Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Wow gfs May not be the best forum to post wow gfs in lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 hour ago, DavisStraight said: Maybe with the little band in front before the squall we get a good inch. 0.7” of warm advection snow here in the Champlain Valley ahead of the squall. We’re in the calm between right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: May not be the best forum to post wow gfs in lol We prob want this south right now given other guidance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Wow gfs We need it acatt so a 50/50 euro/gfs compromise will result in all frozen event for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: May not be the best forum to post wow gfs in lol 7 here on gfs but yea idk about that much suppresion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 26 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Wow gfs I know. Wednesday looks great. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: I know. Wednesday looks great. nice ice storm for phin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: nice ice storm for phin That never works out. A little southerly flow aloft and he’s having a luau. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: That never works out. A little southerly flow aloft and he’s having a luau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: I know. Wednesday looks great. Bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We prob want this south right now given other guidance. Ugh, I've heard that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Ukie and GGEM aren’t buying the GFS suppression for next Friday and neither am I. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie and GGEM aren’t buying the GFS suppression for next Friday and neither am I. Nope 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: That never works out. A little southerly flow aloft and he’s having a luau. That will verify here as mid-50s and sun with brisk tropical-feeling breezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: That will verify here as mid-50s and sun with brisk tropical-feeling breezes. Mele Kalikirandolph is the thing to say, on strong srly kind of day. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie and GGEM aren’t buying the GFS suppression for next Friday and neither am I. Ukie looks like a dumper. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie and GGEM aren’t buying the GFS suppression for next Friday and neither am I. yeah pattern doesn’t support the gfs. Swfe on roids Miller B hybrid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie and GGEM aren’t buying the GFS suppression for next Friday and neither am I. Let’s get 2/2/15 type. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Let’s get 2/2/15 type. Yeah the sleet tickles up to near MA border and then collapses back south with a bit of a secondary with another 6 hour burst. Man, almost everything went right during that 3 week stretch. Funny to say almost because we actually whiffed on a couple that just missed us east like 1/31/15…I think that one got downeast Maine hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the sleet tickles up to near MA border and then collapses back south with a bit of a secondary with another 6 hour burst. Man, almost everything went right during that 3 week stretch. Funny to say almost because we actually whiffed on a couple that just missed us east like 1/31/15…I think that one got downeast Maine hard. What changes would we need to see on the models to see a shift towards a Feb 2 2015 type solution rather than a boring ol 4-7 snow to mix to drizzle+dryslot SWFE? The OP runs don’t look great but it seems like the ensembles are more aggressive with the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 The GFS isn't even suppressed as much as it's just south by virtue of stretching everything along the x-coordinate W-E ... If the flow "geometry" is elongated, that pulls the latitude in both directions and ends up narrowing the system as well as taking it south of those guidance' that don't do that. Not sure if that is right - frankly ... I don't think that it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie and GGEM aren’t buying the GFS suppression for next Friday and neither am I. Being on the south coast I hope it's right. CMC has zilch or south of 84. At least the EURO had 1 to 3 south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Boooooooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 I know we joke about it, but this time NNE really does desperately need snow for the winter sports industry. LOL Spring skiing season is not looking good based on how it stands today. Sorry coastal SNE. Start thinking tomatoes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 This needs to shift south 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 39 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This needs to shift south Not sure it will, either. It's presence in the guidance et al, actually predates the mode changes we've collectively noted of the EPO and PNA. Anything in the flow is then going to begin getting forced. That leaves uncertainty as to how the ordeal at the end of the week will alter in time, both in structure and trajectory. Quick primer: - The PNA rising from -.5 to +1 SD over the course of the next 9 or so days statistically correlates to eastern N/A events. - The EPO falling negative over the same course ... statistically waits to impose a cooler look over eastern N/A. The reason for that is because as heights rise over the NE Pac/Alaskan sector, there is/can be an immediate downstream height fall, situated at first over western Canada and into the Rockies. If the EPO were not a part of week's total circulation morphology, it might be easier to visualize what comes of the end of the week... Something more straightforward Archembaultian sends a QPF bomb smearing along a more obvious conduit. But the EPO happening in tandem, ..that changes the map a little. We could send a cutter through DTX and not stress basic mass-field arguments. Typical gestation of EPO, the flow then stretches some and the L/W bumps east, and then we're waiting on the next system at the end of the month. The other aspect about this PNA is that it is biased W of typical lat/lon position. That's actually been a leitmotif this season... with PNA ridging tending to askew climo. That's causes spliting of the flow descending the Canadian Rockies for one, creating faux southern stream that then has to "rephase" over the Lakes and has been failing... The blizzard ALmost pulled it off..but only partially... Anyway, this PNA ridge is just far enough west, that adding the -EPO... that may want to tip the flow and correct that mess more W. I'm not sure... The flow is also still fast... The speed intrinsic to the flow is also a stress, too. It's causing like double nested anomaly formats. F weird year. It's like Russian nesting dolls of anomalies.. .where every layer is anomalous relative to the layer containing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Euro looks colder 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Boooooooo Love the little blue scoop for central/midcoast Maine, so LEW/Pit 2/MBY shows less than points S/W/N/E. Of course, it won't verify quite like that, but it makes me wonder what computer gymnastics can produce a snow hole for SR compared to all around it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Depends on what we mean by colder - the antecedence is essentially negligibly different. The storm itself is modestly weaker, ..yet enough that it is punching less warm advection. So there's a trade off there a bit in the form ptype regions being modestly S of previous fixes. But the total storm manifold is actually closer to unchanged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Man... the end of that Euro run was sooo close to fixing everyone's seasonal snow fall deficits 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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