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February 2022 Obs/Disco

Torch Tiger

By Torch Tiger,
in New England

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mahk_webstah
mahk_webstah

Come on now.  Anthony adds a lot to our forum.  He’s the best weenie from the other subforums.  He posts lots of maps and he’s a nice guy

Ginx snewx
Ginx snewx

The day started innocuous and drab. Hungover from a dorm party, I awoke my girlfriend (soon to be wife) and trudged to an 8 am class at Washburn Hall on the quad. The air was chilly, upper 20s with a

dendrite
dendrite

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
  On 2/17/2022 at 5:31 AM, George001 said:

image.thumb.png.66b65bc1a46563a004dd5c9faf51d69f.pngCould be interesting for the 2nd half of March and possibly even early April. If the pattern is good enough, it can and will snow even late March and early April. Winter is going out with a bang, not like last years sorry excuse for a winter.

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There is a warm intrusion taking place above that level, in the 5 hPa. 

I use the thermal metric for early detection/surmise on those - after all, they are referred to as sudden stratospheric warming event.  However, since the planetary wave decaying at high altitude/latitude, is the initial event in the total SSW sequence, it's fine to use that. 

It is not in the 10 hPa, yet, but is modeled to do so by D10 ( from 00z this last night...).  

That sinking motion is absolutely everything in the total SSW consideration. The problem is, it doesn't continue to sink beneath that altitude ( at least ) in the GFS.  

Primer: If it does not propagate downward like this,

image.png.3ce96a5cc0e59fd78f3d75b4cede4056.png

there is a high correlation between that failure and Joe B having used it to aggrandize his celebrity, by getting his constituency to go, "ooh, ah, wow..."   

Here were the time-lagged, corresponding AO numbers that took place 30 days after the initial onset of the January event you see there: 

2006  January -0.170;  February -0.156;  March;   -1.604;  April  0.138;  May 0.156   ... I haven't looked this up, down to the discrete weekly numbers, but by these month coarse means provide by CPC, there was a clear and coherent very large negative Arctic Oscillation mode in the early spring of 2006/March.  It may have, in fact, begun earlier toward the end of February that year. 

The Arctic Oscillation can also meander into a negative mode, without this above total planetary scaled event.   So, there are examples in the database where it is both negative(positive) with no apparent downward propagating thermal wave and associated wind reversal taking place.  But in every case where there is a very coherent example, the AO exhibited a marked decline in numerical phase between 20 and 30 days after the initial onset.

So we'll see if that changes in the next week's worth ... 5 and 10 hPa are both showing some intense thermal flashing beginning in 5 .. actually in just 3 days ..but by D6 ... 10 begin to exhibit the warm plume.  This "might" signal a propagation, however, looking ahead into 30 .. 50 and so forth, these sigma levels do not demonstrate ( modeled ) any intrusion taking place, through 360 hours. That means ( based on the GFS ), there is no current prognostic for that all important aspect to take place.    Not sure what the Euro and gang thinks.

 

 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
  On 2/17/2022 at 2:22 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

There is a warm intrusion taking place above that level, in the 5 hPa. 

I use the thermal metric for early detection/surmise on those - after all, they are referred to as sudden stratospheric warming event.  However, since the planetary wave decaying at high altitude/latitude, is the initial event in the total SSW sequence, it's fine to use that. 

It is not in the 10 hPa, yet, but is modeled to do so by D10 ( from 00z this last night...).  

That sinking motion is absolutely everything in the total SSW consideration. The problem is, it doesn't continue to sink beneath that altitude ( at least ) in the GFS.  

Primer: If it does not propagate downward like this,

image.png.3ce96a5cc0e59fd78f3d75b4cede4056.png

there is a high correlation between that failure and Joe B having used it to aggrandize his celebrity, by getting his constituency to go, "awe, wow..."   

