February 2022 Obs/Disco

[dendrite]

35 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Pretty big difference tomorrow between the nam/gfs and euro. Nam/gfs are pretty wedged most of the day, while the euro has much less CAD. I'd probably lean more wedged, but since most areas will spike by evening, it'll still go in the books as high in the 50s. Dendy might stay wedged into early Wednesday morning. 

I hve fully expected it here tomorrow, but with the way it’s going I may wedge today.  This cloud deck is hell.

[Typhoon Tip]

34 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Pretty big difference tomorrow between the nam/gfs and euro. Nam/gfs are pretty wedged most of the day, while the euro has much less CAD. I'd probably lean more wedged, but since most areas will spike by evening, it'll still go in the books as high in the 50s. Dendy might stay wedged into early Wednesday morning. 

I think today may mangle the guidance some on that... 

What I mean is, we're likely to over-achieve by a little, with this unabated solar going on through a modestly mixing +5 C at 925 mb ( assuming that's the BL height, but it could be a wee-bit higher...)...etc..etc... and MET was ( last checked - ) 49 at ASH ( which is what I use considering it's like 10 minutes as the crow flies from Ayer).  We are already 45 at enough home sites/Wunder network and by sensible appeal to go ahead and assume we challenge that high pretty much by noon already.   Digress...   but this air mass may factor in the the BL mechanics of those guidance when we initialize later today - interesting to see if that happens.  They are in situ, so if the initializations are cooler than is actual, it might be a red flag that this is a rare scenario where wedging in SE NH actually fails some. 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I hve fully expected it here tomorrow, but with the way it’s going I may wedge today.  This cloud deck is hell.

Oh, I didn't see that Brian - ha.

Yeah, that's a bitch... In fact, that's settling S... I wonder

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah, that looks like orographic forcing.  You live by mountain life and you get the life sometimes I guess -

[PhineasC]

Meanwhile here it's 40 and torch city.

I will not have much snow if any left after Wednesday.

[qg_omega]

17 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Meanwhile here it's 40 and torch city.

I will not have much snow if any left after Wednesday.

Central Park colder 

[wx2fish]

28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think today may mangle the guidance some on that... 

What I mean is, we're likely to over-achieve by a little, with this unabated solar going on through a modestly mixing +5 C at 925 mb ( assuming that's the BL height, but it could be a wee-bit higher...)...etc..etc... and MET was ( last checked - ) 49 at ASH ( which is what I use considering it's like 10 minutes as the crow flies from Ayer).  We are already 45 at enough home sites/Wunder network and by sensible appeal to go ahead and assume we challenge that high pretty much by noon already.   Digress...   but this air mass may factor in the the BL mechanics of those guidance when we initialize later today - interesting to see if that happens.  They are in situ, so if the initializations are cooler than is actual, it might be a red flag that this is a rare scenario where wedging in SE NH actually fails some. 

There's definitely a backdoor type boundary on some of the runs, with a little surface reflection offshore. I'd welcome another warm day, but we'll see what happens. 

 

Airmass is pretty cold in ME tomorrow morning, I bet those typical CAD haunts in NH and ME take quite a while to erode. 

[Typhoon Tip]

26 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Meanwhile here it's 40 and torch city.

I will not have much snow if any left after Wednesday.

I'm curious...  that far north and climate specific region, that would be a helluva climate anomaly to remove snow all the way down to earth entirely, before March 1.   

I gotta assume already your snow is probably corn variety?  As you know.. that by virtue of density is going to take more energy to melt - like cold in the bank.   I think you'll have some left.   Either way, the anomaly is already logging -

You know ... just a "hot" take on matter.   To me it's really spring already.  I mean this is what happens in spring, early spring life in New England - you get these warm ( relative ) days, followed by snow chances.  And it's probably a kind of sneaky climate change aspect, because we would've gotten this more akin to March and April some 30 years ago.  But in 2022 and a couple of decades of hockey-stick CC acceleration ... it's starting to happen in February and March's.  So shift up.   But it's also not black and white... Just as other Febs and Mar had some fantastic warm affairs in transience over recent years ( as part of this CC suggestion - ), the variabiility that extends back into the cryo realm is still in play.   We could be 80 twice and get a blizzard on March 25 for a spring diabatic blue gem monster that pukes 52" along the spine of Whites...  and still verify a +6 F month. 

