WinterWolf Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 58 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Hideously ugly GFS run. Endless warm rain. Pack annihilator. Might be close the shades until March time. Hopefully we can get a legendary March/April. It’ll change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 Terrific GFS run. Except the end when it gets cold, but it'll change 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: It’ll change. I’m sure, but I am not seeing many good signs for second half of Feb. Can literally change overnight tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Hideously ugly GFS run. Endless warm rain. Pack annihilator. Might be close the shades until March time. Hopefully we can get a legendary March/April. F that. If it torches and rains, I'm done. No sense starting over in March. Of course mother nature will do what she wants Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 13, 2022 Author Share Posted February 13, 2022 Good to see models converging on two solid cutters, one of course next Thursday and perhaps an even better one 2/23 ish. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 We need this to weaken much faster for a big March. We aren’t going to get a SSW or anything before it’s too late, but if we can get it to weaken to like average and then get some pacific help we have a shot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said: Good to see models converging on two solid cutters, one of course next Thursday and perhaps an even better one 2/23 ish. Please stop, President's Week coming up and nobody wants warm cutters and rain. Big money making Week for Winter weather enthusiasts. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 13, 2022 Author Share Posted February 13, 2022 5 hours ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Please stop, President's Week coming up and nobody wants warm cutters and rain. Big money making Week for Winter weather enthusiasts. plenty of snow up there, no? i've been reading endless posts emphasizing how much there is compared to SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 6 hours ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Please stop, President's Week coming up and nobody wants warm cutters and rain. Big money making Week for Winter weather enthusiasts. We have definitely had a few grinch storms over the years heading into that week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Two warm cutters could wipe out all natural trail skiing in VT and NH, IMO. The pack is not that robust at the ski places. I have basically the same amount of snow on the season as Wildcat/BW/Cannon (if not a little more) and the pack here would be really decimated if we get two 47 degree atmospheric river jobs back to back. The rest of Feb looks pretty hideous to me. I am expecting to be down to just a little snow if the current progs pan out. Then we see if we can rebuild in March to save the spring skiing season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 9 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: Good to see models converging on two solid cutters, one of course next Thursday and perhaps an even better one 2/23 ish. The cutters are likely legit. I'm assuming your motivation surrounds warmth? For those in the spring/warm enthusiasm side: the numerical PNA teleconnector at CPC has shallowed some regarding the previous negative index mode. Still has the index slumping off.. but, keeps the -PNA rather weakly so - centered on D7. In fact, it's really only down -.5 SD, which is not a very convincing look. Prior it was -1, with a more coherence. This shallowing is then followed by the index rises back positive going through week 2. I realize the MJO this ..and La Nina that... and climate change this ...and all that, but these are more like garnishing indicators and will take a back seat if the seasonal persistence ( by virtue of already verifying...) decides to return. The recent 4 weeks of the hemispheric circulation eddy was rather decoupled from the La Nina base-line expectation, as noted by CPC's recent MJO weekly publications - although last week they surmised it may "RE" couple, based on the RMM 3-6 migration being in constructive interference with La Nina..etc. This latter may still happen...and that may start tipping the extended PNA back downward in time - we'll see... But, the point of this verbal journey is to demo that there might be some competing forces in play that make a warm out look less confident. In the dailies, there's deeply gelid air mass plumes still loading into the Canadian shield in all guidance... that's typically a "silent -EPO" tendency. That index actually has a longer term negative correlation coef. wrt to the PNA so having it be out of phase signals the conflict. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The cutters are likely legit. I'm assuming your motivation surrounds warmth? For those in the spring/warm enthusiasm side: the numerical PNA teleconnector at CPC has shallowed some regarding the previous negative index mode. Still has the index slumping off.. but, keeps the -PNA rather weakly so - centered on D7. In fact, it's really only down -.5 SD, which is not a very convincing look. Prior it was -1, with a more coherence. This shallowing is then followed by the index rises back positive going through week 2. I realize the MJO this ..and La Nina that... and climate change this ...and all that, but these are more like garnishing indicators and will take a back seat if the seasonal persistence ( by virtue of already verifying...) decides to return. The recent 4 weeks of the hemispheric circulation eddy was rather decoupled from the La Nina base-line expectation, as noted by CPC's recent MJO weekly publications - although last week they surmised it may "RE" couple, based on the RMM 3-6 migration being in constructive interference with La Nina..etc. This latter may still happen...and that may start tipping the