February 2022 Obs/Disco

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s going to take a Feb17 like move where it was whiffing until inside 84hr when it started to come together. 

Oh For sure.
 

But this is the Feb thread, so like I said, I hope he keeps posting what it shows.  I’m certainly not banking on anything, but it’s 2/8, and she doesn’t look like she’s gonna release us to spring all too early, so might as well see if anything happens. 

[Cold Miser]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

We are less than a month from meteorological spring. Snow in March isnt the same as snow in January...whatever falls in March has an expiration date of under a week.

Except for March 93.  I remember driving from R.I. to DC a few weeks later, and snow was still down there. 

[Torch Tiger]

22 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

...Such an awesome, past 5 / 6 days.  Book ends of rain, sandwiching wasted winter cold...and now, nothing to really look forward to. 

Get me the F*ck out.  

Plenty of nice mild days this week to prep for warm season.  Really looking forward to a long, hot summer

[Cold Miser]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I guess some are fatigued. I can understand. It’s been a lousy run for some of us.
 

 But there’s no getting out on 2/8 when you live in Southern New England.  So it’s gonna be a long few months.   Cuz after the next 6 weeks passes, and the snow chances are gone at the end of March, we have another 6 weeks of damp raw misery mist for the most part.  
 

So while it’s still very much winter, and the height of it at that, doesn’t hurt to check in once in a while, and see if anything interesting is brewing.  I wouldn’t be wasting much time in here, but a check doesn’t hurt. 

Absolutely unrefined, unadulterated, misery. 

A good winter at least helps dull the pain that comes with April, but I despise April very much.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You average more than him....he's going on just the last 30 years. Best I can see is that Reading is about 65-66" in the last 30 years but that is trying to guesstimate with some missing data in key years like 1995-1996 and 2002-2003.

 

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1995-1996 is 127.5"

2002-2003 is 86.8"

So I will be conservative and say 65"...here are my last 4 seasons:

2018-2019: 47.5" (73.1% of normal)

2019-2020: 44" (67.7% of normal)

2020-2021: 51" (78.5% of normal)

2021-2022 (to date): 24.5" (37.7% or normal)

I would bet my life that Scooter, and especially Steve and most of all Will have done much better relative to average over this span.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

We are less than a month from meteorological spring. Snow in March isnt the same as snow in January...whatever falls in March has an expiration date of under a week.

Who gives a f*ck, snow is snow. I don’t care if it lasts a day or ten. Bring it.
 

And I go by Astronomical Winter, so there’s 6 weeks left to that. Some of the biggest storms come in March.  And it’s Feb 8th today, so why wouldn’t we be talking about winter. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Cold Miser said:

Except for March 93.  I remember driving from R.I. to DC a few weeks later, and snow was still down there. 

Storm of the century will do that when the entire 95 corridor was cased in with a bulletproof pack.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

He biting.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Oh For sure.
 

But this is the Feb thread, so like I said, I hope he keeps posting what it shows.  I’m certainly not banking on anything, but it’s 2/8, and she doesn’t look like she’s gonna release us to spring all too early, so might as well see if anything happens. 

Honestly, if this were a month ago, then I'd be more  hopeful for VD Day, but I am admittedly biased because this season has shown its shitty, stink fingered hand. I just don't see it....if it trends favorably today, then I'll blog about it, but ordinarily I already would have.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He biting.

 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Honestly, of this were a month ago, then I'd be more  hopeful for VD  Day, but I am admittedly biased because this has shown its shitty, stink fingered hand. I just don't see it....if it trends favorably today, then I'll blog about it, but ordinarily I already would have.

Believe me, I hear and feel the frustration as well.  But unfortunately it’s not March 21st yet, and we have 2 full weeks before it’s even February 21st, so I guess my point was, ya check in a couple times a day, and see the trends.  I agree, not feeling hopeful, but it’s not dead at all, and there will be more shots at storms. 
 

But ya, it’s been a stinker here so far. 

[George001]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

She’s not gonna work out for most. Best case is a glancing rub for sema. 

Lots of improvements in the upper levels on the models. Ensembles are starting to show more hits at the surface as well though it still needs a little work. The pattern looks really good, and it doesn’t look like it’s far from something much bigger looking at the pattern and upper levels on the models either.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

So I will be conservative and say 65"...here are my last 4 seasons:

2018-2019: 47.5" (73.1% of normal)

2019-2020: 44" (67.7% of normal)

2020-2021: 51" (78.5% of normal)

2021-2022 (to date): 24.5" (37.7% or normal)

I would bet my life that Scooter, and especially Steve and most of all Will have done much better relative to average over this span.

64.25% of normal snowfall dating back to November 2018....obviously this can go up throughout the balance of this season. Again, my contention is that Will would have a much higher percentage, followed by Steve and Scott in descending order, but ALL would be higher than me....Will and Steve would blow me out of the water. Do the math, and if I am wrong, then I will simply shut it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

 

Believe me, I hear and feel the frustration as well.  But unfortunately it’s not March 21st yet, and we have 2 full weeks before it’s even February 21st, so I guess my point was, ya check in a couple times a day, and see the trends.  I agree, not feeling hopeful, but it’s not dead at all, and there will be more shots at storms. 
 

