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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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The northern stream interaction at our latitude is really grabbing some consensus. This can be a blessing and a curse. In this case prob a blessing because the volatile track and typical outcome with these deals. Northern stream can add lift overhead that can wring out the atmophsere in a way that gives us an ok event even if the big show goes climo on us. Without it, the sharp gradient on the edge is near certain. With it, it changes quite a bit of what is possible. The curse is the dead zone in between. But if the dead zone would be there without the northern stream, it's still a blessing. 

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21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Exactly.  HAVE to have reasonable wiggle room on like Thursday's 12z runs if not later.  I'm as encouraged as anyone that there's been a big west shift on the progs and it looks like we're in the game.  But damn, "La Nina unblocked Miller B" is just a freaking giant klaxon alarm to keep expectations at "partly cloudy".  

So is the possibility of this being more of a hybrid Miller A/B off the table, or?

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8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The northern stream interaction at our latitude is really grabbing some consensus. This can be a blessing and a curse. In this case prob a blessing because the volatile track and typical outcome with these deals. Northern stream can add lift overhead that can wring out the atmophsere in a way that gives us an ok event even if the big show goes climo on us. Without it, the sharp gradient on the edge is near certain. With it, it changes quite a bit of what is possible. The curse is the dead zone in between. But if the dead zone would be there without the northern stream, it's still a blessing. 

Changes it in way? Pray tell of what possibilities could be there with it :lol:

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So is the possibility of this being more of a hybrid Miller A/B off the table, or?

It maybe has some hybrid aspect because of the southern stream involvement.  But I think it leans more toward the Miller B side than Miller A because the surface low really only develops offshore once the 500mb energy arrives.  

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

It maybe has some hybrid aspect because of the southern stream involvement.  But I think it leans more toward the Miller B side than Miller A because the surface low really only develops offshore once the 500mb energy arrives.  

Very nerve wracking set up. Rug could be pulled right at gametime. 

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

2-4 or 3-6ish if it is strong enough. In all of Miller B history that is where we out here to the NW will get our snow from. Think the seond 2010 storm. Places to the North and East got the goods. We got 3-6 of fluff out here. 

Didn't realize that was a Miller B.  We got around 10" in Fairfax, but I remember that Baltimore got dumped on.  

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1 minute ago, HighStakes said:

Very nerve wracking set up. Rug could be pulled right at gametime. 

Absolutely.  As @Bob Chill mentioned and I was discussing yesterday, the northern stream trough swinging through and providing some broad lift may be enough to set a "floor" for this event of something marginally shovelable.  But I wouldn't trust this scenario giving us a major (high end advisory/low end warning level?) snow until I'm measuring it on my snowboard.  

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8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

2-4 or 3-6ish if it is strong enough. In all of Miller B history that is where we out here to the NW will get our snow from. Think the seond 2010 storm. Places to the North and East got the goods. We got 3-6 of fluff out here. 

 

7 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

Didn't realize that was a Miller B.  We got around 10" in Fairfax, but I remember that Baltimore got dumped on.  

I was getting ready to say...Baltimore must've been part of the "East"...because we ended up with like 19" (and that was with a period of mixing, lol)

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1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Yup, was still in Baltimore area at the time. So much fresh powder that morning in deform, about 21" where I was total. Some folks back NW towards 795 up to PSU got 2'

It was more like 30 -32 here. 12 inches with the first round Tuesday p.m. then 20 plus early Wednesday morning until it shut off 10 p.m. Wednesday night.

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3 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

It was more like 30 -32 here. 12 inches with the first round Tuesday p.m. then 20 plus early Wednesday morning until it shut off 10 p.m. Wednesday night.

It snowed ALL day Wednesday, especially NW. Ridiculous conditions with those rates/ratios and the winds/drifts. Similar severity to what I just experience this past weekend in McHenry. 

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