Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 On 2/12/2022 at 3:08 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Look at this furnace end of week Expand Just be aware if not advised ... the synopsis in how/why that warm intrusion occurs maps like a potential wind annoyance. That may not be as pleasant and "napey" as those temperatures look. It's a flat open wave ripping NW as a eastern Lakes cutter, and it will be dragging an unabated warm sector along with it, but ... there is lots of QPF contamination in the various guidance... Could be white noise leaner wind gusts, with misty showers and lots of lower nimbus cloud types. I've actually been wondering if Ohio/ W PA down to KT may have another severe outbreak ( separate curiosity - ) ... We could end with a ribbon-echo squall along the CF when that whole mess rapidly smears out into Maritime shortly after this chart above. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Pack dropped from 30” to 23” overnight. Melting really accelerated when the dews came up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 On 2/12/2022 at 3:21 PM, PhineasC said: Pack dropped from 30” to 23” overnight. Melting really accelerated when the dews came up. Expand Will be zero by Presidents’ Day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 On 2/12/2022 at 3:22 PM, qg_omega said: Will be zero by Presidents’ Day Expand Stop trolling this forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 On 2/12/2022 at 3:24 PM, MJO812 said: Stop trolling this forum Expand There's no sugar coating the cutter to Canada. There's nothing stopping it from continuing to trend more amped/warmer. Packs could be decimated even in NNE but given it's only mid Feb they should have more snow events through March to replenish it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 On 2/12/2022 at 3:29 PM, SnoSki14 said: There's no sugar coating the cutter to Canada. There's nothing stopping it from continuing to trend more amped/warmer. Packs could be decimated even in NNE but given it's only mid Feb they should have more snow events through March to replenish it. Expand Yep agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 On 2/12/2022 at 3:24 PM, MJO812 said: Stop trolling this forum Expand Hopefully that will also be the number of posts he is allowed per day here. Already down to 5 and he still wastes every single one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 On 2/11/2022 at 11:33 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Really? Business is booming here. Our association has $500 left in the plow budget for the year. Even if we get very little snow here on out we are likely to go over Expand 3 snow/sleet events for the entire winter.....for those in the plowing business it has been a terrible winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 On 2/11/2022 at 11:09 PM, Allsnow said: Yup. It’s next to impossible down here to do it on your own. It’s going to get to the point where big management companies will hold the accounts an sub the work out. Just think about being in western Ct or Mass with a few pathetic storms which turn little profit and a law suit… Expand People vastly underestimate the number of slip and fall lawsuits that are being filed. Everyone is looking to cash in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 On 2/12/2022 at 12:29 PM, Ginx snewx said: He has no single digits on that map Expand You mock his not showing any single digits, but then call that a "map." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 On 2/12/2022 at 3:24 PM, MJO812 said: Stop trolling this forum Expand He might be right ... Frankly, if the Euro is correct with that amount of warm sector push - which I suspect it may be too aggressive but just suppose for a moment ... - no snow pack will survive 64/54 combination of T and DP transported along in sustain 20 mph, gusting to 40 mph winds. In such a scenario, even deep into the cryospheric domains...that would be 48/46 blow torching. We could unseat the Greenland icecap in that No, but even denser "melt resistant" snow packs would deteriorate at a surprisingly fast rate. As an aside - it may be clever, or 'covert' trolling, to 'time' abject observations, when said observation is rooted in plausibility (hence the insult to intelligence). However, unfortunately for the people that are too sensitive, their sensitivity is a very fortunate boon for people that engage in that sort of subversive tactic for their own muse in Schadenfreude. The best thing is to ignore it? That takes maturity and personal integrity - ... not you per se, but it's probably a crop failure to attempt to sow such seeds of advise in the soils of the World Wide Web's stunning achievement in restraint. ... just sayn' Anyway, I think it 'possible' the Euro is too far NW, overall, with it's open wave cyclone track and the the frontal position. Not enough to matter much down here in SNE ...but, up there in mid/N Maine, I could see that boundary correct S over the next 3 days of runs...inch by inch. I'm just not convinced that the Euro doesn't still have a meridian bias beyond D4's ... 50/50 on that. So it's just a well likely that it actually does pin a warm front/stationary front N of Phin to truly and deeply f his snow pack. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 On 2/12/2022 at 3:33 PM, PhineasC said: Hopefully that will also be the number of posts he is allowed per day here. Already down to 5 and he still wastes every single one. Expand Last thing I want is this pattern going into Presidents’ Day week but It is what it is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Hopefully by the end of Feb the cold/snowy pattern returns and we have a good March in NNE. Last March was pretty meh (bone dry for weeks then suddenly very warm and a meltdown), and the usual snow in April thing around here is more of a curiosity and stat-padder than anything. My spot usually gets a blue bomb that drops a sloppy foot in April and then melts the next day. March will need to really rock for this winter to end up above the bottom of the pile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 On 2/12/2022 at 3:45 PM, Typhoon Tip said: He might be right ... Frankly, if the Euro is correct with that amount of warm sector push - which I suspect it may be too aggressive but just suppose for a moment ... - no snow pack will survive 64/54 combination of T and DP transported along in sustain 20 mph, gusting to 40 mph winds. In such a scenario, even deep into the cryospheric domains...that would be 48/46 blow torching. We could unseat the Greenland icecap in that No, but even denser "melt resistant" snow packs would deteriorate at a surprisingly fast rate. As an aside - it may be clever, or 'covert' trolling, to 'time' abject observations, when said observation is rooted in plausibility (hence the insult to intelligence). However, unfortunately for the people that are too sensitive, their sensitivity is a very fortunate boon for people that engage in that sort of subversive tactic for their own muse in Schadenfreude. The best thing is to ignore it? That takes maturity and personal integrity - ... not you per se, but it's probably a crop failure to attempt to sow such seeds of advise in the soils of the World Wide Web's stunning achievement in restraint. ... just sayn' Anyway, I think it 'possible' the Euro is too far NW, overall, with it's open wave cyclone track and the the frontal position. Not enough to matter much down here in SNE ...but, up there in mid/N Maine, I could see that boundary correct S over the next 3 days of runs...inch by inch. I'm just not convinced that the Euro doesn't still have a meridian bias beyond D4's ... 50/50 on that. So it's just a well likely that it actually does pin a warm front/stationary front N of Phin to truly and deeply f his snow pack. Expand Sounds like a Grinch storm. Every single one of these cutters has dampened out before go time though. The last one turned into 16" here. This one looks potent, but still time for it to dry up and turn into a breezy FROPA or go south of us/overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 On 2/12/2022 at 3:46 PM, qg_omega said: Last thing I want is this pattern going into Presidents’ Day week but It is what it is Expand what pattern do you want? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heat Miser Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 On 2/12/2022 at 2:19 PM, DavisStraight said: Webster Lake which is a pretty big lake has 10 inches of ice as of yesterday, last year it never totally froze. Expand You mean Lake Chargoggagoggmanchauggagoggchaubunagungamaugg? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 On 2/12/2022 at 3:45 PM, Typhoon Tip said: He might be right ... Frankly, if the Euro is correct with that amount of warm sector push - which I suspect it may be too aggressive but just suppose for a moment ... - no snow pack will survive 64/54 combination of T and DP transported along in sustain 20 mph, gusting to 40 mph winds. In such a scenario, even deep into the cryospheric domains...that would be 48/46 blow torching. We could unseat the Greenland icecap in that No, but even denser "melt resistant" snow packs would deteriorate at a surprisingly fast rate. As an aside - it may be clever, or 'covert' trolling, to 'time' abject observations, when said observation is rooted in plausibility (hence the insult to intelligence). However, unfortunately for the people that are too sensitive, their sensitivity is a very fortunate boon for people that engage in that sort of subversive tactic for their own muse in Schadenfreude. The best thing is to ignore it? That takes maturity and personal integrity - ... not you per se, but it's probably a crop failure to attempt to sow such seeds of advise in the soils of the World Wide Web's stunning achievement in restraint. ... just sayn' Anyway, I think it 'possible' the Euro is too far NW, overall, with it's open wave cyclone track and the the frontal position. Not enough to matter much down here in SNE ...but, up there in mid/N Maine, I could see that boundary correct S over the next 3 days of runs...inch by inch. I'm just not convinced that the Euro doesn't still have a meridian bias beyond D4's ... 50/50 on that. So it's just a well likely that it actually does pin a warm front/stationary front N of Phin to truly and deeply f his snow pack. Expand Walking this morning watching a few small patches of brown start to show in the sunny parts of the fields, watching the ruts and river running down the hardpack driveway, and smelling the piling of composting chicken shit a couple thousand feet across one field, I thought, well this is going to freeze into a glacier again for a few days but then with the rain and warmth at week's end we might have a flooding problem and then mud. I did notice that as that storm gets going late week there is an arm of high pressure reaching over to stroke Ottawa, but didn't look like anything stout enough to push the track further south. I guess the low would have to slow down by 12-24 to allow some high pressure to establish to build a cold feed. That seems way way unlikely with no confluence to our north to help. Flooding it will be and then we contemplate an early spring or a pack rebuild. Seems like the truth might lie in between as the winter wimpers away, with a few inches here and there between warmth and melting, enough to get us here past 50" and annoy the crap out of us who want to start planting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 On 2/12/2022 at 3:51 PM, mahk_webstah said: what pattern do you want? Expand Given I ski almost every weekend, one of those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 You actually don't seem to be trolling today. Nice change. Ski in NY or up higher in NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 40/34. Overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 On 2/12/2022 at 3:49 PM, PhineasC said: Sounds like a Grinch storm. Every single one of these cutters has dampened out before go time though. The last one turned into 16" here. This one looks potent, but still time for it to dry up and turn into a breezy FROPA or go south of us/overhead. Expand Yeah ...that 'flattening'/attenuation was observed prior to that 16" er ...I think that happened 4 days aft of the blizzard? Anyway, I mentioned a couple days ago that might happen again, because there were some remarkable similarities to both circumstances, from the distant vantage of - at the time .. - 180 hours out, just as an in situ observation of the operational art show. Since then? This time ...the correction has been slower if at all. In fact, it did correct in the GFS by 100 miles over two runs ..about 2 days ago - that and the previous storm example prompting to me wonder.. .But as usual, the moment I clicked "Submit Reply," it become as though that button may as well read, "Shit On What You Just Typed" - that trend halted and the track/front have been locked ever since. The problem/difference really .. .between that other event and this one, is that prior to that one the PNA was in the process of correcting positive. Every night the EOFs would crunch the telecon and the D8 mean GEF-based curve was ending up more positive than the previously nightly computations. This time, the PNA is going the other way. That difference in the large scale super synoptic manifold sends a correction vector for warmer, not colder, unfortunately for snow packs critically being injured if not on life support already.. So we eat another big chunk today... then we lock whatever's left into diamond-crete through mid week. And in that time, we'll see/test these telecon signals. It might be interesting if one is dorked out and nerd horny enough. ugh - too much even for me to care frankly. I would just say from orbit ...? it looks like the operational renditions, all of them... are ablating the warm signals at least excuse imagined. They keep illustrating depictions in the longer range that fail to extend the eastern mid latitude warm look, limiting the layouts to less than signals are accommodating. It's sort of 'hiding' how warm that could be. I just get the feeling the rest of the month is cooked in New England down to the MA/.. The Lakes cutter might warn snow/ice a stripe from IA-southern MI/lower Ontario, but even there suffers as we see the operational runs start acknowledging the memo. La Nina spring/-PNA ...with an utterly abandoned (AO/NAO) mode(s), ...in a CC-argument that has contributed already to numerous bizarro 70s excursions in recent Febs and Mars dating back a decade or more... No part of that arithmetic should trigger any illusions on where the correction vectors are presently pointed. heh...we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 On 2/12/2022 at 3:37 PM, Great Snow 1717 said: 3 snow/sleet events for the entire winter.....for those in the plowing business it has been a terrible winter. Expand Most, not all, of the snow removal / maintenance folks I deal with decided to go with a yearly fee this winter and are perfectly happy. I have discussions with my clients in Aug/Sept and discuss whether to play the odds of a yearly fee or a per storm contract. This year most decided to roll the dice with a yearly fee option, and are happy, so far with the winter tenor. As for the litigation side of things, I deal with many dozens of those case every year. Juries are quite open to siding with the snow removal guys, if they can show a well-documented work procedure. I always recommend an after clean-up brief video, or at least pictures with a logbook of times of cleaning and treatment applications. Most juries understand the nature of Northeast winters and fully understand it is impossible to clean surfaces to perfection; especially when dealing with parking lots / driveways and walkways that were being used during an event. The key is to document, take pics and/or video each storm. It might sound tedious, but it can make all the difference when it comes to lawsuits. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 On 2/12/2022 at 4:03 PM, mahk_webstah said: You actually don't seem to be trolling today. Nice change. Ski in NY or up higher in NE? Expand Adks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 On 2/12/2022 at 4:44 PM, qg_omega said: Adks Expand Beautiful up there and lots of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 On 2/12/2022 at 3:40 PM, TugHillMatt said: You mock his not showing any single digits, but then call that a "map." Expand Graphic, feel better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 58.4, sunny, beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 On 2/12/2022 at 5:08 PM, Ginx snewx said: Graphic, feel better? Expand Just teasing. I did think similarly to you in regards to there being no single digits. I think mostly us weenies are the only ones who would pay attention to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 On 2/12/2022 at 4:29 PM, FXWX said: Most, not all, of the snow removal / maintenance folks I deal with decided to go with a yearly fee this winter and are perfectly happy. I have discussions with my clients in Aug/Sept and discuss whether to play the odds of a yearly fee or a per storm contract. This year most decided to roll the dice with a yearly fee option, and are happy, so far with the winter tenor. As for the litigation side of things, I deal with many dozens of those case every year. Juries are quite open to siding with the snow removal guys, if they can show a well-documented work procedure. I always recommend an after clean-up brief video, or at least pictures with a logbook of times of cleaning and treatment applications. Most juries understand the nature of Northeast winters and fully understand it is impossible to clean surfaces to perfection; especially when dealing with parking lots / driveways and walkways that were being used during an event. The key is to document, take pics and/or video each storm. It might sound tedious, but it can make all the difference when it comes to lawsuits. Expand Very well written, we plow a few sites "per. storm", but we have a few that pay from Nov. 1-Apr. 1 installments, seems we have salted more then we have plowed, documentation IS important, great idea on videos...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 On 2/12/2022 at 5:14 PM, Torch Tiger said: 58.4, sunny, beautiful Expand My driveway is almost totally ice free now. Still, managed to slip on a tiny patch when I went to get the mail. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 62… what a torch… amazing to be outside today. Really lifts the spirits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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