Here were the time-lagged, corresponding AO numbers that took place 30 days after the initial onset of the January event you see there: 

2006  January -0.170;  February -0.156;  March;   -1.604;  April  0.138;  May 0.156   ... I haven't looked this up, down to the discrete weekly numbers, but by these month coarse means provide by CPC, there was a clear and coherent very large negative Arctic Oscillation mode in the early spring of 2006/March.  It may have, in fact, begun earlier toward the end of February that year. 

The Arctic Oscillation can also meander into a negative mode, without this above total planetary scaled event.   So, there are examples in the database where it is both negative(positive) with no apparent downward propagating thermal wave and associated wind reversal taking place.  But in every case where there is a very coherent example, the AO exhibited a marked decline in numerical phase between 20 and 30 days after the initial onset.

So we'll see if that changes in the next week's worth ... 5 and 10 hPa are both showing some intense thermal flashing beginning in 5 .. actually in just 3 days ..but by D6 ... 10 begin to exhibit the warm plume.  This "might" signal a propagation, however, looking ahead into 30 .. 50 and so forth, these sigma levels do not demonstrate ( modeled ) any intrusion taking place, through 360 hours. That means ( based on the GFS ), there is no current prognostic for that all important aspect to take place.    Not sure what the Euro and gang thinks.

 

 

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http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf.php?im=4

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 2/17/2022 at 2:22 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

There is a warm intrusion taking place above that level, in the 5 hPa. 

I use the thermal metric for early detection/surmise on those - after all, they are referred to as sudden stratospheric warming event.  However, since the planetary wave decaying at high altitude/latitude, is the initial event in the total SSW sequence, it's fine to use that. 

It is not in the 10 hPa, yet, but is modeled to do so by D10 ( from 00z this last night...).  

That sinking motion is absolutely everything in the total SSW consideration. The problem is, it doesn't continue to sink beneath that altitude ( at least ) in the GFS.  

Primer: If it does not propagate downward like this,

image.png.3ce96a5cc0e59fd78f3d75b4cede4056.png

there is a high correlation between that failure and Joe B having used it to aggrandize his celebrity, by getting his constituency to go, "awe, wow..."   

Here were the time-lagged, corresponding AO numbers that took place 30 days after the initial onset of the January event you see there: 

2006  January -0.170;  February -0.156;  March;   -1.604;  April  0.138;  May 0.156   ... I haven't looked this up, down to the discrete weekly numbers, but by these month coarse means provide by CPC, there was a clear and coherent very large negative Arctic Oscillation mode in the early spring of 2006/March.  It may have, in fact, begun earlier toward the end of February that year. 

The Arctic Oscillation can also meander into a negative mode, without this above total planetary scaled event.   So, there are examples in the database where it is both negative(positive) with no apparent downward propagating thermal wave and associated wind reversal taking place.  But in every case where there is a very coherent example, the AO exhibited a marked decline in numerical phase between 20 and 30 days after the initial onset.

So we'll see if that changes in the next week's worth ... 5 and 10 hPa are both showing some intense thermal flashing beginning in 5 .. actually in just 3 days ..but by D6 ... 10 begin to exhibit the warm plume.  This "might" signal a propagation, however, looking ahead into 30 .. 50 and so forth, these sigma levels do not demonstrate ( modeled ) any intrusion taking place, through 360 hours. That means ( based on the GFS ), there is no current prognostic for that all important aspect to take place.    Not sure what the Euro and gang thinks.

 

 

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So many people overlook that propagation aspect, which really is the smoking gun in the whole SSW ordeal....I mean, who cares if it gets toasty up at 60K if it doesn't make it down to where the weather synoptically materializes in the troposphere.

As far as this season goes, I am resigned to failure on that aspect of my work this past fall.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
  On 2/17/2022 at 12:43 PM, CoastalWx said:

Man long range does look interesting.

I probably should throw it out there, that many of these systems could be messy too. The op runs are hinting at this. I know you don’t forecast based on op runs, but I think it’s a good proxy to what might happen. 

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As others have said, I would definitely roll the dice in that look more than a few times, and take my chances. That’s a nice look, with lots of cold around.  Let’s dance. 

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