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February 2022 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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  On 1/29/2022 at 7:33 PM, mahk_webstah said:

the antecedent airmass is warm and stale but a high feeds in cold and it gradually turns to sleet and then to snow?  something like that with a cold press?  That's be a nice event.

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Yup ... transition event.  

Tries to get mild but not impressed with the front side of the front's region for now.  Then said front slips past - noooormally, that will be ahead of guidance when it comes to these weight polar high transits through SE Canada ..wedging under.   Particularly, that kind set up will come SW down from Maine as coastal jet when the +PP lobes around the White's.  Anyway, the cold air deepens and isn't going the other way... If there is a overrunning during cold air's gradual deepening, we'll go through some ptype axis ...

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  On 1/29/2022 at 7:40 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup ... transition event.  

Tries to get mild but not impressed with the front side of the front's region for now.  Then said front slips past - noooormally, that will be ahead of guidance when it comes to these weight polar high transits through SE Canada ..wedging under.   Particularly, that kind set up will come SW down from Maine as coastal jet when the +PP lobes around the White's.  Anyway, the cold air deepens and isn't going the other way... If there is a overrunning during cold air's gradual deepening, we'll go through some ptype axis ...

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Look at the amount of qpf on day 6 from wpc:

Day 6 image not available

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  On 1/29/2022 at 7:07 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Ah yes ... it's always nicer to post-mortem our way out of an under-achiever ( relative to IMBY's of course - ), into another assurance for d-drip week, to keep us from crashing too hard. 

Haha... it's funny but true. I remember we use to talk about this up in the weather lab at UML back in college, how there's like a post-partum depression kinda of psycho babble after storms end.  I mean you're in after glow but ... by the third day, that wears off and if you are looking at an anathemic pattern, that can be a bit of a withdraw likeness. 

But this GGEM solution just converted a thaw into an cold rain --> ice/mix --> snow ordeal ... Big too actually. You know regardless of whether that happens or not for IMBYs, where that does take place, that may last a full 24 hours to transition through that. 

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The euro agreed with it

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Just like 10 days ago it looked like we were wasting a favorable pattern that was going to break down and transition to a mild Feb. Now, there’s a raging blizzard outside right now where I live and that warm up looks to be short lived, with a very cold pattern in mid Feb being shown on the long range models. It’s crazy how quickly things changed.

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  On 1/29/2022 at 7:47 PM, Go Kart Mozart said:

Geez the Euro....no break for the weary trackers.  Watch this be a bigger event than today for me!

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As currently modeled it definitely will be here.  However,   I'll need professional therapy, if the Friday storm morphs into the same areas that got hit today jacking again. 

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  On 1/29/2022 at 10:20 PM, 78Blizzard said:

GFS all alone with that warmer look:

...

...

...

...

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18z GFS substantial correction south.

actually ... this is a substantial ice storm threat for lower Missouri/southern IL up through the west OV as near as 96 hours ...

speed things up in fast hemisphere friends... But, the arm of high pressure presses through Ontario and sorry,... long years of experience, that ends up with a boundary south of here.   That's getting interesting... 120 hours we have overrunning pellet and cold rain streaking across the southern tier of NY into S VT and by later that evening we'll see what the entails here but I do NOT buy a polar boundary over recent snow pack, at climo cold time of year barely in the rear view mirror ...just hangin around southern NH ...no way! Not when pressure is rising through the mid range over/N of Montreal ..  not happening

Prolly should point out ...this next coverage is an entirely different type of system than this one. Not even the same synoptic ball park.

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  On 1/29/2022 at 10:37 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

18z GFS substantial correction south.

actually ... this is a substantial ice storm threat for lower Missouri/southern IL up through the west OV as near as 96 hours ...

speed things up in fast hemisphere friends... But, the arm of high pressure presses through Ontario and sorry,... long years of experience, that ends up with a boundary south of here.   That's getting interesting... 120 hours we have overrunning pellet and cold rain streaking across the southern tier of NY into S VT and by later that evening we'll see what the entails here but I do NOT buy a polar boundary over recent snow pack, at climo cold time of year barely in the rear view mirror ...just hangin around southern NH ...no way! Not when pressure is rising through the mid range over/N of Montreal ..  not happening

Prolly should point out ...this next coverage is an entirely different type of system than this one. Not even the same synoptic ball park.

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Yes, the 18Z that I posted did show that south correction from 12z.  Need to correct a lot more though.

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  On 1/30/2022 at 12:38 AM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Hoping that rain on Thursday aternoon/evening on the Euro becomes more white than wet... Ski Club that day.  We had to postpone last week due to no bus

On the Goofus it holds off... not that I am believing OPs at this range for that level of detail

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Euro is a snowstorm 

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