But ya, it’s been a stinker here so far. 

Totally agree.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Correctable at this range, but that PNW kicker is a big problem.

[WxWatcher007]

22 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Plenty of nice mild days this week to prep for warm season.  Really looking forward to a long, hot summer

Not gonna lie, a long hot summer with a cool neutral ENSO for tropical sounds excellent to me. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Correctable at this range, but that PNW kicker is a big problem.

Yes sir. It’s a long shot for sure. But as Will said yesterday,  it has some bigger long wave support going for it, so there is at least that.  But ya, I’m not feeling good about anything this winter has offered, or has yet to offer.  It’s been a tough go here. 

[MJO812]

54 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Exactly my thoughts...if you're left clinging to the MJO like a life raft in mid February, its probably time to focus on next season.

It dictates the pattern

You rather have the MJO in phase 4 or 5 now?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

It dictates the pattern

You rather have the MJO in phase 4 or 5 now?

Not necessarily....and even so, it doesn't mean that any single threat has to work out. 

[CoastalWx]

Ray,

 

17-18  69.1"

18-19  49.8"

19-20  22.6"

20-21  42.8"

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ray,

 

17-18  69.1"

18-19  49.8"

19-20  22.6"

20-21  42.8"

 

 

42.4" this season....not 2017-2018"....that was the last year that was fine. Its since then. I'll say you average 55"...

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

42.4" this season....not 2017-2018"....that was the last year that was fine. Its since then. I'll say you average 55"...

I included 17-18 because this season isn't done yet.

 

I think 55 is too high. I feel more comfortable with 48-50. Call it 50 maybe.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ray,

 

17-18  69.1"

18-19  49.8"

19-20  22.6"

20-21  42.8"

 

 

We're excluding 2017-2018

Anyways, I calculated Ginxy's % of normal if we included 2021-2022 like Ray did....the number will rise as we get more snow in 2021-22.

Total snow is 180.8 which is 73% of average.

 

For me, I'm at 77% of average since 2018-19.

 

 

[CoastalWx]

OK, I didn't know we were including this season. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

So I will be conservative and say 65"...here are my last 4 seasons:

2018-2019: 47.5" (73.1% of normal)

2019-2020: 44" (67.7% of normal)

2020-2021: 51" (78.5% of normal)

2021-2022 (to date): 24.5" (37.7% or normal)

I would bet my life that Scooter, and especially Steve and most of all Will have done much better relative to average over this span.

 

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

64.25% of normal snowfall dating back to November 2018....obviously this can go up throughout the balance of this season. Again, my contention is that Will would have a much higher percentage, followed by Steve and Scott in descending order, but ALL would be higher than me....Will and Steve would blow me out of the water. Do the math, and if I am wrong, then I will simply shut it.

 

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ray,

 

 

18-19  49.8" (99.6% of normal)

19-20  22.6" (45% of normal)

20-21  42.8" (85.6% or normal)

21-22 42.4" (84.8% or normal)

 

 

78.8% or normal over past 4 years.....14% higher than mine.

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

64.25% of normal snowfall dating back to November 2018....obviously this can go up throughout the balance of this season. Again, my contention is that Will would have a much higher percentage, followed by Steve and Scott in descending order, but ALL would be higher than me....Will and Steve would blow me out of the water. Do the math, and if I am wrong, then I will simply shut it.

 

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We're excluding 2017-2018

Anyways, I calculated Ginxy's % of normal if we included 2021-2022 like Ray did....the number will rise as we get more snow in 2021-22.

Total snow is 180.8 which is 73% of average.

 

For me, I'm at 77% of average since 2018-19.

 

 

 

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

78.8% or normal over past 4 years.....14% higher than mine.

Here you go, @Ginx snewx

Since Novie 2018, I am at 64.3% of normal, you are at 73%, Will at 77% and Scooter at 78.8%.

Anyway, not the end of the world, but that is what I was referring to...not a myth.

[Typhoon Tip]

33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Correctable at this range, but that PNW kicker is a big problem.

Fast flow characteristic that's dominated the seasons since 2007 causing that ... but no one's asking me lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Fast flow characteristic that's dominated the seasons since 2007 causing that ... but no one's asking me lol

What do you think is causing that? Do you have an opinion on the matter?

[Sn0waddict]

Looks like a real nice Saturday is possible for SNE if we can hold off the clouds until late in the day. Mid 50s and sun. 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, JC-CT said:

We are less than a month from meteorological spring. Snow in March isnt the same as snow in January...whatever falls in March has an expiration date of under a week.

Somewhat different at our latitude, at least through the first half of the month.  The 23-year average for snowpack here currently peaks at 21.6" on 3/2 and is still at 12.0" on the 31st.  It was up to 27" this morning but the present light rain may push it down a bit during the day.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, tamarack said:

Somewhat different at our latitude, at least through the first half of the month.  The 23-year average for snowpack here currently peaks at 21.6" on 3/2 and is still at 12.0" on the 31st.  It was up to 27" this morning but the present light rain may push it down a bit during the day.

Even where I am, I frequently have snow pack in the first couple weeks of March. It's more common to have pack here in early March than it is for most of December. It definitely changes after the first couple weeks.