40-40DE-8F86-408A2A5295ED.thumb.png.14511ff51aa989c1c22c5a282a341aea.png

76A18B8E-1E35-43D3-8C6E-D604CD3C3793.thumb.png.004f028b3afd2a8784fad58976d6f185.png

 

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Eh, it was a D5-6 prog that changed. I’d be more impressed if it was inside of 100 hours. I remember even back in its heyday, the euro had the 12/19/08 storm as a 60F cutter trough Ottawa at 138 hours. Next run it was a snowstorm and more or less held serve for the next 5 days. 

Sandy gave the Euro a mystique that was probably never quite deserved to the extent it was granted.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Sandy gave the Euro a mystique that was probably never quite deserved to the extent it was granted.

Yes that definitely really helped amplify the narrative…even the mainstream media was talking about it. 
 

Also, we never really tracked threats outside of day 5 seriously back in the day…and given that there weren’t a plethora of clown maps from the euro back then, people just didn’t really focus or spend time on a random Euro snowstorm at 150 hours out unless it showed up 2-3 runs in a row. So if one run moved 300 miles at day 6, nobody really made a huge fuss about it. 
 

Nowadays, with 25 different clown maps floating around, we can be sure half of them get posted if the model is showing a big solution 6 or 7 days out and then they facilitated a bunch of discussion on it…and then when the inevitable rug-pull happens the next run or two, you get a few tantrums talking about how crappy the model is. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

With lead times D5+ all it is ENS all the way. They tend to bounce less in both strength and location. You'll have a better handle on situation and less angst.

 

Even they aren't great for anything other than general pattern recognition

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't mind it TBH....the time spent blogging/snowfall ratio has been excruciating this season...with the family returning on Wednesday, I would not mind a non event.

Happy day Wednesday then!  Awesome.

I just don't want it to rain for my students for ski club.  I don't want to postpone again since we had to last week due to a bus driver shortage.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Happy day Wednesday then!  Awesome.

I just don't want it to rain for my students for ski club.  I don't want to postpone again since we had to last week due to a bus driver shortage.

I would like one simple, 2-3"QPF bomb with 10:1 ratios to track over the cape with seasonable cold in place...all I ask. No dumbbell this, boobs that, substinence here, convections chasers bleh.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Eh, it was a D5-6 prog that changed. I’d be more impressed if it was inside of 100 hours. I remember even back in its heyday, the euro had the 12/19/08 storm as a 60F cutter trough Ottawa at 138 hours. Next run it was a snowstorm and more or less held serve for the next 5 days. 

That was an underrated storm.

Got a foot from that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Even before that it was cutting up through the Lakes deep into Canada and putting us well into the atmospheric river warm sector. Looked horrendous. So the overall trend for like a week has been south on it. But the current solutions may be a tad too far south, as you noted.

Yeah and the EPS came in with us on the southern side of it... the snow axis in the means is definitely north and up the St Lawrence Valley.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-neng-total_snow_10to1-4170400.thumb.png.88eefa3ba20ada84eeb8171d95830152.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You know, I was plowing in our loader for about 16 hours, I was happy it didn't go out to sea  and we would have never heard  the end. Depends , but I heard my city (ASH) got 8.5", one report said 9.5", the wind was tough, with that said, I was happy we got "snow" I'm sitting at about 20" so far, February could be a great snow month, plus my birthday is on the 11th!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...