HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Lots of ski mountains were closed today. This weekend is going to be a nightmare at most mountains. I’m heading north but mainly to see old friends so I won’t be heartbroken if we can’t ski. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 55 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: GFS with a solid overrunning event. SNE 3 to 5 before ice. CNE 6 to 10. Yup. It’s gonna be an icer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Interesting take here from the CPC's MJO desk ... particularly that last paragraph: • The magnitude of the RMM-based MJO index has increased during early February, with an enhancement of the intraseasonal signal across the Indian Ocean. • Dynamical model MJO index forecasts depict a robust MJO event propagating eastward to the Maritime Continent during the next 2 weeks. • Based on this predicted MJO and model guidance, the South Indian Ocean is likely to remain active, with an uptick in activity also possible across the southwest Pacific by the end of February.• Given the increasing likelihood that the MJO constructively interferes with La Niña, an atmospheric response typical of La Niña is expected across the mid-latitudes of the North Pacific and North America during the latter half of February and into early March. We just spent 6 weeks in a relative decoupled state between the observed mode of circulation wrt to La Nina. Why does that necessitate we suddenly see some blissful reunited ('and it feels so good') state of affairs, now? The difference there, as written.. might be as intimated, because momentum through Phases 3 - late 6, constructively interferes with the La Nina base state... The only problem there is, that is in direct conflict with the present PNA modalities from both the GEFs and EPS sources. -EPO notwithstanding... It's like their "expectation" is/was divorced(ing) from acknowledging these current prognostic tools. Not sure how to reconcile that... Ray's got some stat-based ideas on what the pattern may offer with nuances in the ENSO etc..., that more than less 'fit' those +PNA/ vestigial -EPO modes we see coming from the EOFs. This is the interesting aspect ... IF their take above occurs, what do they anticipate the pattern to become in a more proficiently coupled state? If it couples, and Ray is right...it would only add to a amplitude that does not fit Phases 3- late 6. So everything appears to be in some sort of contradictory ...or competing conceptual circumstance. Wtf - The whole thing seems like be a bag of voodoo as Scott likes to say ... Part of the problem I have with MJO and always have, and have railed about this popsicle headache for years. THE MJO DOES NOT DRIVE THE PATTERN. The pattern may be reinforced, positively or negatively, but the MJO can exist in a given phase state and it means nothing anywhere, just as much as everywhere may look like it owes its circumstance entirely to it. Not sure how one can really tell which is which and decompose qualitatively, the amounts. The only reason I'm bringing it up and laboring through prose no one will read ... is because others keep bandying the MJO prominence...And want people to pump those breaks. We don't know what the p.o.s. is going to mean. If it couples up with La Lina and together forces a pattern, the signal can go either direction based on the positive interference...so it does pretty much nothing to clarify jack shit. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Interesting take here from the CPC's MJO desk ... particularly that last paragraph: • The magnitude of the RMM-based MJO index has increased during early February, with an enhancement of the intraseasonal signal across the Indian Ocean. • Dynamical model MJO index forecasts depict a robust MJO event propagating eastward to the Maritime Continent during the next 2 weeks. • Based on this predicted MJO and model guidance, the South Indian Ocean is likely to remain active, with an uptick in activity also possible across the southwest Pacific by the end of February.• Given the increasing likelihood that the MJO constructively interferes with La Niña, an atmospheric response typical of La Niña is expected across the mid-latitudes of the North Pacific and North America during the latter half of February and into early March. We just spent 6 weeks in a relative decoupled state between the observed mode of circulation wrt to La Nina. Why does that necessitate we suddenly see some blissful reunited ('and it feels so good') state of affairs, now? The difference there, as written.. might be as intimated, because momentum through Phases 3 - late 6, constructively interferes with the La Nina base state... The only problem there is, that is in direct conflict with the present PNA modalities from both the GEFs and EPS sources. -EPO notwithstanding... It's like their "expectation" is/was divorced(ing) from acknowledging these current prognostic tools. Not sure how to reconcile that... Ray's got some stat-based ideas on what the pattern may offer with nuances in the ENSO etc..., that more than less 'fit' those +PNA/ vestigial -EPO modes we see coming from the EOFs. This is the interesting aspect ... IF their take above occurs, what do they anticipate the pattern to become in a more proficiently coupled state? If it couples, and Ray is right...it would only add to a amplitude that does not fit Phases 3- late 6. So everything appears to be in some sort of contradictory ...or competing conceptual circumstance. Wtf - The whole thing seems like be a bag of voodoo as Scott likes to say ... Part of the problem I have with MJO and always have, and have railed about this popsicle headache for years. THE MJO DOES NOT DRIVE THE PATTERN. The pattern may be reinforced, positively or negatively, but the MJO can exist in a given phase state and it means nothing anywhere, just as much as everywhere may look like it owes its circumstance entirely to it. Not sure how one can really tell which is which and decompose qualitatively, the amounts. The only reason I'm bringing it up and laboring through prose no one will read ... is because others keep bandying the MJO prominence...And want people to pump those breaks. We don't know what the p.o.s. is going to mean. If it couples up with La Lina and together forces a pattern, the signal can go either direction based on the positive interference...so it does pretty much nothing to clarify jack shit. John, I have noticed that all of the government agencies take a very lazy approach to la nina...especially with respect to longer lead times. Its always base-state, generic la nina climo....cold nw, warm SE, blah, blah. I understand that we don't have big blocking, so there is a risk, as Scott points out so diligently and incessantly, but I think they need to be a little more open minded with respect to these ENSO climo conceptualizations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Remember all of those generic, cookie-cutter, blowtorch ratter winter outlooks? This is why I knew this winter wouldn't be like that (shit interior SNE/CNE snow luck not withstanding), just as I knew 2017-2018 winter wouldn't. Not all la ninas are the same....some are stronger, some are weaker, some are more modoki, some or more east based, some are in the middle.....some are strongly coupled, some less coupled. It was always apparent that this would be near the threshold of weak-moderate, well coupled on average (yes, some variation) and biased somewhat to the east. Anyone with this insight and unlimited access to the data would not have forecast a generic la nina season. Period- 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yup. It’s gonna be an icer Start a thread? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: John, I have noticed that all of the government agencies take a very lazy approach to la nina...especially with respect to longer lead times. Its always base-state, generic la nina climo....cold nw, warm SE, blah, blah. I understand that we don't have big blocking, so there is a risk, as Scott points out so diligently and incessantly, but I think they need to be a little more open minded about this ENSO climo. yeah perhaps ... meanwhile, ENSO climo is under attack by a propensity and increasing one at that, for these decoupling eras ... It only obfuscates this further. I mentioned yesterday that I don't really have a feel, warm or cool, for March beyond about the 5th of the month. I don't see the EPS' veiny erection of heights over western Canada as being entirely stable in the guidance beyond the time frame. If this were January, perhaps... but we battle CC-related earlier break downs of seasonality, combined with experimental statistical inference... combine (enter plausibility) ... I could see getting next Friday... then a big one early March that sort of is like 2014 ? It was like the last thing that season did and week later we we were doing 60s with Forsythias. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Yea, I could def see an abrupt end to it all at some point in March....Kev and I were talking about that a couple of days ago. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Nice front end on the euro for SNE for next weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Nice front end on the euro for SNE for next weekend Pretty classic looking swfe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 1 minute ago, wx2fish said: Pretty classic looking swfe Can't buy one all winter. Maybe this is the one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Can't buy one all winter. Maybe this is the one. 12z Euro cooled off compared to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 12z Euro cooled off compared to 0z It's a week out....meaningless at this point. But the pattern def favors a colder type overrunning storm with that monster EPO ridge displaced a bit east which is supporting a monster 1040+ high over Ontario/Quebec. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 About a 10-spot ....that would honestly be more impressive than the 12" blizzard here because it would probably fall over a shorter duration. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It's a week out....meaningless at this point. But the pattern def favors a colder type overrunning storm with that monster EPO ridge displaced a bit east which is supporting a monster 1040+ high over Ontario/Quebec. Two "monster" references in one post from you...not a bad omen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Two "monster" references in one post from you...not a bad omen. Will blasting this thru the bank at his teller station 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 1 hour ago, mreaves said: For me, the bigger issue comes from tracks that get frozen into the trail. I hate getting stuck in frozen ski ruts. Seems like you are always wrestling to keep the sled going the way you want rather following someone else's tracks. I have snow trackers. It goes where you aim it, although they are not great in looser snow. But ruts may be a bigger issue than tall carbides solve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Two "monster" references in one post from you...not a bad omen. Love seeing that HP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 3 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Been pretty busy and there hasn't been much going on locally...and I've been spending some free time digging into the Northeast Snowstorm volumes. Great, you can see all the Miller As that produced from The south or Mid Atlantic up through Maine...storms of yesteryear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 1 hour ago, mreaves said: For me, the bigger issue comes from tracks that get frozen into the trail. I hate getting stuck in frozen ski ruts. Seems like you are always wrestling to keep the sled going the way you want rather following someone else's tracks. Get yourself a pair of snow trackers, You will never have the problem again with other peoples tracks or darting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 12 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: I have snow trackers. It goes where you aim it, although they are not great in looser snow. But ruts may be a bigger issue than tall carbides solve. Just saw this, Yes i as well have them, The rail on hard pack or firm trails but push a bit into corners but still better then reg carbides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 I think this is a more accurate representation inland, though probably too conservative inside of I 495 with that high, as NARCAN tends to be. General 6-10" from pike points N, and 3-6" from I 84 to the pike. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Lots of run to run changes at H5 over western NAMR which I suppose is not a surprise with this look. Nothing bad..but placement of the ridge near the PNA domain or EPO domain will matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lots of run to run changes at H5 over western NAMR which I suppose is not a surprise with this look. Nothing bad..but placement of the ridge near the PNA domain or EPO domain will matter. Well, it is bad if its more near the EPO domain because its probably more of a NNE pattern, with cold between rainers. That was 2018-2019. I know by "bad" you mean warm, but to me, bad is cold-rain-cold-rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Man HRRR looks sweet for squalls. Probably lasts 5 min, but I don't recall models showing such a line like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, it is bad if its more near the EPO domain because its probably more of a NNE pattern, with cold between rainers. That was 2018-2019. I know by "bad" you mean warm, but to me, bad is cold-rain-cold-rain. I know what you mean, but the placement of the ridge matters....you can have snowy looks there too if it can really fold into the polar domain. But yes, I am with you to a point.....I want to see that more near western NAMR. The EPS of all guidance is most favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 EPO ridging without the PNA is a "let me the fu*k out" pattern here....especially late in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I know what you mean, but the placement of the ridge matters....you can have snowy looks there too if it can really fold into the polar domain. But yes, I am with you to a point.....I want to see that more near western NAMR. The EPS of all guidance is most favorable. I'd rather not rely in the ridge extending through the north pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lots of run to run changes at H5 over western NAMR which I suppose is not a surprise with this look. Nothing bad..but placement of the ridge near the PNA domain or EPO domain will matter. Ridge is def further east on this EPS run for the pattern post-2/25. Then it retrogrades a bit back but into an excellent position still and it's associated with split flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 GEFS and GEPS coming more in line. Not liking the SE ridge. Again does align with the MJO. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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