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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well since the first week of January...yes. But counting that, 1 for 5 for my yard (I think the 6th/7th was my heaviest at 4.5 inches--and that was a lot of fun!). You could argue 2 for 5 by Jan 2/3rd kinda fringed me with 2" but still looked nice. But the last three storms: 1 got yanked inland (but got about 2") last weekend couldn't phase at all, and then ya got this weekend's mess. 

But I think what's worn on me is not having a deep, 6"+ snow for six years. Actually, the night Jan 6/7th was the heaviest snow I'd seen in a long time. I'm just wanting to get our big hit...getting one after 6 years doesn't seem like an unreasonable desire.

It is not an unreasonable desire. Baltimore does not usually go 6 years without seeing a storm like that, so being disappointed is completely justified, so long as it doesn't become true depression or anger.

But nothing lasts forever, not even a snow drought or streak of screwjobs. We will get ours again.

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Just now, Ji said:
2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:
Very similar to the set up now trof position is there, but can it sharpen in time?

i love it...pbp for something 220 hours out. Your comfortably in the valley again

I mean, you post and believe in digital snowmaps at 384?  So why not.  the pbp ain't hard and something of note is happening.  You stoopid

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11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

If this fails again...that means having an stj in a nina does absolutely no good, smh If it happens line that again I may break something...that would be seriously messed up to have that happen TWO DANG WEEKENDS in a row!! Again...does a simple setup even exist this winter?

A lot of these storms that crush Philly to Boston but screw our area tend to happen in La Nina winters, even storms with a decent STJ involvement.

  • December 2000 (I don't recall the specifics of that setup but I know very well how it ended)
  • December 2010 Boxing Day
  • January 2018 "bomb cyclone"
  • And now January 2022

I don't have the knowledge to explain exactly why, or whether they're specifically linked to La Nina, but it keeps happening over and over again.

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Just now, Fozz said:

A lot of these storms that crush Philly to Boston but screw our area tend to happen in La Nina winters, even storms with a decent STJ involvement.

  • December 2000 (I don't recall the specifics of that setup but I know very well how it ended)
  • December 2010 Boxing Day
  • January 2018 "bomb cyclone"
  • And now January 2022

I don't have the knowledge to explain exactly why, or whether they're specifically linked to La Nina, but I'm just laying the facts here.

Now see, I caught some flack for being pessimistic about a nina...but look at the struggles last few weekends.

I'd be willing to bet that an active NS equates to more junk getting in the way of the getting phasing we need at the timing we need. All it takes is a GL low (i.e the March 2018 storm that produced all that wind) or some elongated "tail"...and there goes your timely phase. It's just a lot of random junk flying around, it looks lime.

Now...the question is, what would this weekend have looked like with a block? If we can get that 50/50 next weekend...does it make a difference? Hm...(I wish we had the thinking emoji on here, lol)

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1 hour ago, Fozz said:

A lot of these storms that crush Philly to Boston but screw our area tend to happen in La Nina winters, even storms with a decent STJ involvement.

  • December 2000 (I don't recall the specifics of that setup but I know very well how it ended)
  • December 2010 Boxing Day
  • January 2018 "bomb cyclone"
  • And now January 2022

I don't have the knowledge to explain exactly why, or whether they're specifically linked to La Nina, but it keeps happening over and over again.

December 2000 started as an Alberta clipper. Laid down a swath of 3-6” from the dakotas through Minnesota and the Midwest. It weakened as it hit the Ohio valley before transferring its energy to a new low off the coast of NC. 10-20” totals were common in E NJ and the immediate NYC metro with a 20-30” jackpot zone from NE NJ through the Hudson valley and into the Catskills. Boston only saw 4”. Dry air ate up their storm as the low sat just south of LI
 

There was a very sharp cutoff. 10-20” In central NJ, 4-8” in Philly and Delaware, 0” in Baltimore 

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