February 2022 Obs/Disco

[PhineasC]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Easiest way to get there for you is prob something like 10” to close out February next week and then a 50 spot in March and a 30 spot in April. 
 

50 inches in March there is prob not THAT anomalous. I’d bet it’s like 1 sigma above normal. 

April can be a sneaky month. I could see a big number in April and also a storm in May to pad the totals. May 2020 had a foot early in the month I think. It was right before I bought the place. Randolph does really well with marginal events that are rain all the way to Berlin but a blue bomb here.

The average here is kinda unhelpful since the winters seem to alternate between relatively lean 100-150" deals and monsters at 200-250." 

The 180" ish average number never seems to happen. It's either the lower or upper camp. Just something structurally different about the winters in each camp.

I expect this winter will be in the lower camp, obviously. One thing is for sure, based on the record here we are due for a monster winter.

[bwt3650]

33 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

March needs to crush in NNE.

I need 90" to hit average. LOL piece of cake for March?

You can borrow my jay peak ruler and be there by the end of next week?

[PhineasC]

3 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

You can borrow my jay peak ruler and be there by the end of next week?

Not even the Jay fake snow blown into a gully at 4,000' will save April unless we get some more real snow at all elevations.

It's a real shame the meaty snow we waited for that finally came mid-Jan to early Feb is already being blasted away by these cutters and now we need to rebuild.

12 degree fluff that blows away into the forests isn't going to cut it.

[moneypitmike]

Soak it in.

[Lava Rock]

Soak it in.

Just rip the bandaid off already.

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[ORH_wxman]

19 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Not even the Jay fake snow blown into a gully at 4,000' will save April unless we get some more real snow at all elevations.

It's a real shame the meaty snow we waited for that finally came mid-Jan to early Feb is already being blasted away by these cutters and now we need to rebuild.

12 degree fluff that blows away into the forests isn't going to cut it.

Luckily for the ski areas, the pattern setting up after Wednesday’s torch is one where NNE can rebuild some base and maintain it. It will be a cold pattern…not one of those “we got 6” of feathers and it was 38 degrees and sunny two days later so it all evaporated” type patterns. 
 

I’d honestly be kind of surprised if NNE doesn’t clean up the next 3 weeks based on ensemble guidance. Of course, this winter has found ways to disappoint so a screw job wouldn’t be a total shock but it would still be something that’s low probability to me.  Esp up there. 

[Lava Rock]

ACY beating GYX. 

Sad

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[ORH_wxman]

29 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Sad

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The GYX to ORH axis (including Rays area) has taken it on the chin this winter. Kind of due for a few snow bombs that hit 15+ miles inland. 
 

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Soak it in.

looks amazing

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

April can be a sneaky month. I could see a big number in April and also a storm in May to pad the totals. May 2020 had a foot early in the month I think. It was right before I bought the place. Randolph does really well with marginal events that are rain all the way to Berlin but a blue bomb here.

The average here is kinda unhelpful since the winters seem to alternate between relatively lean 100-150" deals and monsters at 200-250." 

The 180" ish average number never seems to happen. It's either the lower or upper camp. Just something structurally different about the winters in each camp.

I expect this winter will be in the lower camp, obviously. One thing is for sure, based on the record here we are due for a monster winter.

I think it was Tamarack at one point who described NNE winters as this:  2/3 will be below average snowfall and 1/3 will be above average.  Average is derived through more “below normal” snow years than “above.”  Largely with the high annual averages you need wire-to-wire good winter pattern to get above… but when it happens, it goes bonkers.  The more likely probability in any given winter is below average in a weird way.

I honestly see that in a lot of the Mansfield season snow tallies since 2000.  Even 3 of 4 will be below the mean but the one above winter is way above.

Another thing is I do think NNE had a stronger than normal run in like the 2007-2017 period.  A lot of the newer or shorter periods of records (Cocorahs stuff) might bias high in that time frame but are starting to mellow out a bit.  Like I used to think Mansfield averaged a solid 300” starting at 2000.  Now I believe it’s more like 275” after the past 3 winters.  With a lot of 220-250” type stuff but then throw in a 375” as the above year and the “average” is higher than the median/mode values.

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I think it was Tamarack at one point who described NNE winters as this:  2/3 will be below average snowfall and 1/3 will be above average.  Average is derived through more “below normal” snow years than “above.”  Largely with the high annual averages you need wire-to-wire good winter pattern to get above… but when it happens, it goes bonkers.  The more likely probability in any given winter is below average in a weird way.

I honestly see that in a lot of the Mansfield season snow tallies since 2000.  Even 3 of 4 will be below the mean but the one above winter is way above.