extended PNA back downward in time - we'll see... But, the point of this verbal journey is to demo that there might be some competing forces in play that make a warm out look less confident. In the dailies, there's deeply gelid air mass plumes still loading into the Canadian shield in all guidance... that's typically a "silent -EPO" tendency. That index actually has a longer term negative correlation coef. wrt to the PNA so having it be out of phase signals the conflict. What you’re describing could be one of those overrunning patterns where if we are north of the boundary we stay cold and get snow while much of the rest of the country warms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Borrowed from MA forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 8 hours ago, George001 said: We need this to weaken much faster for a big March. We aren’t going to get a SSW or anything before it’s too late, but if we can get it to weaken to like average and then get some pacific help we have a shot. Probably too late. We can still get a dank and chilly April though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Borrowed from MA forum EPS and GEFS showed some ridge over the north pole too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 35 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Borrowed from MA forum I could be wrong, but I feel like the CFS had done pretty well this winter. We all know the weeklies have blown for the most part. But maybe the CFS has been bashed too much? As long as there is cold air left in Canada, snowy "surprises" like today can still happen in the shorter term 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS and GEFS showed some ridge over the north pole too. MJO looks to be going into the COD on the latest models end of Feb. Hopefully that’s right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 It’ll be interesting to see how much of this glacier will remain after the Thu cutter. Those are some sultry dews for a 12hr stretch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 I can walk all over the pack without breaking through. ConcreteSent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 CMC flattened out the Friday system quite a bit. Hopefully the trend continues. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 39 minutes ago, dendrite said: It’ll be interesting to see how much of this glacier will remain after the Thu cutter. Those are some sultry dews for a 12hr stretch. I’m supposed to be snowmobiling in the whites next weekend. How concerned should I be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Yeah it's kinda boring looking ahead. Maybe the week's end system is interesting for wind and ribbon squall if that's a kick. Originally, I thought that had a chance to flatten like the sleet event last week - it too was a flat wave cutter when it was D5+ ..etc. But still waiting for any trend to even manifest is a paint peeling. Otherwise, watching indices modulate off the warm throttle, but not conclusively so... such that varied outcomes not sufficient to induce much, oy ... None of that is exactly lighting the stage up with entertainment really. It's like we're sitting in the auditorium with half illumination watching set dec move props during sound and production checks. More like an opportunity to check out. Maybe engage in other hobbies ... check back in once in awhile in the off chance that anything might emerge. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 CMC looks better for Friday. GFS remains hideous through the end of the month. Ugly runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 15 minutes ago, PhineasC said: CMC looks better for Friday. GFS remains hideous through the end of the month. Ugly runs. Just gotta get this to trend north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 3 hours ago, PhineasC said: Two warm cutters could wipe out all natural trail skiing in VT and NH, IMO. The pack is not that robust at the ski places. I have basically the same amount of snow on the season as Wildcat/BW/Cannon (if not a little more) and the pack here would be really decimated if we get two 47 degree atmospheric river jobs back to back. The rest of Feb looks pretty hideous to me. I am expecting to be down to just a little snow if the current progs pan out. Then we see if we can rebuild in March to save the spring skiing season. Snowpack in New England is usually only two warm cutters away from a real bad time unless it’s a truly bomber snow year. Life in the East. It won’t be pretty but we’ll make the best of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 2 hours ago, dendrite said: It’ll be interesting to see how much of this glacier will remain after the Thu cutter. Those are some sultry dews for a 12hr stretch. Melt the annoying stuff and keep the deep snow in the woods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 I’m supposed to be snowmobiling in the whites next weekend. How concerned should I be? Depends on how bad the cutter on Thurs is. Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 2 hours ago, dendrite said: It’ll be interesting to see how much of this glacier will remain after the Thu cutter. Those are some sultry dews for a 12hr stretch. I could see atleast one angry post when MHT hits 55F 6+ hours before Tilton. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 To add insult to Phin/PF ... the Euro with a run at 70, D10 ... not that it'll survive 10 days of fractals in the models and actually happen, but it's the gesture that counts... LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: To add insult to Phin/PF ... the Euro with a run at 70, D10 ... not that it'll survive 10 days of fractals in the models and actually happen, but it's the gesture that counts... LOL 70F in February would be funny to be honest. If it's not going to snow, might as well go for broke. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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