stormtracker Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 southern vort swing up towards us, but northern vort is behind it but won't phase at all. SFC is dry and umimpressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 51 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm a really good room reader. I can literally feel your anguish as you prod thru iterations of the same general question in hopes of someone saying it's definitely going to dump in a week and not to worry We discuss generalities here really well. Complete piece by piece longwave analysis any time something looks like more than a shutout. You constantly try to drill one level deeper into specifics at times when generalities are still pretty muddy. Real frustration and unhappiness comes thru strong on your posts. Can be hard to read sometimes honestly. I'm saying this because I feel bad for you at times. Not because I'm a big meanie who wants to call everyone out. Now hang on...this part here simply isn't true. I'm not looking for bs on here--just a better idea of what might happen, what we need to see for a better chance, and what went wrong in a particular scenario depicted on a model run. Not looking for anybody to sugar-coat anything. I have no idea of "iteration of the same general question" Like...when? I can understand last year--and I've tried to keep that in mind: don't ask hyper specifics. But this year? This past storm I did nothing but ask "What needs to happen here"? Not whether it absolutely will. I look for positive trends just like everybody else. Like who here doesn't? Lol So forgive me if I don't know the rules And dang it of course everybody would LIKE to know what's going to happen, even though we know weather is gonna weather. There's much I still don't understand and I'm trying to learn how stuff works. But yet where do ya learn...ain't no other forum that talks about any of this, and it ain't like there's a bunch of online lectures (if it is tell me). Now as for the other...yes I do get miserable when things don't turn out well--absolutely. But you cannot tell me I'm the only one here that does...are you kidding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Dry through 192..there is a vort down by Houston, but nothing..northern stream all the way up in WI chillin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: Listen I'm learnin', alright? Ya kinda called me out on that last year and I heard ya...just taking a bit and I'm learning with some experience I'm slowly embracing the chaos of all this It's just my nature to wanna know what gives the best CHANCE of something happening, what helps and what can get in the way...what might go right, what may go wrong...why something is happening. I'm a big WHY person. So if we can't expect anything...what good are LR discussions, then? Good patterns can mean nothing, bad patterns can mean nothing...so what's the point? think in terms of probabilities. the point bob is trying to get through to you is that much like in sports, there is no formula to predict 100% what the outcome will be, but a lot of people still watch sports. if your team is in the hunt for the playoffs (ns and ss potential phase), you'll want to track them more so than if they're 10 games under 500 (clipper-driven miller B), but if you love your team and/or the sport enough you'll track them no matter what (weather junkies). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 H5 interesting at 205...northern stream digging down and a pos titlted trof has formed. If it phases with the sourthern vort that was over houston and now is over the deep south.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Don't think it will phase go negative quick enough...but interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 I call this piece: Three ships in the night medium: weenie tears on Cray supercomputer 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Yeah, they are phasing, storm forming off the coast...BUT, looks like it'll be one of the type deals we got now..just too far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 8 minutes ago, 87storms said: think in terms of probabilities. the point bob is trying to get through to you is that much like in sports, there is no formula to predict 100% what the outcome will be, but a lot of people still watch sports. if your team is in the hunt for the playoffs (ns and ss potential phase), you'll want to track them more so than if they're 10 games under 500 (clipper-driven miller B), but if you love your team and/or the sport enough you'll track then no matter what (weather junkies). I'm not looking for 100% probabilities, though...I think ya got that part wrong. I watch model runs like sports: A good model run is like when your team scores a touchdown. A bad one is like when your team throws a pick-6 or something. I feel good or bad about a run accordingly. And just like you try to discuss and figure out how your team can make a comeback, why is it any different, then...to do the same with model runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Yup, swing and a miss...just phases too late\too far east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Yeah, they are phasing, storm forming off the coast...BUT, looks like it'll be one of the type deals we got now..just too far east Agree. Phase looks too late, but it’s something to track at least! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just now, losetoa6 said: At least 4 vorts in the conus per Euro after the Thursday storm . Take your pick Yeah I'll pick...none of 'em! One ready to screw up another Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, they are phasing, storm forming off the coast...BUT, looks like it'll be one of the type deals we got now..just too far east Nope, not worth it--it'll be just like today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Off to the gym. See yall at 18z 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'm not looking for 100% probabilities, though...I think ya got that part wrong. I watch model runs like sports: A good model run is like when your team scores a touchdown. A bad one is like when your team throws a pick-6 or something. I feel good or bad about a run accordingly. And just like you try to discuss and figure out how your team can make a comeback, why is it any different, then...to do the same with modem runs? i think that's actually a fair analogy and a good one. however, there's a difference between saying (or assuming) a game is over after a pick 6 when there's still enough time and understanding that there may still be enough time. it's the difference between getting too high or low on something you can't control. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Again, as snowfan mentioned, my snowfall totals can be off since I can't see ZR/Sleet. I can definitely tell frozen tho, so I may be useless on the accumulation part in situations where we don't have the entire column. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 I honestly don't know what questions to ask and not ask anymore (or if there's a limit). But I'm starting not to care aboru whatever the rule is...if I wanna know what happened on a particular model run, dang it I'm askin'! Like when @WinterWxLuvrhighlighted the vorts the other day? Very helpful! At least I know WHY the storm went the way it did, and how that vort was getting in the way. Was I angry at that vort (or the "tail" per se)? Absolutely! But at least I Iearned something about WHY the modeled solution was happening. Now tell me...was it wrong to ask that question? Too specific? Is it wrong to wanna know what's muckin' it up, and what might make a solution better/give us a better chance? All of the discussion this week helped me reach the conclusion that this was a long shot and I kinda tuned it out by lime Wednesday. But NOW...I know that any setup like this without some good blocking, and in a progressive pattern, is a long shot that probably won't happen outside a big fluke. And now I also am learning why more of a gradient pattern has somewhat better (but not guaranteed) chance of working in a pattern like this. None would I learn without asking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 I expect continued cold, as -EPO is a colder than forecasted pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 February's have been wetter than normal but we in a La Nina, and models are dry. If it precip's, I expect snow north of 40N, not that pattern though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Boundary seems to have a little more confluence over top...still too warm this run but a little further south with the boundary, it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Ukmet storm is a dud on the 18z gfs. Front passes. Dry after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Came over here looking for hope! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Yep...Gfs was a positive shift for late week . A bit more progressive ns So in this case, we actually want something more progressive, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1050 HP on the GFS this run. I cant really see anything cutting into that. But what do I know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: 1050 HP on the GFS this run. I cant really see anything cutting into that. But what do I know? Yeah but it appears to be making a break for it, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Possible CAD setup past 180 hours The euro says possible CAD setup past 150 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Thats about as weenie of a run as you can ask for from the GFS. And it's not really a complicated setup. Get the boundary set and run waves up it for the next couple of weeks. Bring it. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 15 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Thats about as weenie of a run as you can ask for from the GFS. And it's not really a complicated setup. Get the boundary set and run waves up it for the next couple of weeks. Bring it. Can we get the Euro speed with the boundary and then the gfs train of waves? This is the question that will occupy those in the region for the next couple of days. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Going to see my man tonight. Well he's been dead for almost 200 years, so if I actually see him, I'm running the f*ck out of the Kennedy Center. I'll be back for the 0z fun and games if anybody cares. Lucky it ain't my other dude's work, Mahler...I wouldn't be back until 6z. (Music nerd joke, sorry) 10 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Going to see my man tonight. Well he's been dead for almost 200 years, so if I actually see him, I'm running the f*ck out of the Kennedy Center. I'll be back for the 0z fun and games if anybody cares. Lucky it ain't my other dude's work, Mahler...I wouldn't be back until 6z. (Music nerd joke, sorry) Have fun brother!!! Rock out to those Eroica chords!! Woo!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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