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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Absolutely.  As @Bob Chill mentioned and I was discussing yesterday, the northern stream trough swinging through and providing some broad lift may be enough to set a "floor" for this event of something marginally shovelable.  But I wouldn't trust this scenario giving us a major (high end advisory/low end warning level?) snow until I'm measuring it on my snowboard.  

Yes, exactly. Its an escape hatch of sorts. Most of us could possibly entirely miss the coastal and still have a decent event of cold powder. Problem is, people care so much what SNE gets that a "decent" event is a disaster regardless if the coastal does ye 'ole skip-da-malooo (like they often do and everyone knows it lol). 

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49 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I want to talk about that gorgeous overrunning event GFS has at hr336.  

Hahaha, you made me go and look at that!  Damn that is gorgeous and classic way to get a good snow here!  I know it's only an ops model at range, but that scenario has shown up a couple or so times during that approximate time frame.

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2 hours ago, DDweatherman said:

Yup, was still in Baltimore area at the time. So much fresh powder that morning in deform, about 21" where I was total. Some folks back NW towards 795 up to PSU got 2'

It was my favorite storm of all time. I'd never seen anything like it before (not counting Jan 1996 when I was 5 years old and have very faint memories). The way it exploded off the coast brought some of the best blizzard conditions I've ever seen, not to mention a snowpack of 30-36" while it was all happening.

It was hard to measure but it seemed to be around 20-21" IMBY.

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5 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Yes, exactly. Its an escape hatch of sorts. Most of us could possibly entirely miss the coastal and still have a decent event of cold powder. Problem is, people care so much what SNE gets that a "decent" event is a disaster regardless if the coastal does ye 'ole skip-da-malooo (like they often do and everyone knows it lol). 

I will be adding "ye 'ole skip-da-malooo" to my weather thesaurus.

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Well, we constantly have a west-N. Pacific trough through 15-day models for several runs now. You can even call it a +PNA, because I thought some of our best patterns like 76-77 and 77-78 had this west-based N. Pacific trough. We need to break this +PNA/+NAO, -NAO/-PNA though, otherwise it wont really snow. 

I did research that showed after record -PDO's, (Oct-Nov-Dec was the #1 lowest -PDO on record) we actually rebounded with +PNA/GOA or Alaska high for next 2 years. The extreme PNA/PDO events seem to always even/reverse to balance. I don't think that changes our SE ridge state though, which could be present through Winter 22-23 too. 

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1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Well, we constantly have a west-N. Pacific trough through 15-day models for several runs now. You can even call it a +PNA, because I thought some of our best patterns like 76-77 and 77-78 had this west-based N. Pacific trough. We need to break this +PNA/+NAO, -NAO/-PNA though, otherwise it wont really snow. 

I did research that showed after record -PDO's, (Oct-Nov-Dec was the #1 lowest -PDO on record) we actually rebounded with +PNA/GOA or Alaska high for next 2 years. The extreme PNA/PDO events seem to always even/reverse to balance. I don't think that changes our SE ridge state though, which could be present through Winter 22-23 too. 

Look you have made some odd posts this winter, but you've been hammering the -PNA and were spot on.

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This is a massive -PNA. We'll be in the 50s higher every day after this storm threat. 

2a.gif

2b.gif

I really like the 10-11 analog, although the NAO wasn't as negative. NAO really switched in early Feb, should be interesting (I have +NAO signal Feb 7-9 core/max, but we have been veering -NAO for little reason 5/7 months. 

3a.png.d73c0f78aebfdff6fe630345ae63115e.png

3c.png

anyway.. we saw this in March/April, we'll see

3d.png.429545c94f60b4970e5984b8ac644c2c.png

2011 was dry

3ee.png.c8cf4fdf4c191fff5155873878ba945a.png

2-year pattern analogs are working

6e.png.9a2fe8771dbb6c7bbf58a9ee042c8d6e.png

5e.png.a23bf5f654b01cd888d1cc5cb1e44e31.png

Feb 7, 2022, +15day model

2a.png.9db37235e9ca4180bd963e459ce76688.png

2aa.thumb.gif.0232863c64d03598f94be83d31dea8e4.gif

Record +350dm Pacific High in December > 20% #1

100_16_48_107_24.4_24_32.gif.78d6f5b8d2512ec457cafdfb7a40609b.gif

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6 straight years of this Central America cold-pattern Feb 4-8 (see 2nd model image above)

8a.gif.a41ea0b88a70cc00e85c226a1be5bc6b.gif

I used that 6-year consistency to say we would have a -NAO Christmas this year back in November

compday.BsUtSemPqP.gif.1bb03c55678ea1dcaec705186519006b.gif

compday.GXxDmvIu0W.gif.d74fe14f1f7fe394797d0f3086715cc1.gif

 

8 days later -AAM peaks, La Nina condition-pattern, (-AAM is -NAtlantic, +NPacific) +8 days is Feb 12-16, 2022

8aa.gif.9e7393dccf66033d33b7d64a2e941976.gif

These AAM's spin and stuff to effect the pattern for a long time, this is last week of February ^+10days, Feb 22-26

8aa.gif.7570d589848e2fe1c741d50a20b79fd5.gif

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