[tamarack]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm curious...  that far north and climate specific region, that would be a helluva climate anomaly to remove snow all the way down to earth entirely, before March 1.   

I gotta assume already your snow is probably corn variety?  As you know.. that by virtue of density is going to take more energy to melt - like cold in the bank.   I think you'll have some left.   Either way, the anomaly is already logging -

You know ... just a "hot" take on matter.   To me it's really spring already.  I mean this is what happens in spring, early spring life in New England - you get these warm ( relative ) days, followed by snow chances.  And it's probably a kind of sneaky climate change aspect, because we would've gotten this more akin to March and April some 30 years ago.  But in 2022 and a couple of decades of hockey-stick CC acceleration ... it's starting to happen in February and March's.  So shift up.   But it's also not black and white... Just as other Febs and Mar had some fantastic warm affairs in transience over recent years ( as part of this CC suggestion - ), the variabiility that extends back into the cryo realm is still in play.   We could be 80 twice and get a blizzard on March 25 for a spring diabatic blue gem monster that pukes 52" along the spine of Whites...  and still verify a +6 F month. 

If we can grab 7" or more by month's end, February will have AN snow and at least 5° AN temp.  A bit harder to have March with AN snow and way AN temp, but not impossible.

[Ginx snewx]

This is a great sign for continuous winter

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, tamarack said:

If we can grab 7" or more by month's end, February will have AN snow and at least 5° AN temp.  A bit harder to have March with AN snow and way AN temp, but not impossible.

It's interesting ... that combination of AN snow with AN temp - it's fitting that Phinny is extolling the frustrations of a  dwindling snow pack.  I guess buried in the averages of +5, there was sufficient melt events.    I mean, there's lots of ways to get numbers that elevated...  Persistent nightly lows being elevated.   Or a couple of isolated whopper warm spells... etc... and they melt more(less).  

Whatever the cause and method of assault, having above normal snow result in below normal pack, is an interesting achievement - particularly in any context that includes the word Maine -

[PhineasC]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm curious...  that far north and climate specific region, that would be a helluva climate anomaly to remove snow all the way down to earth entirely, before March 1.   

I gotta assume already your snow is probably corn variety?  As you know.. that by virtue of density is going to take more energy to melt - like cold in the bank.   I think you'll have some left.   Either way, the anomaly is already logging -

You know ... just a "hot" take on matter.   To me it's really spring already.  I mean this is what happens in spring, early spring life in New England - you get these warm ( relative ) days, followed by snow chances.  And it's probably a kind of sneaky climate change aspect, because we would've gotten this more akin to March and April some 30 years ago.  But in 2022 and a couple of decades of hockey-stick CC acceleration ... it's starting to happen in February and March's.  So shift up.   But it's also not black and white... Just as other Febs and Mar had some fantastic warm affairs in transience over recent years ( as part of this CC suggestion - ), the variabiility that extends back into the cryo realm is still in play.   We could be 80 twice and get a blizzard on March 25 for a spring diabatic blue gem monster that pukes 52" along the spine of Whites...  and still verify a +6 F month. 

I would assume it's pretty anomalous. 

Last winter underperformed, but this winter will put it to shame in that department with this extended torch (it's been torching since the second week of the month with a few brief interludes of cold), especially if March fizzles.

It's not just a Randolph downsloping microclimate thing either (which sometimes happens here on south winds). It's warm all around here and snow cover sucks everywhere in NNE unless you are standing on top of a mountain. 

Oh well, nothing can be done about it. I just hope I can ski into the first week of April at least. We are not in great shape for when the inevitable 70s show up in late March and start the real final meltdown.

A 50 spot in March would help.

[tamarack]

5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I would assume it's pretty anomalous. 

Last winter underperformed, but this winter will put it to shame in that department with this extended torch (it's been torching since the second week of the month with a few brief interludes of cold), especially if March fizzles.

It's not just a Randolph downsloping microclimate thing either (which sometimes happens here on south winds). It's warm all around here and snow cover sucks everywhere in NNE unless you are standing on top of a mountain. 

