aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Just now, Solution Man said: Hmmmmmm, keep adding m’s on the end and its different Most I've ever seen was 12...after that it loses its meaning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Well this looks familiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Well this looks familiar. and not a damn thing comes of it. I hate the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Hmmmmm.....no reason...seems to be the go to lately Hey, I've never dropped a "hmmmm". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 As a warminista, I hope 324 DOESN' deliver for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: and not a damn thing comes of it. I hate the GFS Unless the GFS is just giving us the reality earlier so we won't be sucked in...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 7 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: please don't stop. **** Yeoman. I'll be hosting a model reading 101 class on Zoom at 10pm if I have time 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 D10 period on GooFuS looks potentially interesting but man that is far away. and it is gonna be a muddy mess around here for the next ten days. Love early Feb inside the beltway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 I will take my chances in mid February if this look comes anywhere close to verifying. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 UKMET looks warmer....good bit of moisture tho. 0 line right over or hair west of DC during the heavies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 UK is at least consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Unless the GFS is just giving us the reality earlier so we won't be sucked in...lol That’s why it’s new and improved. Says no before Euro Dr. No says so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 UKMET looks warmer....good bit of moisture tho. 0 line right over or hair west of DC during the heaviesIt’s worse than 0z but I like seeing a storm - good for NW areas. Maybe 2” in DC verbatim after a lot of rain/maybe ice, I can’t see the temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 UKIE is sharp... and I mean SHARP cutoff on snow amounts... went NW compared to 00z last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: It’s worse than 0z but I like seeing a storm - good for NW areas. Maybe 2” in DC verbatim after a lot of rain/maybe ice, I can’t see the temps oof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: and not a damn thing comes of it. I hate the GFS Alignment of the entire frontal progression doesn't work here basically ever as the gfs shows. Any front aligned steeper than 8am - 2pm on a clock is cold chasing precip. Our window starts at 8am - 2pm angle without a kink in the flow. 8:30am to 2:30pm angle is where warning events start. It's a simple way to look at it but you won't find too many odds beaters inside of that rule of thumb Eta: developing your own rules of thumb goes a long ways towards developing your own thoughts different than what mid range models show. I mean sure, there could be vigorous wave run a steep boundary and snow. But if the models showed that 5 days out with a steep frontal boundary, it's time to strongly doubt model output. Just one tiny example of unlimited ways to develop your own skills beyond model TV 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Ehh boo. Cold rainy this week, it looks like...and not much room for anything behind. Heh, first week in almost a month we won't have anything within 5-7 days to track! But I think we all need the break though...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 ^^pays attention in class 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ehh boo. Cold rainy this week, it looks like...and not much room for anything behind. Heh, first week in almost a month we won't have anything within 5-7 days to track! But I think we all need the break though...lol Could track everyday and already did it twice this Sunday if snow is involved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Alignment of the entire frontal progression doesn't work here basically ever as the gfs shows. Any front aligned steeper than 8am - 2pm on a clock is cold chasing precip. Our window starts at 8am - 2pm angle without a kink in the flow. 8:30am to 2:30pm angle is where warning events start. It's a simple way to look at it but you won't find too many odds beaters inside of that rule of thumb Eta: developing your own rules of thumb goes a long ways towards developing your own thoughts different than what mid range models show. I mean sure, there could be vigorous wave run a steep boundary and snow. But if the models showed that 5 days out with a steep frontal boundary, it's time to strongly doubt model output. Just one tiny example of unlimited ways to develop your own skills beyond model TV I'm 100% using this in any future pbp. I never could figure out how to describe the angle of the front. Brilliant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ehh boo. Cold rainy this week, it looks like...and not much room for anything behind. Heh, first week in almost a month we won't have anything within 5-7 days to track! But I think we all need the break though...lol We don't have a handle on anything behind the front because the front itself has plenty of divergence. We'll get an 8 month break pretty quick here too.. This is winters 7th inning stretch with active shortwaves and cold Canada. Taking a break now goes against weenie dna 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I'm 100% using this in any future pbp. I never could figure out how to describe the angle of the front. Brilliant. In my head I use angle degrees but good lord that's a tough way to describe a visual. The clock way of looking at it just popped into my head. I like it too!! Except nobody owns analog clocks anymore 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: In my head I use angle degrees but good lord that's a tough way to describe a visual. The clock way of looking at it just popped into my head. I like it too!! Except nobody owns analog clocks anymore 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We don't have a handle on anything behind the front because the front itself has plenty of divergence. We'll get an 8 month break pretty quick here too.. This is winters 7th inning stretch with active shortwaves and cold Canada. Taking a break now goes against weenie dna Yeah but I mean...we've had active shortwaves for the past month and ain't gotten but one or (or two if you're DC) to work. But of course, this is when you tell me that we were lucky to get anything out of 2 of the 5 and to never throw away other chances...and that more short waves=more spins of the wheel, and we always need multiple chances. How am I doing so far? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 7 minutes ago, Paleocene said: I'd be pissed if my pizza was cut that way 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 29 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ehh boo. Cold rainy this week, it looks like...and not much room for anything behind. Heh, first week in almost a month we won't have anything within 5-7 days to track! But I think we all need the break though...lol We're in the game. Doesn't mean we score but we haven't been in a shut out pattern since December. December was when you look at ensembles once a day looking for that pattern change 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 31 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ehh boo. Cold rainy this week, it looks like...and not much room for anything behind. Heh, first week in almost a month we won't have anything within 5-7 days to track! But I think we all need the break though...lol Nothing’s settled. Not sure you can declare with confidence it’s “cold rainy this week” and “not much room for anything behind” - a week ago, people were talking about a February torch. How are those calls working out a week later? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: Nothing’s settled. Not sure you can declare with confidence it’s “cold rainy this week” and “not much room for anything behind” - a week ago, people were talking about a February torch. How are those calls working out a week later? Now as far as the torch is concerned...wasn't that more of a long range pattern prediction? While I do relent on the "not room for anything behind" since that's more Day 7/8 (wasn't referring to anything beyond that, btw)...I just haven't seen much for this week's setup that says anything more than cold rain with snow n + w as depicted on the GFS. And with the UK coming in warmer too...eh, just looks messy. But after that, if we can keep playing the boundary wave game I agree we might have a chance to score on one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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