WinterWolf Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Pv going to couple as all the cold retreats to the pole. With the mjo moving into the warm phases I would expect a warm finish to February Perhaps too much weighting of the MJO? Scooter says the MJO isn’t the end all be all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Perhaps too much weighting of the MJO? Scooter says the MJO isn’t the end all be all. Ehhh…I’m not sure what his thoughts are so I won’t comment on that. But imo, the mjo will be in the driver seat with the strong pv, +epo, +nao and mjo warm phases. I completely understand in some years it won’t be dictating our pattern. With that said, so far this year it has been in the driver seat. The cold January was a direct result of the mjo going 7/8 then died in IO which had lingering cold phases. Yes, we/sne can sneak a well timed event in. But overall the second half of February favors warm to perhaps way above normal imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Perhaps too much weighting of the MJO? Scooter says the MJO isn’t the end all be all. A milder end to Feb is in the cards I think. But some signs March may have some bouts of winter and not because of just climo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: I'm issuing a challenge to you....the challenge is for you to stay off of twitter from 11/1/2022 to 3/31/2023... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: A milder end to Feb is in the cards I think. But some signs March may have some bouts of winter and not because of just climo. Saar, What are those signs that aren’t just early(1st half) March climo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Saar, What are those signs that aren’t just early(1st half) March climo? There’s some signs tropical forcing may move to the dateline. That would help the PNA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: There’s some signs tropical forcing may move to the dateline. That would help the PNA. I feel like the uptick in solar activity may have given the PV a boost, which is why we aren't getting a blockier second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 I was thinking the next 10 days might be our delayed Jan thaw, but instead I think it is a full melt out, maybe followed by irritating March snows that stop me from planting in the garden. Once the pack melts I'm all for spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I was thinking the next 10 days might be our delayed Jan thaw, but instead I think it is a full melt out, maybe followed by irritating March snows that stop me from planting in the garden. Once the pack melts I'm all for spring. Well we got 3 huge cutters on the gfs spaced out every 5 days. This the operational of course. Ensemables support that pattern. Lights out pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 11, 2022 Author Share Posted February 11, 2022 great day, 50.6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said: great day, 50.6 So nice to see the ice melting off of my driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 I just happened to scroll through clown range on the GFS today....and this event caught my eye not because it's remotely going to happen, but because it's the type of event I would have expected more of this season but we just haven't seen them. We usually have at least 1 or 2 during a La Nina. Even cruddy La Ninas usually feature one. Can't remember the last time we had a solid front end thump on a nice SWFE...maybe 2/12/19. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I just happened to scroll through clown range on the GFS today....and this event caught my eye not because it's remotely going to happen, but because it's the type of event I would have expected more of this season but we just haven't seen them. We usually have at least 1 or 2 during a La Nina. Even cruddy La Ninas usually feature one. Can't remember the last time we had a solid front end thump on a nice SWFE...maybe 2/12/19. Especially during December....I feel like this is what all of that compression between the RNA and NAO robbed us of. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 37 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I was thinking the next 10 days might be our delayed Jan thaw, but instead I think it is a full melt out, maybe followed by irritating March snows that stop me from planting in the garden. Once the pack melts I'm all for spring. Thank you! I’m holding to lose the pack tomorrow. Still icy areas mid day today on walking areas and paths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Everything is over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Everything is over Install tomorrow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Everything is over Beer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Especially during December....I feel like this is what all of that compression between the RNA and NAO robbed us of. Yeah for sure...if that RNA was just a little less extreme...we likely would have had multiple events like that (we went over how similar that pattern was to Dec 1970...just the RNA was more extreme)....you saw how many went through the meatgrinder as they were approaching us. Not only does a lesser RNA relax some of that meatgrinder, it also allows the cold to seep a little further south....potent combo...highs pressing down a little more against stronger shortwaves that don't lose their integrity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah for sure...if that RNA was just a little less extreme...we likely would have had multiple events like that....you saw how many went through the meatgrinder as they were approaching us. Not only does a lesser RNA relax some of that meatgrinder, it also allows the cold to seep a little further south....potent combo...highs pressing down a little more against stronger shortwaves that don't lose their integrity. Those are the type of events that I expected to clean up on throughout mid to late December....too bad. This season had potential...it wasn't an abomination, but just didn't work out. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Everything is over I’d be fine with that, but that isn’t gonna happen. She’s gonna torture us right through March. I’m not saying we score anything significant(although that’s always a distinct possibility in SNE through mid March), but it’s not gonna be a big huge beautiful warm up that lasts like 2012, No, this season is sadistic/evil, she’s got more nastiness in her…you just watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 46.6F. Should get close to 50F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Everything is over throw some grass seed down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Everything is over Life? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 58 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Life? Illicit drugs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 11, 2022 Author Share Posted February 11, 2022 everything is just beginning 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: So nice to see the ice melting off of my driveway. Nice day buy the soggy ground on the first couple days of a thaw is maddening. Kids and dogs tracking mud inside while I chase them with wet wipes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I’d be fine with that, but that isn’t gonna happen. She’s gonna torture us right through March. I’m not saying we score anything significant(although that’s always a distinct possibility in SNE through mid March), but it’s not gonna be a big huge beautiful warm up that lasts like 2012, No, this season is sadistic/evil, she’s got more nastiness in her…you just watch. I still feel like we will end up with a big interior event somehow....even in a shit pattern....like a spring bowling ball, or something. I just find it hard to believe that this season will end this paltry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Mud turns hard as coal Saturday night. Pretty intense low level temp crash signaled here. Not sure it's a real 'thaw' in the spirit of seasonal escape. ... not even long enough to transience. I bet there's a frozen layer that survives. The signals for warm end to Feb are certainly real, but that could materialize either very much so...or more tepid. The latter version probably doesn't break warm enough to 'keep it thawed out' - it's not slam dunk to ever call a winter over on Feb 11 LOL ... some tantrums I think. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Illicit drugs Ease up on them… we can tell, and we’re concerned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now