CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Ridge is def further east on this EPS run for the pattern post-2/25. Then it retrogrades a bit back but into an excellent position still and it's associated with split flow. Yeah...cheer on the EPS this time...LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: EPO ridging without the PNA is a "let me the fu*k out" pattern here....especially late in the season. Compression again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Just now, EastonSN+ said: GEFS and GEPS coming more in line. Not liking the SE ridge. Again does align with the MJO. We shall see. Some minor + anomalies aren't a bad thing. I don't want the storm track off Virginia Beach either. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: GEFS and GEPS coming more in line. Not liking the SE ridge. Again does align with the MJO. We shall see. I mean... it's still a pretty active overrunning pattern. lower than average heights in SE Canada and probably lots of sfc HP due to the -EPO. a weak 500mb SE ridge isn't a death knell by any means with the EPO domain looking like that if I was from NYC north I would 100% take my chances with that 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Compression again? No, its just allows systems to track further in than many would want. I'm not saying that is what happens or what guidance shows....just speaking theoretically. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 It's hard to have a crap pattern with 200+ DM anomalies at H5 over Yukon/NW territories. If you keep shifting the ridge westward over the Bering Strait and then shove a deep trough into the four corners, then I'd be a little more concerned. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 You could probably thread that out for CNE/NNE for snow mix of low to moderate impact Tuesday... higher confidence N. Granted less interest/ traffic from us down here in the southern crew, but in the interest of objective awareness spanning our large subforum..etc. That high pressure up there is in every f member of GEFs and excuse me, but long years of experience tells me that the BL resistance there is at minimum not enough and perhaps just wrong. Give the thread medium confidence, but it's worth it because Brian could end up with .35" accretion and it's only D4. I like a mid confidence thread for Friday/end of the week. Very coherent signal in all ens means implies cross-guidance support - at this range, that's pretty damn good. In fact, the existence of a winter storm over the E is backed by strong signal derived from index methodology. That's likely to be on the map. I have more confidence of that, despite the week away, than I do of icing in Lakes region of NH earlier in the week. It is unfortunately 7 day away... But, in another way of looking at it, it's only 3 days away from going from this sort of extrapolation into a better defined coherency - But you know me... when I see something I don't have much compunctions about not holding back. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: I mean... it's still a pretty active overrunning pattern. lower than average heights in SE Canada and probably lots of sfc HP due to the -EPO. a weak 500mb SE ridge isn't a death knell by any means with the EPO domain looking like that I'd take that considering how this season has gone. I'll take my chances with some se ridging. The last thing I want is another SE MA pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Some minor + anomalies aren't a bad thing. I don't want the storm track off Virginia Beach either. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 EPS is actually reloading the EPO at the end of the run too....we might be in that pattern for a while...maybe through mid-March, but we'll see if future runs break it down faster. The LR hasn't been very accurate this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I mean... it's still a pretty active overrunning pattern. lower than average heights in SE Canada and probably lots of sfc HP due to the -EPO. a weak 500mb SE ridge isn't a death knell by any means with the EPO domain looking like that if I was from NYC north I would 100% take my chances with that All of us are, thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd take that considering how this season has gone. I'll take my chances with some se ridging. The last thing I want is another SE MA pattern. We love our friends there but the season is coming to a close which leads to heightened regional warfare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Stay safe looking at models and posting on all your weather boards. ...Someone is robbing the liquor store at the corner of Malcom X and and Madison...But the 8 day clown maps are more important. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: All of us are, thanks. hey, people from different subforums come in here and it's always useful to provide context for broad geographical comments like that someone from, say, the MA could get the wrong impression otherwise 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 2 hours ago, mreaves said: For me, the bigger issue comes from tracks that get frozen into the trail. I hate getting stuck in frozen ski ruts. Seems like you are always wrestling to keep the sled going the way you want rather following someone else's tracks. Thats where I used to find myself tensing up. I find if you fight that and relax your grip its more enjoyable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: hey, people from different subforums come in here and it's always useful to provide context for broad geographical comments like that someone from, say, the MA could get the wrong impression otherwise Not a big deal, but usually the fact that its a New England sub forum gives adequate context to get a pretty good idea of the prevailing perspective lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS is actually reloading the EPO at the end of the run too....we might be in that pattern for a while...maybe through mid-March, but we'll see if future runs break it down faster. The LR hasn't been very accurate this year. One thing I have noticed is the season outcome has followed the GEFS MJO plot like a puppy dog. If true we should be in phase 7 by the 10, with phase 8 potentially by the 20th. It nailed the January pattern with phase 8 recently. It IS taking bits sweet time in 3. Conscious that there are other environment influences. The hated wheely chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 15 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: ...Someone is robbing the liquor store at the corner of Malcom X and and Madison...But the 8 day clown maps are more important. …officer Anthony is on the scene 15min late and props his laptop on the store counter at 1255am while the store owner bleeds out. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: One thing I have noticed is the season outcome has followed the GEFS MJO plot like a puppy dog. If true we should be in phase 7 by the 10, with phase 8 potentially by the 20th. It nailed the January pattern with phase 8 recently. It IS taking bits sweet time in 3. Conscious that there are other environment influences. The hated wheely chart. Can someone explain WTF I am looking at with this? Looks like something I drew with the etch-a-sketch back when I was a wee lad. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 HRRR has 4.5” per hour rates with some of the squalls tomorrow. But moves them thru in 20 minutes 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Can someone explain WTF I am looking at with this? Looks like something I drew with the etch-a-sketch back when I was a wee lad. It represents the location of the center of convection (and thus latent heat release) near the equator. The convection can build ridging, which then affects downstream pattern. You can see how ridging forced from 7/8/1 could favorably line up with -EPO and cold for our local area. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: It represents the location of the center of convection (and thus latent heat release) near the equator. The convection can build ridging, which then affects downstream pattern. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Cold Miser said: thanks. Yeah we are stuck at level 3 currently. Shorter wavelengths in March also change the downstream effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Man HRRR looks sweet for squalls. Probably lasts 5 min, but I don't recall models showing such a line like that. Was it 11-12 that had that line that the RSM nailed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Man HRRR looks sweet for squalls. Probably lasts 5 min, but I don't recall models showing such a line like that. <1/4SM visibility from CYUL to ISP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Was it 11-12 that had that line that the RSM nailed? It was the 1/28/10 event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 The old RSM members on the SREF were excellent in WINDEX events too. Too bad we still can't have them around for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It was the 1/28/10 event. 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The old RSM members on the SREF were excellent in WINDEX events too. Too bad we still can't have them around for winter. Hard to believe it was that long ago. Those RSM SREF members all went batshit crazy with that line on every run…and nailed it. I think it was the only thing they ever did well. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Just now, dendrite said: Hard to believe it was that long ago. Those RSM SREF members all went batshit crazy with that line on every run…and nailed it. I think it was the only thing they ever did well. lol Yeah they were always too amped on coastals....but they did WINDEX well. They were also good in icing events...prob mostly due to better resolution than most other guidance back then....I doubt they'd beat out the current hi res stuff in CAD nowadays. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: I mean... it's still a pretty active overrunning pattern. lower than average heights in SE Canada and probably lots of sfc HP due to the -EPO. a weak 500mb SE ridge isn't a death knell by any means with the EPO domain looking like that if I was from NYC north I would 100% take my chances with that yes we like the SE ridge, just not on steroids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now