WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Just popped in to see how the February torch is coming along. Somebody check on Chuck 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 9 minutes ago, diatae said: Is this where I vote yes for starting a thread so I have more places to lurk and react? That's a really tuff question... not sure. I recommend starting a thread asking if another thread should be started. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: -pna 2024 looks like major ++++AO 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 18 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said: Give us next Saturday and then you could cancel the rest of winter. WSW criteria for absolutely everyone here. Let's do it. I’ll never understand this mentality. I want all storms shown on gfs, plus one or two surprises events, plus all the storms after that for 6 weeks. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Just popped in to see how the February torch is coming along. Careful, the medium range looked pretty awful on NWP December 27 too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, anotherman said: 2024 looks like major ++++AO That’s what my research shows 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: -pna 9 minutes ago, anotherman said: 2024 looks like major ++++AO 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s what my research shows 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That's a really tuff question... not sure. I recommend starting a thread asking if another thread should be started. Then step into the other thread, ask if another thread should be started...etc.! Like those perpetual pictures that show someone painting themselves painting a scene, which shows themselves painting the same scene, which shows...! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, mattie g said: Not sure what a DT accumulation/start time map has to do with anything, but ok? 1 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, mattie g said: Is that DT's pre-first-guess not quite first-call for next weekend?? Hahaha, 'd by @stormtracker! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 56 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: On the 12z gfs, the setup is obvious by 174. Looked like a solid winter storm on the way for the east. Big precip field as expected. So far this year, I haven't been close to as interested as I am now. Gfs may or may not have the right shortwave to grow but it doesn't matter. Give us that upper level setup, let it spin and wobble for 10-14 days, and the odds of a region wide warning event with cold temps is as good as it gets without classic blocking. With you 100%. We were discussing this in the zoom 2 nights ago then the Gfs popped out exactly the type of result we envisioned. People freaked out when the mini 2 day torch showed up because we couldn’t see past it at first to confirm it was just a temporary reshuffle and not a complete pattern breakdown. But I like this next iteration of the pac driven pattern better. We’ve been stuck on the backside of the trough for weeks and that leaves us in the precarious spot of needing major amplifications to get a storm and without blocking those are thread the needle low odds propositions. The much better way to get snow in a progressive pattern are boundary waves but those won’t work when your in the suppressive NW flow on the backside of a trough. It looks like after the inevitable cutter and reshuffle the next cycle of the pattern puts the mean trough axis just to our west. Add in another arctic cold dump and we are in a good spot for boundary waves. Cycle that look for 1-2 weeks and I’ll take my chances. Not an HECS look but on the other hand the last 10 years it seems like a cow farts and some weak wave spits out an inch of qpf. So these waves can be substantive. Very odd the pac continues to be very un Nina like other than the amplified NS. But the NS has been on roids for like 6 years now so not even sure how much we can attribute that to enso anymore. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 21 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Not sure what a DT accumulation/start time map has to do with anything, but ok? You forgot percent chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just checking in to say I’m all in on the Leaking Gut storm next weekend. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: With you 100%. We were discussing this in the zoom 2 nights ago then the Gfs popped out exactly the type of result we envisioned. People freaked out when the mini 2 day torch showed up because we couldn’t see past it at first to confirm it was just a temporary reshuffle and not a complete pattern breakdown. But I like this next iteration of the pac driven pattern better. We’ve been stuck on the backside of the trough for weeks and that leaves us in the precarious spot of needing major amplifications to get a storm and without blocking those are thread the needle low odds propositions. The much better way to get snow in a progressive pattern are boundary waves but those won’t work when your in the suppressive NW flow on the backside of a trough. It looks like after the inevitable cutter and reshuffle the next cycle of the pattern puts the mean trough axis just to our west. Add in another arctic cold dump and we are in a good spot for boundary waves. Cycle that look for 1-2 weeks and I’ll take my chances. Not an HECS look but on the other hand the last 10 years it seems like a cow farts and some weak wave spits out an inch of qpf. So these waves can be substantive. Very odd the pac continues to be very un Nina like other than the amplified NS. But the NS has been on roids for like 6 years now so not even sure how much we can attribute that to enso anymore. Good stuff man. I'm at the point in this game where the type of potential storm determines my desire to get involved. I'm 100% done wasting time on low probability stuff. If that's all there is, I just don't have it in me anymore. ROI is awful. On the flip side, I have pent up desire to watch something from longer leads. So for now, I'll monitoring ens means in the 7-10 day range literally for the first time this year. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Let me dust off the pbp for this threat on the Euro. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 It’s time 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 31 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Let me dust off the pbp for this threat on the Euro. Yay! I was hoping you’d bring back the pbp’s. Surely we’ve earned an easy-to -track storm after this dumpster fire of a week. But that’s doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 14 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Let me dust off the pbp for this threat on the Euro. Is this for this weekend or next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Anyweather said: Is this for this weekend or next weekend? This weekend is in the other thread. This is the longer range thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Go on... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leaking Gut Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Just checking in to say I’m all in on the Leaking Gut storm next weekend. I approve this message. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 consecutive similar runs for the GFS at this lead time is impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, yoda said: Go on... Wrong storm. There will be a cutter next week. After that is the threat of a wave along the arctic boundary after it sinks south. Gefs can’t agree on which wave but there are a lot of hits day 9-16 between 3 different waves. Same general setup each time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Wrong storm. There will be a cutter next week. After that is the threat of a wave along the arctic boundary after it sinks south. Gefs can’t agree on which wave but there are a lot of hits day 9-16 between 3 different waves. Same general setup each time. Euro doesn't have a shortwave like the gfs in Cali but how could it? Lol. Just give us the big bowl for 2 weeks. Shortwaves will b there for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Sorry guys. Duty called. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Doesn't have shit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Doesn't have shit Easiest PBP of your life. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Looks absolutely nothing like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Looks absolutely nothing like the GFS This is actually comforting 10 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 this new TT euro isnt going to work for me.....i had no idea it would be so delayed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts