Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
 Share

Recommended Posts

36 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Remember when this upcoming weekend storm  looked like this last weekend? I do. 

I mean, yes, but the precip field even on the good runs a week ago didn't look like that. That looks like a more classic way we all win rather than praying for a low up OBX's backside in juuuuussssttt the right spot. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Fozz said:

You talking about the storm that the GFS shows exactly 12 years after Snowmageddon?

I think it will happen.

I mean it is absolutely our prime climo for big hits. And the one thing I am liking in the long range is the PV getting  displaced over the lakes. Reminds me of 2010 in some ways. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, H2O said:

Start a thread now for next weekend

maybe that's the problem tho - perhaps we need to start the thread now.  You know, show our respect to the model and its solution as it stands now, then maybe it will show favor upon us and keep it.  Worth a shot.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

maybe that's the problem tho - perhaps we need to start the thread now.  You know, show our respect to the model and its solution as it stands now, then maybe it will show favor upon us and keep it.  Worth a shot.

People can laugh at you all they want. My life changed once I started being really really nice to wx models. In the heart nice. Can't fake it. Once I did that the MoCo deathband was reborn. People can say whatever they want but they all know my yard jacked in the burbs multiple times for no apparent reasons. Most evident with Jan 2016. Yea, keep thinking that's a coincidence. One day everyone will see the light. 

  • Like 2
  • Haha 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

People can laugh at you all they want. My life changed once I started being really really nice to wx models. In the heart nice. Can't fake it. Once I did that the MoCo deathband was reborn. People can say whatever they want but they all know my yard jacked in the burbs multiple times for no apparent reasons. Most evident with Jan 2016. Yea, keep thinking that's a coincidence. One day everyone will see the light. 

Exactly!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This is tasty. Some action in the southern stream as well. Could end up cold and dry. But I will take my chances with this look. 

gfs_z500a_namer_65.png

The look here is very close to the displaced and elongated PV , PV streamlines shown on Stratobserver. As the PV evolves over time as shown by the streamlines various weather impacts may occur at our lattitude in Feb. Intially it looks like over-running events and then morphs into potential Manitoba Mauler developers off VA. Maybe even a hybrid MillerA/B. 

All options are on the table IMHO. Of note as well is that the PNA may not go negative as quickly, also looking for a wave breaking event for the possibility for Atlantic blocking for a short window, also worth mentioning is that AO is forecast to dive back down rather sharply and abruptly. This may put into motion some winter element as well in the equation during early Feb.     

Here are a couple images from yesterdays view of the forecasted streamlines.

Also the look at 384 hours in thre last image is insane. 

gfs_nh-epvstream_0800K_20220126_f096.png.3191bb475b7cd6fa13479058c6ec84d4.pnggfs_nh-epvstream_0800K_20220126_f228.png.c4a208816db42e3faed95ff410267e83.pnggfs_nh-epvstream_0800K_20220126_f336.png.bc1b2aa39f99dcb6f94d48f40c712b93.png838491556_gfs_nh-epvstream_0800K_20220126_f384(1).png.14ac9650e99ad2f5d75fe9962703aa15.png

 

 

 

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Fozz said:

You talking about the storm that the GFS shows exactly 12 years after Snowmageddon?

I think it will happen.

Now see I kinda believed in anniversaries for this week's storm...(exactly 100 years after Knickerbocker and exactly 250 years after Washington/Jefferson). So that kinda burned me...but yet...hey why not, lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now see I kinda believed in anniversaries for this week's storm...(exactly 100 years after Knickerbocker and exactly 250 years after Wshington/Jefferson). But that kinda burned me...but yet...hey why not, lol

I have a family event planned for that Saturday so of course it will snow. 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

I mean, yes, but the precip field even on the good runs a week ago didn't look like that. That looks like a more classic way we all win rather than praying for a low up OBX's backside in juuuuussssttt the right spot. 

I feel the same. This looks more like a wall of moisture running up and over the dome of cold air - the kind of thing that can end up being pretty straightforward.

Big cutter drags the boundary through our area, fresh cold with a big-ass high pressure north of Lakes Erie and Ontario, and moisture streaming out of the Gulf as a low rides up the coast.

Not saying I think it will happen (doesn't matter what I think), but it's fraught with far fewer concerns than something like this weekend.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I feel the same. This looks more like a wall of moisture running up and over the dome of cold air - the kind of thing that can end up being pretty straightforward.

Big cutter drags the boundary through our area, fresh cold with a big-ass high pressure north of Lakes Erie and Ontario, and moisture streaming out of the Gulf as a low rides up the coast.

Not saying I think it will happen (doesn't matter what I think), but it's fraught with far fewer concerns than something like this weekend.

Hey if it still looks like that on Monday I'd be kinda psyched (but of course we'll all be looking at it before that and tell ourselves we're not paying attention, lol) Simpler is so much better

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hey if it still looks like that on Monday I'd be kinda psyched (but of course we'll all be looking at it before that and tell ourselves we're not paying attention, lol) Simpler is so much better

I'm paying attention to tomorrow-Saturday, but only as an exercise in seeing how things are playing out. I'm really not expecting anything. I'm much more interested in the next couple week, and yeah...if this is still hanging around come early next week I think we have something to actually focus in on.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I'm paying attention to tomorrow-Saturday, but only as an exercise in seeing how things are playing out. I'm really not expecting anything. I'm much more interested in the next couple week, and yeah...if this is still hanging around come early next week I think we have something to actually focus in on.

And I do wonder if we can already start paying attention to next week's cutter since we're under 7 days. That would be the first piece of the puzzle right there...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...