stormtracker Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 28 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said: I'd be pissed if my pizza was cut that way I would be apoplectic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 46 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah but I mean...we've had active shortwaves for the past month and ain't gotten but one or (or two if you're DC) to work. But of course, this is when you tell me that we were lucky to get anything out of 2 of the 5 and to never throw away other chances...and that more short waves=more spins of the wheel, and we always need multiple chances. How am I doing so far? Lol 4 events over an inch in January is nothing to scoff at. I mean sure, all but one didn't have the oomph to push warning snowfall most places but still, 4 productive events with little blocking and fast flow? Make no mistake, that is a gift of overpefromance. You have to be able to recognize that for what it really is. Treat them all in isolation too. Every setup so far has been quirky and not repetitive other than smallish northern stream personality. That looks to continue. Keep 'em coming. Rain, whiff, mix, or shellack... doesn't matter. Fast northern stream flow is always a numbers game. ALWAYS. Until there is an actual reason other than dumb luck, it's best to stay away from big storm thoughts. In this case, big would be over 6" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 hour ago, yoda said: UKIE is sharp... and I mean SHARP cutoff on snow amounts... went NW compared to 00z last night Still looks like a chance for a decent event here in Loudoun - and maybe a big storm for the Allegheny Front, which is really what I care about this time of year because there are no mountains to ski on the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Now watch the Euro come SE just to taunt us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Now watch the Euro come SE just to taunt us We'll find out shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Now watch the Euro come SE just to taunt us I remember when the Euro was king... apparently the king has been deposed, Game of Thrones style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 One big event, in addition to all the small events and persistent snowpack, would make this a really good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 I'll pick back up at around 78 hours. Up to 54 and not surprisingly, no changes vs 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 4 hours ago, wasnow215 said: Great analysis. There will NEVER be sustained spring beginning in early Feb. Lol on the contrary - a year where that happens will no doubt occur in our lifetimes. we've already had years where winter basically folded up shop in late feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 No meaningful changes at the surface at 72 vs 78 on 6z. Front is 8 to 1:30 angle 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 81 hours, same vs 6z 87 hours. front angle same as above. If anything it's slightly northwest of 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Ok, since 6z only goes to 90, now comparing with 12z GFS sfc. Very close surface wise to GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Very similar to GFS through 102 . Effing 7am to 1pm angle of the front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Next 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Next next what? nothing on horizon. boring. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 The euro just can’t be trusted outside about 72 hours. None of them really. But the euro seems hell bent on the 6 day fantasy snow storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Imgoinhungry said: next what? nothing on horizon. boring. to whatever shows up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Very similar to GFS through 102 . Effing 7am to 1pm angle of the front Seems like every time the tpv or arctic front is prog'd in the mid/long range to push ESE, the actual progression is due south then slow crawl east. Always steepens the hill too much to get a good vector for snowfall. Cold angle is no doubt a real thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 so 138, has a northern vort diving down from Canada. Southern vort just in front of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 Gotta get that high sitting south of Newfoundland to push off to the east sooner. It hangs around longer this time. The high the euro has is plenty strong enough to push that boundary south if that were to happen. This is good. Maybe this will look like crap for 3 more days and then BANG. Keep me away from model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 suffice it to say, looks nothing like the GFS at 150 (H5) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: so 138, has a northern vort diving down from Canada. Southern vort just in front of it. Uh oh we don't want a full phase in the West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 156 looks a bit interesting. Looks like a phase out in the middle of the country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Uh oh we don't want a full phase in the West Correct, but there's a vort in the NE that's kinda acting like a pseudo 50/50, but it's moving in tandem, with everything else, so ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Uh oh we don't want a full phase in the West I want one. I want a qpf bomb into cad. Sick of qpf scraps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Correct, but there's a vort in the NE that's kinda acting like a pseudo 50/50, but it's moving in tandem, with everything else, so ... Noted. Thanks for the pbp Randy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Looked decent at first, but the southern vort escaped and is out in front of the northern vort that's still digging a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 If anything that southern vort might have f*cked us..its out ahead of the deeping/digging northern vort/trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: If anything that southern vort might have f*cked us..its out ahead of the deeping/digging northern vort/trough Timing diffs, not a huge surprise at range. Looks like we have a very brief 'relax'/gradient pattern thru Thurs-Friday then we go right back into an active/trackable pattern. Works for me....reload it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Terrible H5 map through 198. All kinds of vorts on the field...one just south of us..one diving from Canada via the dakotas one off the coast of British Columbia...none show any promise so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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