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February 2022 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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13 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Euro looks fine for northern areas.

I am good at staying cold enough to snow even if mix gets nearby. Lends support to GFS for sure.

UKMET is an outlier big time now.

We watch.

With coastals the risk is always too far east... with these it's that it turns into a cutter like it was modeled a few days ago.  We've had some big snows in the past decade though from sagging frontal boundaries that get just far enough and then have a wave ride along them after a bunch of overrunning mixed precip.

ecmwf-deterministic-neng-total_snow_10to1-4148800.thumb.png.cb14cd4bf1c35adf5e46f1191eccd6e8.png

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6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

In this situation if the high is stout it will trend colder in the last 48hrs even if it’s ice not snow.

Problem is we’re advecting in from the NW…this isn’t a backdoor high from ME deal.  I think we have to just hope for colder trends overall.

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6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Not that that would bother you…

Hopefully it holds at least in the colder trends... sometimes I feel like we see these mid-range burps where the boundary presses a lot further south and then in the end the system essentially resembles a cutter even up here.  I mean it was a straight St Lawrence Valley rainer at day 7-10.  We are getting some sag now but how much of it is real is the question and at Day 2-3 is it congrats interior Ontario lol.

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