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February 2022 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah euro says we do another one on 2/27. 

Not to yank my own chain but I mentioned that in the other thread ...that's a bigger meridional signal when combining total metrics for extended risk assessing...   ( imho )

But we deal with this one first... well, technically, Tuesday is first. It has a windy squall threat again, with some ice for Brian N... but, both Tue and Fri are part of the same total synoptic evolution...

After which, that sets up way out there...  I think that real principle, but as that suggest we are not molding any forms just yet.

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Quite a pattern for the UK. I’m sitting in the hotel having dinner in London and it’s very windy outside and raining. Couple of days ago apparently they had a gust to 120 miles an hour in London itself and it blew a roof off. Glad I didn’t have to land and those kinds of wins. Looks like when I get home Tuesday night will be in snowstorm mode.

 

the wind is real here Kevin.

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Tomorrow we may just be drunk with nape juice...

wow -

That has MOS bust written all over it.   Which ...heh, we're not talking about a 6 on the seismic scale of busting when we say that, but at this time of year... high-ish sun angle with light wind over a brown pack-gone earth, and cold air actively en masse in the process of rolling away ...

I could see it 52 or 53 type balm with warm sun, not being shucked away by a chilly wind - faux warmth ftw. 

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8 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Quite a pattern for the UK. I’m sitting in the hotel having dinner in London and it’s very windy outside and raining. Couple of days ago apparently they had a gust to 120 miles an hour in London itself and it blew a roof off. Glad I didn’t have to land and those kinds of wins. Looks like when I get home Tuesday night will be in snowstorm mode.

 

the wind is real here Kevin.

What keeps bringing you back to the UK? Work/family/etc?

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1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, a 250m anomaly on a 5 day mean with total ensemble support is super anomalous stuff. would be lots of wintry chances through mid-month 

7579958A-DC57-4D35-8D7A-60DB6B4D741C.png

9B820FB7-D075-4B33-8428-E61FD7B17BF1.png

Yeah the only question is how much western troughing there is underneath the EPO blocking…we obviously don’t want too much or you get cutter city…but one good thing in this pattern is the +NAO is actually not that bad….it’s a monster vortex displaced a bit southwest so it actually might produce a lot of confluence in Quebec….we had that in December 2007 which helped it be such a prolific month in New England despite a lot of western troughing. 

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7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

What keeps bringing you back to the UK? Work/family/etc?

A good client.  It feels great to be traveling internationally again.  Pre-pandemic I was in London Hong Kong Tokyo singapore a lot, and also New York.  I don’t have quite the appetite I used to have for it but seven or eight trips a year would be very nice.  But nothing is as good as Philadelphia and Rehoboth Beach.  

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Quite a pattern for the UK. I’m sitting in the hotel having dinner in London and it’s very windy outside and raining. Couple of days ago apparently they had a gust to 120 miles an hour in London itself and it blew a roof off. Glad I didn’t have to land and those kinds of wins. Looks like when I get home Tuesday night will be in snowstorm mode.
 
the wind is real here Kevin.
I'm up north in Manchester and it has been storm after storm with even a little snow yesterday. Wind has been crazy at times. Stuck here after testing positive for covid. Can't fly home until I get a negative test. Feel bad about missing yesterday's squalls.

Sent from my SM-T220 using Tapatalk

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9 minutes ago, HimoorWx said:

I'm up north in Manchester and it has been storm after storm with even a little snow yesterday. Wind has been crazy at times. Stuck here after testing positive for covid. Can't fly home until I get a negative test. Feel bad about missing yesterday's squalls.

Sent from my SM-T220 using Tapatalk
 

My fear has been getting a positive covid  test.  5 days?

When I said to Kevin this is real wind, I meant not a 70 mph models winds but actual winds that are higher than that that really happen.

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My fear has been getting a positive covid  test.  5 days?
When I said to Kevin this is real wind, I meant not a 70 mph models winds but actual winds that are higher than that that really happen.
That was my fear as well, but I am fully vaccinated and boosted. Been a week now since I tested positive. Did a home test last night and it was negative but went for a real test this morning and it was positive. At least it is easy to change my flight. Was out about an hour ago and could barely stand in the wind. Lots of flooding south of Manchester with lots of trains canceled. Enjoy London. Will be there in May.

Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk

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Just now, PhineasC said:

March needs to crush in NNE.

I need 90" to hit average. LOL piece of cake for March?

Easiest way to get there for you is prob something like 10” to close out February next week and then a 50 spot in March and a 30 spot in April. 
 

50 inches in March there is prob not THAT anomalous. I’d bet it’s like 1 sigma above normal. 

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