Cobalt Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: EURO more suppressed than 12z - ice across the area and snow in the NW parts at 129 Looks like 129 is the changeover panel, 850s are below freezing for points near and slightly SE of DC then. Surface temps in the mid 20s. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Looks like 129 is the changeover panel, 850s are below freezing for points near and slightly SE of DC then. Surface temps in the mid 20s.On the 3hr panels looks like DCA might flip to snow by 129? It’s an improvement over 12z regardless 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 gefs sucked for the thurs-fri threat btw -- not worth mentioning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: gefs sucked for the thurs-fri threat btw -- not worth mentioning Says the one who just mentioned it...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Says the one who just mentioned it...lol fair enough -- looking at what i can while the EURO is stuck at 129 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 the EURO might actually be stuck at 129 -- what a tease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: the EURO might actually be stuck at 129 -- what a tease i think it might've about to be really good -- looked like an LP wanted to form in the Carolinas -- it probably wouldn't have been the UKIE but I think it would've been respectable area wide in addition to the ice 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: the EURO might actually be stuck at 129 -- what a tease I have 4 different sites open to see if one went past that hour... none lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, yoda said: I have 4 different sites open to see if one went past that hour... none lol eps will get past 129 in like 10 minutes lol -- might as well see it at this point 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: eps will get past 129 in like 10 minutes lol -- might as well see it at this point just kidding, it also seems frozen. good night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: just kidding, it also seems frozen. good night it unfroze 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Would be snow until 138 or so... thats when precip exits the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Would be snow until 138 or so... thats when precip exits the area3-6” area wide on top of a significant glaze of ice? Sign me up. Just need the GFS to be onboard sooner rather than later 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 00z EPS mean is not enthused as the 18z was for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 WB 0Z EURO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 I still can't get used to saying this, but. .I just can't get with this until the GFS is wit it. What if, 10 years ago, somebody said that one day you're gonna say the GFS is better than the Euro. You would have checked them in to a mental institution. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z EURO I may allow it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Morning AFD from LWX about the threat: .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... At the start of the long term period, a broad, positively tilted longwave trough will reside across central and western portions of the CONUS. Meanwhile, a strong subtropical ridge will be centered over the western Atlantic. This will result in a broad fetch of southwesterly flow aloft across the eastern half of the CONUS. At the surface, very strong Canadian high pressure (well over 1040 hPa) will descend from the Canadian Prairies toward the Upper Midwest. At the same time, a broad area of high pressure will be situated over the eastern Atlantic. A very strong baroclinic zone will develop along the interface between the cold, dry northerlies ahead of the Canadian high and the warm, moist southerlies on the backside of the oceanic high. On Wednesday this boundary will be oriented from Texas toward the Great Lakes. This boundary will gradually sag southeastward through the remainder of the week as the strong area of Canadian high pressure builds into the Northern Plains. At upper levels, a strong southwest to northeast oriented jet will develop in response to the strong temperature gradient along the frontal boundary. There is a broad consensus among deterministic and ensemble solutions that these larger scale features will be in place come Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, but a fair amount of uncertainty remains with respect to the exact positioning of these features over time, and the resultant finer scale details of the weather forecast locally (especially as we move into Thursday night and Friday). We'll reside on the warm side of the aforementioned boundary on Wednesday. Southerly flow will transport warmer temperatures into the area, with forecast highs expected to reach well into the 40s, and possible even the lower 50s. While it will be cloudy, not much in the way of precipitation is expected during the daylight hours. Chances for precipitation will increase Wednesday night into Thursday as the frontal zone approaches from the northwest. One or more disturbances may traverse through the southwesterly flow aloft and act to enhance precipitation within the broader zone of ascent ahead of the approaching trough, but there is considerable spread with respect to these finer scale details. However, models are in agreement that days worth of flow around the oceanic high will act to transport highly anomalous values (around 2-4 sigma, absolute values around 1-1.5 inches) of precipitable water out of the tropics and focus them along/ahead of this frontal boundary. As a result, heavy rainfall may be possible. As rains occur atop snow pack in western portions of the forecast area, localized instances of flooding may be possible. Wintry precipitation may also be possible by Thursday night into Friday as colder air starts to work into the area. However, spread in both the deterministic and ensemble guidance remains high. Very small changes in how relatively minor disturbances work through the strong southwesterly flow aloft could have major impacts on how the forecast evolves, especially with such a strong temperature gradient nearby. By Friday night into Saturday, the longwave trough initially located off to our west will push offshore, driving a strong cold front through the area. Colder and drier conditions are expected in its wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 after how the models have been this year im not putting much stock in any long range model lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Besides 06z GFS being boring as hell, I do find it kind of funny that h5 at 150 a strong s/w is cruising into the West and then is like, oh wait, that little h5 cutoff low way SW of me looks tasteh... let me go SW for a bite... and proceeds to absorb that h5 and become some giant h5 low that has 5 closed contours (see 180) and finally kicks itself out at 204 like nothing happened... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 CMC, ICON and GFS want nothing to do with making this a threat. Nam and RGEM seem poised to follow at the end of their runs. My hunch is that Euro and Ukie lose it today or tomorrow at the latest. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 06z EURO at 90 would appear to be a bit further north than its 00z run would be... esp with the cold press in the OV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 42 minutes ago, MD Snow said: CMC, ICON and GFS want nothing to do with making this a threat. Nam and RGEM seem poised to follow at the end of their runs. My hunch is that Euro and Ukie lose it today or tomorrow at the latest. Well aren’t you a bundle of sunshine 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Hard to buy into a threat like this. The cold press is never as far south or as quick as models show. This will be congrats Central PA and NY. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Just now, osfan24 said: Hard to buy into a threat like this. The cold press is never as far south or as quick as models show. This will be congrats Central PA and NY. And more sunshine. Thanks again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 I have not really paid much attention to the late week deal, but just looking at the 0z runs of the ops/ensembles, the Euro/EPS, and to some degree the Canadian, have weaker low pressure along the Gulf coast and move it NE along the cold front such that the low tracks to our SE. The weaker nature of the low allows the cold to press east faster on the Euro. Canadian/CMC ens don't get the cold in quite as fast so its mostly rain. GFS has a stronger low tracking along the front further west and delays the arrival of colder air. GEFS mostly agrees but there are a a handful of members that imply some frozen. As usual, we watch the trends in the coming days. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 hour ago, MD Snow said: CMC, ICON and GFS want nothing to do with making this a threat. Nam and RGEM seem poised to follow at the end of their runs. My hunch is that Euro and Ukie lose it today or tomorrow at the latest. 22 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Hard to buy into a threat like this. The cold press is never as far south or as quick as models show. This will be congrats Central PA and NY. Solid analysis by the both of you. We're lucky to have you!! 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 21 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Hard to buy into a threat like this. The cold press is never as far south or as quick as models show. This will be congrats Central PA and NY. Well, it is hard to argue that is the outcome more times than not in these setups, but there is a chance. Euro getting it done at this juncture. The GFS 'dominance' over the Euro thing is mostly hyperbole btw. GFS blew chunks this last storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 WB 6Z EPS and Control not good this run for late week threat. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: Well, it is hard to argue that is the outcome more times than not in these setups, but there is a chance. Euro getting it done at this juncture. The GFS 'dominance' over the Euro thing is mostly hyperbole btw. GFS blew chunks this last storm. Exactly, Euro had those big totals for Boston 4 days out. GFS had it off the coast at 4 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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