Another thing is I do think NNE had a stronger than normal run in like the 2007-2017 period.  A lot of the newer or shorter periods of records (Cocorahs stuff) might bias high in that time frame but are starting to mellow out a bit.  Like I used to think Mansfield averaged a solid 300” starting at 2000.  Now I believe it’s more like 275” after the past 3 winters.  With a lot of 220-250” type stuff but then throw in a 375” as the above year and the “average” is higher than the median/mode values.

Yeah, I agree with all of this. 

Since we can't get our average in 2-3 storms like much of SNE, the structural setup of the winter is important. Need an active pattern. My biggest enemy here is being dry, not temps. 

Obviously, cutters that rain to Montreal are a different story.

[SJonesWX]

4 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

ACY beating GYX. 

why the hell is savannah, Ga even on that list? they can’t get accumulating snow more than what, once a decade or 2?

[A Moonlit Sky]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

lol Albany. I'm surprised we've managed even that much.

[CT Valley Snowman]

25 minutes ago, A Moonlit Sky said:

lol Albany. I'm surprised we've managed even that much.

BDL is bad as well. WNE and ENY FTL so far this winter, especially the valleys that don't cash in much on any upslope and lake streamers etc.  

[Johnno]

36 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

BDL is bad as well. WNE and ENY FTL so far this winter, especially the valleys that don't cash in much on any upslope and lake streamers etc.  

yup brutal here WoR

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Yeah, I agree with all of this. 

Since we can't get our average in 2-3 storms like much of SNE, the structural setup of the winter is important. Need an active pattern. My biggest enemy here is being dry, not temps. 

Obviously, cutters that rain to Montreal are a different story.

Absolutely on all of this.  We cannot have a great winter without above normal precipitation IMO.  We can’t get it done with a couple big storms either like places south.   Even a great month won’t do it.  A solid above normal NNE mountain winter is a sustained pattern that spans several months.

Many of the big years have a “vibe” but it’s less common to see than the times of struggle.  There are literally entire winters where 7-day totals seem to be 12-18” for months on end.  Sometimes it dips to 6” in 7-days but then there will be periods of 30” weeks.

I notice it on the mountain in terms of weekly snow totals.  This year has had a lot of days with 1-5” week long totals.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

BDL is bad as well. WNE and ENY FTL so far this winter, especially the valleys that don't cash in much on any upslope and lake streamers etc.  

The irony further north is that BTV is actually doing pretty well there relative to the NNE mtn locations.  BTV is one good storm away from near normal while the mountain areas would require quite the pattern to set up.

[DavisStraight]

Looks like some serious cold to start March

[Damage In Tolland]

Models lost the 2nd storm Sunday .

[Allsnow]

7 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

Looks like some serious cold to start March

Yup, but we are to deep into the trough with no blocking so it’s a dry look. 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yup, but we are to deep into the trough with no blocking so it’s a dry look. 

I don’t think so, not after the reload in early March. We’ll probably have a cutter near the 5th and then a reload. That’s an insane EPO ridge in AK.
 

Before then I’d still watch that second storm potential. 

[Allsnow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I don’t think so, not after the reload in early March. We’ll probably have a cutter near the 5th and then a reload. That’s an insane EPO ridge in AK.
 

Before then I’d still watch that second storm potential. 

Eps looked better Overnight for the second threat. I was more referring to the 2nd until that cutter for that dry look.  After the reload it will depend on where epo ridge sets up for costal sections. As you said, latitude will matter second week of March 

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks like BDL will hit 70 on Wednesday. Models are never warm enough this time of year on DSD days with no vegetation 

[SouthCoastMA]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Models lost the 2nd storm Sunday .

The 2nd best model was an improvement though. It's still on the table to watch

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Models lost the 2nd storm Sunday .

No

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Eps looked better Overnight for the second threat. I was more referring to the 2nd until that cutter for that dry look.  After the reload it will depend on where epo ridge sets up for costal sections. As you said, latitude will matter second week of March 

Yes but with a good pattern we can also snow down here.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

No

Cuffs?

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Yup, but we are to deep into the trough with no blocking so it’s a dry look. 

Oh great cold and dry in March. How wonderful. 

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Oh great cold and dry in March. How wonderful. 

I’m referring to the first full week of March after that it will get active with -pna. But that look would favor latitude 

[wx2fish]

Pretty big difference tomorrow between the nam/gfs and euro. Nam/gfs are pretty wedged most of the day, while the euro has much less CAD. I'd probably lean more wedged, but since most areas will spike by evening, it'll still go in the books as high in the 50s. Dendy might stay wedged into early Wednesday morning.