Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[IronTy]

It's cold out.  I think that was it for this winter's storms.  Spring is incoming once we get through the next ten days.  

[Warm Nose]

So much wishcasting. On both sides. 

Let it play out. 

[Weather Will]

WB extended GEFS from last night says we will have chances in February 

[wasnow215]

19 minutes ago, IronTy said:

It's cold out.  I think that was it for this winter's storms.  Spring is incoming once we get through the next ten days.  

Great analysis. There will NEVER be sustained spring beginning in early Feb. Lol

[Solution Man]

45 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

 

Solid analysis by the both of you. We're lucky to have you!!

Agree, I hear they will be doing a simulcast tonight. Looking forward to their analysis 

[snowfan]

Overall, both the GFS and EURO are void of any extended warmth in the long range. That aligns with the latest 8-14 day outlook. 

[peribonca]

Looks like we're going to spend some time in mjo phase 3 so that should be good

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Overall, both the GFS and EURO are void of any extended warmth in the long range. That aligns with the latest 8-14 day outlook. 

Yes I don’t think we can call it a winter at the end of Jan.  It does snow in Feb every now and again. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

It's cold out.  I think that was it for this winter's storms.  Spring is incoming once we get through the next ten days.  

Spring is coming for you. We will send you pics of winter.

[Weather Will]

Personally, I always have President’s Day as the time to assess whether there are any chances left.  I am not going to get depressed or worry about the end of winter for at least three weeks….

 

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, wasnow215 said:

Great analysis. There will NEVER be sustained spring beginning in early Feb. Lol

2012 would like a word with you.  My wife found a freshly eclosed Luna moth the first week of April!

 

Yeah I'm just making shit up but I got a feeling.  

[Bob Chill]

I don't dig back thru tons of recent runs to find trends as I'm mostly forward looking but I did spend a few minutes this AM. I won't go into detail but remember when the oranges were freezing in Jacksonville in early Feb on the models early last week? People talked suppression(briefly) and I distinctly remember @WxUSAFsaying he'd take the under. I quietly but violently agreed.

Not only has the depth of cold backed waaaaay off (I know... shocking). Now the boundary is back to struggling to press and looking hilly instead of a broad carves. 0z gfs op is pointing towards a NS wave north of us after the boundary finally pushes south. Well, that f'n sux. Return flow will rot any cold air below it. That's why the 0z run had a perfect track rainer.  If we can't get a big cold dome to carve and settle, we got problems because without deep cold air to fight against, our odds get really touchy. 

[Bob Chill]

Here's a good visual. When I started seeing the big bowl showing up and temp gradients looking like this on multiple models, I got excited. This is how we win without a block. Lots of iterations but here's how mid level temps NEED to look for a good overrunner. We had this across most guidance at the same general time. 

 

And here's the kick in the nuts 0z version of the same period....

 

 

Obvious right? 

Now ens are hinting ar the same bowl carve just further out in time. Might be a mirage. Seems elusive. Time will tell 

[stormtracker]

Well here we are.  GFS is starting to bore me, so the pbp from me prob won't be as rapid fire and until I see something that jumps out.   Let's hope we get a UKMET copy on the GFS

[jayyy]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Well here we are.  GFS is starting to bore me, so the pbp from me prob won't be as rapid fire and until I see something that jumps out.   Let's hope we get a UKMET copy on the GFS

Banking on the UKMET to lead the way… what could go wrong

[87storms]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Here's a good visual. When I started seeing the big bowl showing up and temp gradients looking like this on multiple models, I got excited. This is how we win without a block. Lots of iterations but here's how mid level temps NEED to look for a good overrunner. We had this across most guidance at the same general time. 

 

And here's the kick in the nuts 0z version of the same period....

 

 

Obvious right? 

Now ens are hinting ar the same bowl carve just further out in time. Might be a mirage. Seems elusive. Time will tell 

looks decent for cad, though, but we're gonna need a vort hot on its tail to get something to work.  i don't know enough to say, but i imagine the lack of blocking is why the last storm formed way the heck out in the atlantic instead of reforming closer to the coast or even inland.  

