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February 2022 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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37 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Not all of Maine.  Im heading up this afternoon….northern Maine is buried, and they are under a winter storm warning as we speak for 5-11”.   No worries from Presque Isle on up.  Southern Maine got decimated. But they always do. 

Mine is not in the best shape but it survived,

image.thumb.png.b87aa237a581c8700b1d782342907c73.png

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1 hour ago, wx2fish said:

That one was a raging cutter at one point on all globals in the longer range. I think most of them have come in flatter, except the BGM cutter. This one did too, but it just didn't matter for NE. GFS had 15" for ORD at 60-72hr, and they ended up with 4". Well see next week, has a decent look for this range though. 

yeah... that's seems to be a leitmotif with the extended --> mid range ... as a 'correction tendency' this season - whether that's merely state of modeling, or something about the circulation manifold.    I mentioned this myself when I first ventured the notion that this next Tuesday may in fact flatten - I was basing that entirely on what you said there ( bold ). 

I'm still not sold that Tuesday won't end up more icy down to southern VT/NH.  I think a weaker/flatter system feeds-back that way.   That's a huge load of polar high up there, and once those typical geographic feed-back barrier jets get going they're not likely to be correctly assessed for either onset timing or resistance from this range ( due to there sub synoptic grid resolution requirements blah blah ).    Anyway, a flatter system has less WAA thrust, so you can get cold entrenched/dammed air to more resistant from lacking ablation.  

The other moving part in guidance is the that high pressure drapery up there.  I'm seeing the guidance ( GFS) be quite sensitive between the cold wedge into S VT/NH, vs the strength of that high pressure. They moving in tandem run to run.. It's been like 3 mb and the CAD curvature backs just that little amount, the 32 isotherm goes 30 to 50 mi N.  So, much of this colder BL thinking is predicated on that high pressure being there.  If future guidance backs off signficantly/moves it off quicker to the east...fine - warm intrusion ends up CNE too.  If not... not happening James.  You got ice where you are, down to EEN-ASH.   

 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It really is amazing how one storm can wipe out snowpack to Maine . In one day . Feet wiped out 

Gone.

Last evening, I still had a bit of the "pack" in some places.  This morning it was like waking up to a desolate, waterlogged, sh.it brown landscape of doom.

Just about 6 weeks of snow on the ground. In this pattern I guess I can't complain...I could, but no one is listening. 

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19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup…I figured you’d survive there. Nice Jeff. 

.23" of rain is all we had, Got as high as 58°F, Talked to my buddy in Eustis this morning, They made it to 46 but it was back down to low 30's and snowing, Same with Jackman, They are at 20°F and snow.

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17 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Gone.

Last evening, I still had a bit of the "pack" in some places.  This morning it was like waking up to a desolate, waterlogged, sh.it brown landscape of doom.

Just about 6 weeks of snow on the ground. In this pattern I guess I can't complain...I could, but no one is listening. 

Frasier Crane

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34 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Gone.

Last evening, I still had a bit of the "pack" in some places.  This morning it was like waking up to a desolate, waterlogged, sh.it brown landscape of doom.

Just about 6 weeks of snow on the ground. In this pattern I guess I can't complain...I could, but no one is listening. 

looks great out there

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Saturday looks interesting with squalls, but it falls short of the highest events like 1/28/10. The biggest difference was an event like 2010 had saturation up to like 500mb...so you had the instability off the charts whereas tomorrow is more like up to 700mb and then it dries out above that. It's still very unstable but when you cap the cloud tops at H7 instead of H5 or higher, then it lowers the ceiling. But events like 2010 are a high bar...they happen maybe once or twice a decade.

But tomorrow does check ALL the WINDEX parameters very well so I would be surprised if there weren't widespread squalls:

1. Big T difference (lapse rate) from sfc to H7 or H5

2. LL moisture pooling ahead of the front

3. Big lift (the primitive checklist used LI spike, but we know there's good lift around with soundings these days)

4. Strong positive PVA to help enhance the lift and concentrate it

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