Ji Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 JB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 12 minutes ago, Ji said: 20 minutes ago, CAPE said: It was just a general post and not directed at you lol. Just having a little fun with those that seem to think operational models have it figured out 6 days out. Like I said yesterday, we get NS energy phasing in sooner this could end up a rain/snow deal for the coast and better inland. Still plenty of time. The ultimate outcome is unknown. Without 50 50 low and-nao....ive seen alot of east stuff trend west in our location...usually to screw us lol Absolutely. I kinda like where this is on the means right now for my location, but it is still evolving. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Looking at the ensembles 12z should really improve. Hopefully we can get a model lock like the last rainstorm we got today or tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: Looking at the ensembles 12z should really improve. Hopefully we can get a model lock like the last rainstorm we got today or tomorrow The ensembles are not run using the same backend stuff as the GFSOP - not to mention they *can* but do not necessarily indicate a trend for future OP runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 EPS continues to improve at hour 120. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The ensembles are not run using the same backend stuff as the GFSOP - not to mention they *can* but do not necessarily indicate a trend for future OP runs. I've seen most of the time if they make a change the OP tends to follow the trend. We shall see soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 JB?Yap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 It would look like the 06z EPS came west some more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 @psuhoffman made mention of this general orientation and currently things are falling into place with an incredible N to S dive of energy. Still a balancing act towards coastal hugger if too ampliufied to the other extreme of a miss wide right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Closer. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 yeah... that some big changes at h5 between 06z EPS at 120 and 00z EPS at 126 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, yoda said: yeah... that some big changes at h5 between 06z EPS at 120 and 00z EPS at 126 lol Pretty cool time series. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Quick glance at the 06z EPS snow maps through 144 (reminder, there are 50 members): 17 give DCA at least 2" 9 give DCA at least 6" 6 give DCA at least 10" 1 mega hit approaching 2 feet 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 Maps with no comparison aren’t all that useful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Maps with no comparison aren’t all that useful. I was trying not to have like 6 huge images in one post if you are talking about mine. Give me a minute and I will rectify that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, yoda said: I was trying not to have like 6 huge images in one post if you are talking about mine. Give me a minute and I will rectify that Thanks so much Yoda. Didn’t mean for my post to sound harsh. Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Thanks so much Yoda. Didn’t mean for my post to sound harsh. Sorry You're good Don't worry about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 06z 114 vs 00z 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 06z 120 vs 00z 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Still way too east for us 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 18 minutes ago, frd said: Pretty cool time series. 7 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 06z 126 vs 00z 132 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: 19 minutes ago, yoda said: Still way too east for us Might keep trending West, as well as several intense members out there in terms of pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Still plenty of time to pull this thing further back west. Bernie Rayno had a Twitter live this morning where he was pretty confident about this being a hit. Whether it gets as far south as this sub is an open question. Could be NJ north or could come all the way down. But he was very strong about this not being OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestPaLion Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: That 06z GFS was a MASSIVE step in the right direction. If you go to pivotal and look at the model trend for the 2PVU Pressure, it is very close to what happened on that magical 18z Saturday run. The shifts are stark, there is no denying it. Can someone please explain the usefulness of the 2PVU maps? I feel as if just recently I’ve noticed them referenced more on the boards. Do you look at them as another way to view the vorticity, similar to looking at the h5 vorts? I was trying to read a little more here, but this appears to be a slightly different topic. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_int/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 27 minutes ago, CAPE said: Closer. I do like how we seem to have plenty of precip now to the left of the slp into the cold sector. The low doesn't need to be right along the coast....decent distance off the coast could actually work out for many of us if this is right. I remember when this first began getting modeled it was bone dry originally to the left of the low. Good signs all around last 18 hrs or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I do like how we seem to have plenty of precip now to the left of the slp into the cold sector. The low doesn't need to be right along the coast....decent distance off the coast could actually work out for many of us if this is right. I remember when this first began getting modeled it was bone dry originally to the left of the low. Good signs all around last 18 hrs or so. While that would probably cut down on the snow totals IMBY, honestly it would be nice to see the entire sub not have to worry about mixing. Just steer that thing in a little bit more and wrap it up a little tighter... just enough to keep rain off the Delmarva and that would be ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 In motion 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts