BristowWx Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Listen I'm learnin', alright? Ya kinda called me out on that last year and I heard ya. I'm slowly embracing the chaos of all this It's just my nature to wanna know what gives the best CHANCE of something happening, what helps and what can get in the way. So if we can't expect anything...what good are LR discussions, then? Good patterns can mean nothing, bad patterns can mean nothing...so what's the point? Because what else would we do…and we need a reason to drink more than we should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ninos often feature the pineapple connection or a stream of moisture and/or shortwaves from HI to Socal. When storms enter the country in socal it's WAAAAY different than when they enter in Seattle. That's the primary reason we like ninos. The further south a storm enters the conus, the better chance of it staying south of us. Plenty of ninos never get that though and it can happen in any enso state. When i read your posts and questions it always looks like a constant search for 1+2=3 in weather. You gotta move past that quick here. It has never and will never work that way. We've wasted ungodly good setups and gotten hit flush in some of the dumbest. Never ever expect anything to do anything in particular no matter what Eta: when I see a nice blocked pattern with a 50/50 or whatever, all it tells me that there is a real CHANCE at a big storm. Not that there will be a storm. And even if there is, a lot still has to break right to take advantage of the longwave setup. When models spit out a big blocked storm a week out, it makes sense to me. That's it. When models spit out an unblocked coastal ripper big hit a week out, it will never make enough sense to me to expect anything. I assume the last time we saw a blocked pattern a week out was Jan ‘16, is that correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 6 minutes ago, chris21 said: 12z Ukie is a nice hit for the entire area on Thursday. Canadian appears to be trying to push the boundary south. The GEFS have been keying on that period as wintry -- maybe more ice than snow, but it's good to have something in the medium range to keep a lazy eye on. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 The cold will not be denied! Let the se trend commence lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 UKIE honestly looks like it would've been a monster hit had it been let to go out a little longer. Last panel: Total snow MSLP 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 The 6z EPS paints ~1" over most of the area from 18z Thurs - 06z Fri. At 0z, it had just a tenth or so. #trending 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Well let’s see if the look keeps improving. Definitely gonna keep an eye on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: The 6z EPS paints ~1" over most of the area from 18z Thurs - 06z Fri. At 0z, it had just a tenth or so. #trending The 06z Control has a storm too, more snow to fall after this panel: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Alright folks…Maestro’s math doesn’t add up, so let’s all just stop talking about it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 33 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Because what else would we do…and we need a reason to drink more than we should. I guess u don’t bet on sports… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 17 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: The 6z EPS paints ~1" over most of the area from 18z Thurs - 06z Fri. At 0z, it had just a tenth or so. #trending Add an inch for each run, just like how you multiply your 25 time by 4 to get your 100 time in swim and we are looking at about 2 feet of snow. What can go wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Glad I missed the GFS. WIll try to do Euro pbp. Was on the phone with my mom for like an hour, with the first 25 minutes consisting of "why you don't call me?" as I am on the phone with her because.....I called her. Happens every week. 2 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 8 minutes ago, mattie g said: Alright folks…Maestro’s math doesn’t add up, so let’s all just stop talking about it. Ah dang it what has Chill done...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Glad I missed the GFS. WIll try to do Euro pbp. Was on the phone with my mom for like an hour, with the first 25 minutes consisting of "why you don't call me?" as I am on the phone with her because.....I called her. Happens every week. Ukie was good and 06z control has storm, late week timeframe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 53 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: I assume the last time we saw a blocked pattern a week out was Jan ‘16, is that correct? We've wasted a few great ones since but that was the last classic hit. Last year had some great blocking. Upper air looked great plenty but when you opened up the 850 temp panels... ooof.... what a disaster. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 15 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Ukie was good and 06z control has storm, late week timeframe Ah. Yeah, just read up about the UKMET. I'll focus in on that time period. So 120 ish to 240. Compare it to the UK/GFS for reference. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: Listen I'm learnin', alright? Ya kinda called me out on that last year and I heard ya...just taking a bit and I'm learning with some experience I'm slowly embracing the chaos of all this It's just my nature to wanna know what gives the best CHANCE of something happening, what helps and what can get in the way...what might go right, what may go wrong...why something is happening. I'm a big WHY person. So if we can't expect anything...what good are LR discussions, then? Good patterns can mean nothing, bad patterns can mean nothing...so what's the point? I'm a really good room reader. I can literally feel your anguish as you prod thru iterations of the same general question in hopes of someone saying it's definitely going to dump in a week and not to worry We discuss generalities here really well. Complete piece by piece longwave analysis any time something looks like more than a shutout. You constantly try to drill one level deeper into specifics at times when generalities are still pretty muddy. Real frustration and unhappiness comes thru strong on your posts. Can be hard to read sometimes honestly. I'm saying this because I feel bad for you at times. Not because I'm a big meanie who wants to call everyone out 8 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 GFS and CMC couldnt be further apart with the 500 look next weekend. Let the model wars continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: GFS and CMC couldnt be further apart with the 500 look next weekend. Let the model wars continue. gfs will win 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: gfs will win What this poster said. Especially if the GFS shows fail/rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just now, Imgoinhungry said: gfs will win Probably. But it is kind of on its own so far. With the way it has performed this winter It cannot be discounted. That is for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 I do not profess to know if this means anything, but the Euro and UKMET are about as close as you can get at H5...but only at 96 hours. 12z GFS wasn't that far off either. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 gfs will winLike it "won" with today's storm?Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 I've got 5 tabs of models open. I'm bound to f*ck something up. So far so good tho 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Wait, we have a storm to track for thurs - fri? yeeeees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 108. Euro (UKMET) more progressive than GFS with the trough and front on the southern end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 111, Euro is not as amp'd (heights are lower) out in front compared to GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: So if we can't expect anything...what good are LR discussions, then? Good patterns can mean nothing, bad patterns can mean nothing...so what's the point? Because good results are much more probable in good patterns and bad results are much more probable in bad patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 117, shit gathering at SFC down south...but Euro is further east and south with front than GFS..more so on the southern end 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just now, cbmclean said: Because good results are much more probable in good patterns and bad results are much more probable in bad patterns. To clarify, it might be better to say "good results are much less improbable in good patterns". Good results are still unlikely at our latitudes. Obviously in my neck of the woods that is even more true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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