Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Shades of 96? Huge snower and pack to huge cutter / screamer rains to Maines. I know this doesn’t show that , but if there starts to be ensembles support it’s a big worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Pretty outrageous run to run change though… like 600 miles Eh, it was a D5-6 prog that changed. I’d be more impressed if it was inside of 100 hours. I remember even back in its heyday, the euro had the 12/19/08 storm as a 60F cutter trough Ottawa at 138 hours. Next run it was a snowstorm and more or less held serve for the next 5 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Just now, powderfreak said: Hopefully it holds at least in the colder trends... sometimes I feel like we see these mid-range burps where the boundary presses a lot further south and then in the end the system essentially resembles a cutter even up here. I mean it was a straight St Lawrence Valley rainer at day 7-10. We are getting some sag now but how much of it is real is the question. Even before that it was cutting up through the Lakes deep into Canada and putting us well into the atmospheric river warm sector. Looked horrendous. So the overall trend for like a week has been south on it. But the current solutions may be a tad too far south, as you noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Shades of 96 that run. Doubtful given the EPS didn’t support anything like that, but southern systems always make you worry That is nothing like ‘96. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Even before that it was cutting up through the Lakes deep into Canada and putting us well into the atmospheric river warm sector. Looked horrendous. So the overall trend for like a week has been south on it. But the current solutions may be a tad too far south, as you noted. Way out in time but you don’t get this model consistency out of a coastal storm… it’s actually fairly ridiculous how clustered the 12z runs are. It’ll change but wild too see *that* much consistency. There will be some precip event in the northeast late week. GFS/EURO/GGEM/ICON even onboard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Eh, it was a D5-6 prog that changed. I’d be more impressed if it was inside of 100 hours. I remember even back in its heyday, the euro had the 12/19/08 storm as a 60F cutter trough Ottawa at 138 hours. Next run it was a snowstorm and more or less held serve for the next 5 days. Sandy gave the Euro a mystique that was probably never quite deserved to the extent it was granted. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Sandy gave the Euro a mystique that was probably never quite deserved to the extent it was granted. Yes that definitely really helped amplify the narrative…even the mainstream media was talking about it. Also, we never really tracked threats outside of day 5 seriously back in the day…and given that there weren’t a plethora of clown maps from the euro back then, people just didn’t really focus or spend time on a random Euro snowstorm at 150 hours out unless it showed up 2-3 runs in a row. So if one run moved 300 miles at day 6, nobody really made a huge fuss about it. Nowadays, with 25 different clown maps floating around, we can be sure half of them get posted if the model is showing a big solution 6 or 7 days out and then they facilitated a bunch of discussion on it…and then when the inevitable rug-pull happens the next run or two, you get a few tantrums talking about how crappy the model is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 With lead times D5+ all it is ENS all the way. They tend to bounce less in both strength and location. You'll have a better handle on situation and less angst. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 12 minutes ago, ROOSTA said: With lead times D5+ all it is ENS all the way. They tend to bounce less in both strength and location. You'll have a better handle on situation and less angst. Even they aren't great for anything other than general pattern recognition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 52 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That is nothing like ‘96. I can feel the disdain and anger in this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Looking cold long term so if we can cook up some moisture we will be money first half of Feb at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Going to change a million times Yup---we'll get a new look each run. Some will be a cold rain and some will be a cool rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 I was gonna go all in for snow, Kevin style, but Chris in the GYX long term 2 days ago said it would be mostly rain, and Brian Scott wWill etc are not too impresssed. That’s usually a sign. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Half an inch to an inch (or more) of rain... yay I don't mind it TBH....the time spent blogging/snowfall ratio has been excruciating this season...with the family returning on Wednesday, I would not mind a non event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't mind it TBH....the time spent blogging/snowfall ratio has been excruciating this season...with the family returning on Wednesday, I would not mind a non event. Happy day Wednesday then! Awesome. I just don't want it to rain for my students for ski club. I don't want to postpone again since we had to last week due to a bus driver shortage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Happy day Wednesday then! Awesome. I just don't want it to rain for my students for ski club. I don't want to postpone again since we had to last week due to a bus driver shortage. I would like one simple, 2-3"QPF bomb with 10:1 ratios to track over the cape with seasonable cold in place...all I ask. No dumbbell this, boobs that, substinence here, convections chasers bleh. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Dryslot Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Eh, it was a D5-6 prog that changed. I’d be more impressed if it was inside of 100 hours. I remember even back in its heyday, the euro had the 12/19/08 storm as a 60F cutter trough Ottawa at 138 hours. Next run it was a snowstorm and more or less held serve for the next 5 days. That was an underrated storm. Got a foot from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 57 minutes ago, ROOSTA said: With lead times D5+ all it is ENS all the way. They tend to bounce less in both strength and location. You'll have a better handle on situation and less angst. Seems like you're missing this stuff, I know you had to move down there but this is the fun part of winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would like one simple, 2-3"QPF bomb with 10:1 ratios to track over the cape...all I ask. No dumbbell this, boobs that, substinence here, convections chasers bleh. We'll get it in April 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: We'll get it in April Yea, you and ORH will get 2', and I'll get a 1/2" of slush 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 23 minutes ago, weathafella said: I can feel the disdain and anger in this post. I mean, that was an all-timer. Like 60F dews and severe wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 14 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Yup---we'll get a new look each run. Some will be a cold rain and some will be a cool rain. accurate maybe the interior has a chance for rain to ice but this looks like a rainier to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't mind it TBH....the time spent blogging/snowfall ratio has been excruciating this season...with the family returning on Wednesday, I would not mind a non event. Do the wife and kids love snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 hour ago, PhineasC said: Even before that it was cutting up through the Lakes deep into Canada and putting us well into the atmospheric river warm sector. Looked horrendous. So the overall trend for like a week has been south on it. But the current solutions may be a tad too far south, as you noted. Yeah and the EPS came in with us on the southern side of it... the snow axis in the means is definitely north and up the St Lawrence Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Just now, DavisStraight said: Do the wife and kids love snow? Wife not so much...son has never seen it. Seems like daughter may have a bit of an interest...they are so young, yet... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 You know, I was plowing in our loader for about 16 hours, I was happy it didn't go out to sea and we would have never heard the end. Depends , but I heard my city (ASH) got 8.5", one report said 9.5", the wind was tough, with that said, I was happy we got "snow" I'm sitting at about 20" so far, February could be a great snow month, plus my birthday is on the 11th! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 10 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said: That was an underrated storm. Got a foot from that. I had like 21"..there were dual events IIRC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Yeah op def the outlier in the Euro suite . 6 days to go . Nothing will change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 with the deep snowpack over SE NE, let's get a heavy rain/flooder to shake things up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Some of you guys are too funny... you guys are as erratic as the model of our. I'm not worried either way. We got rain we get rain, when we get snow we'll get snow. Something will happen again before the winter is over. Plus, we're just too far out from then to worry about it at this moment 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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