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well here we are.  GFS is starting to bore me, so the pbp from me prob won't be as rapid fire and until I see something that jumps out.   Let's hope we get a UKMET copy on the GFS

So much hinges on how the upper and mids set up after the boundary that until that is locked down, boy it gets hard to trust a single thing beyond (on any piece of guidance). I'm getting tired of the cold ROAR turning into a little meow

[stormtracker]

I wish we could get something solid and under 125 hours.   This long lede shit with low ROI is getting tiresome. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

So much hinges on how the upper and mids set up after the boundary that until that is locked down, boy it gets hard to trust a single thing beyond (on any piece of guidance). I'm getting tired of the cold ROAR turning into a little meow

This.  All of this.

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, 87storms said:

looks decent for cad, though, but we're gonna need a vort hot on its tail to get something to work.  i don't know enough to say, but i imagine the lack of blocking is why the last storm formed way the heck out in the atlantic instead of reforming closer to the coast or even inland.  

At the point in time it does but that is a huge swath of SW flow in the mids and its moving east. Insitu cad at best. Need a cad setup with a feed. The only thing standing in the way is depth of cold. If northern or even arctic stream shortwaves run horizontally above us, we've got an extra layer of difficulty to overcome. We do complicated so well we shouldn't worry tho

[WinterWxLuvr]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Here's a good visual. When I started seeing the big bowl showing up and temp gradients looking like this on multiple models, I got excited. This is how we win without a block. Lots of iterations but here's how mid level temps NEED to look for a good overrunner. We had this across most guidance at the same general time. 

 

And here's the kick in the nuts 0z version of the same period....

 

 

Obvious right? 

Now ens are hinting ar the same bowl carve just further out in time. Might be a mirage. Seems elusive. Time will tell 

There’s always a low in the upper Midwest the closer we get in time.

[Solution Man]

Icon stuck in mud with a low attacking a 1039 high

[clskinsfan]

I think the ICON is lining us up at 168. But who knows? The damn thing refuses to even run correctly on TT.

[Bob Chill]

19 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This.  All of this.

If the upcoming week continues the streak to morph cold domes into jagged hilly pockets of cold on the move, my interest is going to drop pretty quick. No sense analyzing the inner edge of the long range if it's just going to keep turning into the same ole same ole. Still not a shutout pattern so that's solid. But a very touchy and complicated one anyways... and that's as solid as Avanti's intelligence. 

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

There’s always a low in the upper Midwest the closer we get in time.

Thing is, its only there because the arctic mass lost its legs and decided Canada is more fun. I can promise you, if -20 850e ran wall to wall above us from the GLs to Maine, there would be no shortwave drawing flow from the SW because it couldn't exist in that environment. Would be nice to get a real intrusion and let it settle instead of glancing quick movers. 

[IronTy]

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This.  All of this.

Was outside walking the dog a few mins ago and the sun angle was so high my vitamin D levels doubled in five minutes.  It's over.  

[stormtracker]

Nothing notable on the GFS by 72 hours.  vort out west stretched a little more wester into the pacific..that's it

[yoda]

9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I think the ICON is lining us up at 168. But who knows? The damn thing refuses to even run correctly on TT.

You will get a few hours of light snow and like it good sir (thats what it shows)

[stormtracker]

72..front moved SE vs 6z position by about 40 miles in the ohio valley.  Noise so far...

[Bob Chill]

9 minutes ago, jayyy said:

The front not pressing far or quick enough south isn’t really our issue with these boundary setups. Not in Maryland.  We’ve done quite well over the years with these overrunning events. 

We do but typically not on the front side of the boundary cross. Usually happens after it pushes south to NC (or wherever) and puts it in reverse. To get the front side, you can't have a steep SW-NE angle to the front. There almost always has to be some sort of "drape" so the cold air can push down vertically instead of diagonally. The more the boundary is aligned diagonally and steep, the higher the probability if cold getting in too late no matter what the mid range shows.