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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

IDGAFF about New York City. I don’t live there

Just observing! Got a friend up there who loves a good snow day so I’d like to be able to give him good news if it stays that way. And I’m hoping that jackpot keeps trending to us. Though verbatim I ride near the mix line so I’m quite happy with that implication…

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Just now, baltosquid said:

Just observing! Got a friend up there who loves a good snow day so I’d like to be able to give him good news if it stays that way. And I’m hoping that jackpot keeps trending to us. Though verbatim I ride near the mix line so I’m quite happy with that implication…

I’m fine if they get snow. Really. But it isn’t my focus lol

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10 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Yep.  3-5” seems pretty good considering not too long ago this was going out to sea.  

If the metro corridor gets ANY snow from an unblocked La Nina Miller B storm, we get down on our knees and say "Thank you Jesus may I have another!"

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17 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yes, this actually is better at the surface than 6z.  @psuhoffman, explain this shit!  Low is further east, but precip gets thrown back further west

Some of that is just run to run noise. Remember the precip is probably the least accurate thing on models. At range you’re be better off forecasting without even looking at it most of the time and just using experience to fill in what the surface should look like. 
 

If I had to guess why there is a slightly more expansive western precip field here ifs because that little NS impulse in front is weaker than 6z and so the STJ wave has less interference initially in transporting moisture northward. 

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37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s weaker with the SW coming through MT at 60. I don’t like that. What started the improvements last night 0z was that coming in stronger and it continued through 6z. This run is markedly weaker. 
 

maybe it won’t mean much but i don’t like that early on. 

Don’t listen to this guy he obviously has no idea what he’s talking about. 

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