stormtracker Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 A phase has occured between the baja vort and the one dropping down from Canada. Heights rapidly rises, but the problem is is way west and has the look of a cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Large swath of precipitation over Tx, LA, MS. H5 looks disheveled now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Sooner or later one of these vort maxes will take the right road, and do the right thing. It has happened before and can happen again. I guess. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diatae Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 It's going to cut west, whatever the hell it has bubbling up. Started off barely holding on the 0 celsius but that went away real quick. SFC map is pretty ugly...looks like a frontal passage? Obviously we're on the wrong side of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Here we go with this diving trough with tails again. This shit has gotta stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 234hr...rain up and down the coast...frontal passage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Broad "U" trof centered on a WI to IL axis. ANd a damn tail all the way from St Louis to Tijuana. SEriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Alright, I'm at 240, I've seen enough. Cold throughout the middle of the country except...east coast where people live. Front basically follows the Appalachians and obviously cold behind it..we chillin in relative warmth. Until next time...I'm out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 without blocking (nao is still positive), may just need to find a sw or clipper type system on the heels of one of these systems because there is cold air available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Meh. Time for a break I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Too bad. We had the MLK storm that ran too far west, and then tonight which is too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Randy storm is back...kinda 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 25 minutes ago, Ji said: Randy storm is back...kinda Is that the one around hr. 210? I've been too busy following my 1" storm and haven't been following this thread. Anyway, that surface low is moving fast! Atlanta to NY in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 hour ago, Ji said: Randy storm is back...kinda About the same timeframe the Euro has a OTS. Something is there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 About the same timeframe the Euro has a OTS. Something is thereEnsembles dont support gfs inland track 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 48 minutes ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, Solution Man said: About the same timeframe the Euro has a OTS. Something is there Ensembles dont support gfs inland track Saw that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 14 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Saw that Canadian also has something in that time-frame offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 At this point I wonder if I’d prefer to see things more inland lol, we keep leaving snow on the table with things trending to our SE with the exception of that Harrisburg hauler. Feels like the playbook this year has been “op runs sets a storm up off shore in med-long range, it trends in, then trends out” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 hour ago, baltosquid said: At this point I wonder if I’d prefer to see things more inland lol, we keep leaving snow on the table with things trending to our SE with the exception of that Harrisburg hauler. Feels like the playbook this year has been “op runs sets a storm up off shore in med-long range, it trends in, then trends out” Progressive northern stream is a staple here and unfortunately it has a huge bag of tricks to find ways to skip us. Geography problems are unfixable. Feb should provide some better battlegrounds from what I'm seeing. TPV intrusions at the same time more springlike shortwaves start making some moves along the southern tier. If we keep getting tall/steep uphill approaches it's prob going to be a continual problem. Always is. Get a couple broad carves and set up and move W-E oriented battleground and we can talk bigger or "easier" events. Pretty clear that a repeating current pattern isn't going to work well this year. Things aren't aligned properly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Progressive northern stream is a staple here and unfortunately it has a huge bag of tricks to find ways to skip us. Ya talking about in regards to the nina state or just in general? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ya talking about in regards to the nina state or just in general? In general. We get fast/progressive northern stream flow more than any other in winter. Enso doesn't matter other than cold enso favoring MORE of what we always get a lot of. Lol. It's why I don't get interested much with years like this except inside of 3 days. No storm is real outside of that. Especially if it's touchy (almost always is). I was certain all week my yard was weak this weekend. I no longer expect different results with these deals. I've been doing this too long to allow myself to get pulled into anything that isn't worth the time investment 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: In general. We get fast/progressive northern stream flow more than any other in winter. Enso doesn't matter other than cold enso favoring MORE of what we always get a lot of. Lol. It's why I don't get interested much with years like this except inside of 3 days. No storm is real outside of that. Especially if it's touchy (almost always is). I was certain all week my yard was weak this weekend. I no longer expect different results with these deals. I've been doing this too long to allow myself to get pulled into anything that isn't worth the time investment Dang I didn't know we had that problem in niños too...why is it then that they tend to work a bit better? And what effect does blocking have on muting our progressive