Or in a CAD kingdom.  Thanks to the early month snow/QPF, February's SDDs should finish close to our average, unless Friday's event either runs away south or overperforms here.

[dendrite]

Even a glimpse of sun would be appreciated today.

[CoastalWx]

40 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Even a glimpse of sun would be appreciated today.

Come on down to Napeville.

[CoastalWx]

Man all those tweets earlier this month about last days of 20s...blah blah blah. LOL. We know models can be wrong, but too many people tulip trancing to seasonal models.

[NW_of_GYX]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

I would assume it's pretty anomalous. 

Last winter underperformed, but this winter will put it to shame in that department with this extended torch (it's been torching since the second week of the month with a few brief interludes of cold), especially if March fizzles.

It's not just a Randolph downsloping microclimate thing either (which sometimes happens here on south winds). It's warm all around here and snow cover sucks everywhere in NNE unless you are standing on top of a mountain. 

Oh well, nothing can be done about it. I just hope I can ski into the first week of April at least. We are not in great shape for when the inevitable 70s show up in late March and start the real final meltdown.

A 50 spot in March would help.

70s in late March in NNE are not inevitable. The last two Marches were hot garbage and 2019 had a two week warm up before a reload in April, but 2017 and 2018 were snowy with no major warmups right through April. Shawnee's last day in 2017 was April 2nd with a 10" snow storm. And that was after 2-week torches in late Feb of both years that put this one to shame. We actually rebuilt the pack entirely during March 2018 with my biggest single day snowfall since I moved here in 2012, and April continued with the goods that year, esp. in the Northern Greens and Loaf regions. 

[PhineasC]

7 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

70s in late March in NNE are not inevitable. The last two Marches were hot garbage and 2019 had a two week warm up before a reload in April, but 2017 and 2018 were snowy with no major warmups right through April. Shawnee's last day in 2017 was April 2nd with a 10" snow storm. And that was after 2-week torches in late Feb of both years that put this one to shame. We actually rebuilt the pack entirely during March 2018 with my biggest single day snowfall since I moved here in 2012, and April continued with the goods that year, esp. in the Northern Greens and Loaf regions. 

Fingers crossed here for a March and April of yore.

Things will look pretty bleak by end of day Wednesday across NNE.

[mahk_webstah]

I keep hearing about an event for Sunday. What’s the nature of that event?

[NW_of_GYX]

6 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Fingers crossed here for a March and April of yore.

Things will look pretty bleak by end of day Wednesday across NNE.

Ugh yes. I was hiking in Crawford notch area yesterday and noticed how bleak it was in the valley areas that get the crazy downslope winds funneling in. Bartlett had what looked like 10” on the ground while higher up in the valley it was down to buffed ice. Plenty of snow above 3500’ but it’s gonna be toast down in the valleys after Wednesday. I’m supposed to go sledding in the Milan area next Sunday. That area and Nash stream seem to retain pack as well as anywhere but I’m guessing we’ll need every inch of what comes Friday to make it enjoyable. 

[dryslot]

Torch out there today.

[Typhoon Tip]

Machine guidance taking a hit today ... 

Classic spring nape job on MET, even though it's only Feb 20 ... But,  kfit, kash, kbed... were all 49 to 50, and are all presently 55, 55, 54.. probably good for a tick or two yet

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

It feels really warm out in the sun with no wind. Awesome day. Ready for spring.

[weathafella]

Shedding layers today.....beautiful day.    Not sure how I feel about a snow/sleet day Friday-tons of stuff on the calendar....

[RDRY]

This could work.

[ineedsnow]

Euro trending 

[Superstorm93]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Euro trending 

Certainly an interesting look this far out. Curious to see how the EPS handle this wave. 

 

[George001]

47 minutes ago, RDRY said:

This could work.

Overrunning to coastal? 

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah that’s the type of look that can turn into a coastal. There was a run or two that actually got us with something on the euro for that event. GFS today was a scraper. Something to watch for after the 2/25 threat. 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that’s the type of look that can turn into a coastal. There was a run or two that actually got us with something on the euro for that event. GFS today was a scraper. Something to watch for after the 2/25 threat. 

She isn’t going to let us out…