tendencies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ya talking about in regards to the nina state or just in general? There are a few nice setups in progressive NS flow without blocking so I'm not saying it's a doom thing at all. You're hearing me harp on the broad trough. That's the most visible way to get into a warning storm pattern. Broad troughs and flow underneath elongates everything. Moisture streams way out in front of even weak shortwaves in the south. Get in the way of that and a 1003mb low can still drop a foot here. Long duration overunners happen here. PD2 part 1 was just that. Not apples to apples at all but sometimes the hose points at us and we snow for a day or 2. Not hot and heavy like a compact ball of energy. Just steady light/mod snow that keeps piling up. Sure would like to see a pattern set up in early Feb that can deliver that. If ens/ops lose the broad trough idea completely and go back to fast moving steep hills, I'll go quiet pretty quick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Dang I didn't know we had that problem in niños too...why is it then that they tend to work a bit better? And what effect does blocking have on muting our progressive tendencies? Blocking changes the flow. Especially where it counts. When something is blocking the flow, we get confluence overhead or height lines running W-E. We live for that. Unblocked flow is just a steep hill most times. Nothing in the way so you better be in ground zero or you get zero. Make sense? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Dang I didn't know we had that problem in niños too...why is it then that they tend to work a bit better? And what effect does blocking have on muting our progressive tendencies? Ninos often feature the pineapple connection or a stream of moisture and/or shortwaves from HI to Socal. When storms enter the country in socal it's WAAAAY different than when they enter in Seattle. That's the primary reason we like ninos. The further south a storm enters the conus, the better chance of it staying south of us. Plenty of ninos never get that though and it can happen in any enso state. When i read your posts and questions it always looks like a constant search for 1+2=3 in weather. You gotta move past that quick here. It has never and will never work that way. We've wasted ungodly good setups and gotten hit flush in some of the dumbest. Never ever expect anything to do anything in particular no matter what Eta: when I see a nice blocked pattern with a 50/50 or whatever, all it tells me that there is a real CHANCE at a big storm. Not that there will be a storm. And even if there is, a lot still has to break right to take advantage of the longwave setup. When models spit out a big blocked storm a week out, it makes sense to me. That's it. When models spit out an unblocked coastal ripper big hit a week out, it will never make enough sense to me to expect anything. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ninos often feature the pineapple connection or a stream of moisture and/or shortwaves from HI to Socal. When storms enter the country in socal it's WAAAAY different than when they enter in Seattle. That's the primary reason we like ninos. The further south a storm enters the conus, the better chance of it staying south of us. Plenty of ninos never get that though and it can happen in any enso state. When i read your posts and questions it always looks like a constant search for 1+2=3 in weather. You gotta move past that quick here. It has never and will never work that way. We've wasted ungodly good setups and gotten hit flush in some of the dumbest. Never ever expect anything to do anything in particular no matter what Chill, thanks for the wisdom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 12z Ukie is a nice hit for the entire area on Thursday. Canadian appears to be trying to push the boundary south. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 35 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ninos often feature the pineapple connection or a stream of moisture and/or shortwaves from HI to Socal. When storms enter the country in socal it's WAAAAY different than when they enter in Seattle. That's the primary reason we like ninos. The further south a storm enters the conus, the better chance of it staying south of us. Plenty of ninos never get that though and it can happen in any enso state. When i read your posts and questions it always looks like a constant search for 1+2=3 in weather. You gotta move past that quick here. It has never and will never work that way. We've wasted ungodly good setups and gotten hit flush in some of the dumbest. Never ever expect anything to do anything in particular no matter what Eta: when I see a nice blocked pattern with a 50/50 or whatever, all it tells me that there is a real CHANCE at a big storm. Not that there will be a storm. And even if there is, a lot still has to break right to take advantage of the longwave setup. When models spit out a big blocked storm a week out, it makes sense to me. That's it. When models spit out an unblocked coastal ripper big hit a week out, it will never make enough sense to me to expect anything. Listen I'm learnin', alright? Ya kinda called me out on that last year and I heard ya...just taking a bit and I'm learning with some experience I'm slowly embracing the chaos of all this It's just my nature to wanna know what gives the best CHANCE of something happening, what helps and what can get in the way...what might go right, what may go wrong...why something is happening. I'm a big WHY person. So if we can't expect anything...what good are LR discussions, then? Good patterns can mean nothing, bad patterns can mean nothing...so what's the point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 minute ago, chris21 said: 12z Ukie is a nice hit for the entire area on Thursday. Canadian appears to be trying to push the boundary south. Not sure that boundary gets pushed far enough south...and the GFS is doing nothing of the kind. This winter if the GFS ain't doin' it it ain't happenin', lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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