stormtracker Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Euro much better vs 12..but still developing low in the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Euro probably on drugs again but only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Euro follows the trends tonight, but just offshore it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Yup...right again . just not so wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 There are definitely some good trends tonight that makes most of the negative day yesterday a wash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yup...right again . just not so wide It was a significant improvement. Rome wasn’t built in a day. 0z was a good run. Now we need to build on it and not slide backwards at 12z. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Yup...right again . just not so wide It's definitely closer than prior runs, which I think is a positive step with still some time left to mediate the smaller shifts into something more respectable. One thing I do like is the prospects of a little snowfall prior to the SLP generation with a bit of a diffluent signature prior to the mean trough pivoting eastward. I think that could still give a touch of snow to the area regardless of the coastal outcome. An earlier neutral/neg tilt would only enhance the pre-game component. Something to monitor in the grand scheme of it all. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It was a significant improvement. Rome wasn’t built in a day. 0z was a good run. Now we need to build on it and not slide backwards at 12z. 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: There are definitely some good trends tonight that makes most of the negative day yesterday a wash. agreed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: agreed 947mb though? Do we really want it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Euro finally got on board with the bomb solution. Sub 950 off New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It was a significant improvement. Rome wasn’t built in a day. 0z was a good run. Now we need to build on it and not slide backwards at 12z. You'd hope that getting positive improvements on all three globals would be a good sign for tomorrow...we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 12 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: Vice-Regent posting though? Do we really want it? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the phasing is as clear as day on a five day mean FWIW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Ridge is a little bit wider and stronger out west on the 06z ICON at 114 compared to 00z at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 19 minutes ago, yoda said: If the ICON was right in that presentation, you'd need to go on Anthem of the Seas to see any snow. That ridge is way too far east west of the Continental Divide 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Nice synopsis by Mount Holly this morning- In the long term, all eyes are on the end of the week as a potential storm takes shape off the US East Coast. The Arctic high pressure from midweek remains in control through Thursday. From there, the range of possible outcomes diverges wildly. With strong ridging present in the West, a deep trough will dig into the Southeast, with a strong shortwave embedded within the base. This trough will gradually tilt from positive to neutral or negative as it moves towards the Southeast coast. This will spur offshore cyclogenesis, with its strength and placement dependent on how fast the trough begins to tilt negative. In addition, the developing storm appears likely to eventually phase with a northern stream shortwave dropping out of Canada, which would yield further intensification as it moves north or northeast. The track of this developing low will then determine potential impacts for the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. Based on the potent nature of the shortwaves involved and with unusually strong baroclinicity likely to be present, this has the potential to be a strong storm. Certainly cannot ignore the number of various ensemble system members and occasional deterministic runs showing sub-970mb cyclones along or within striking distance of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. At this early stage, a multi- cycle consensus of model guidance favors a glancing blow for our region, with potentially greater impacts towards New England or Atlantic Canada. However, this system does have some of the hallmarks of previous high impact storms where medium range models displayed a right of track (ROT) bias. And ensemble spread has generally been favoring the left side of the means and deterministic runs. So we are definitely not out of the woods, but we also have several days to watch this, and it will likely be some time before we can definitively say whether there will be any impacts locally. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 06z gfs is nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 06z GFS h5 looks a bit better and further west at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Major differences show up at h5 06z 132 compared to 00z 138 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Snow moving in at 117, storm winding up….moving in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Game on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Well, no miss to the right this time, lol Looks closer to the 00z CMC to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Well, no miss to the right this time, lol Looks closer to the 00z to me! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 The folks around Winchester who were ready to bail are now saying 'this baby is right where we want it'. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 That 06z GFS was a MASSIVE step in the right direction. If you go to pivotal and look at the model trend for the 2PVU Pressure, it is very close to what happened on that magical 18z Saturday run. The shifts are stark, there is no denying it. 8 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Whoops! I meant to say it looked closer to the 00z CMC (not GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: The folks around Winchester who were ready to bail are now saying 'this baby is right where we want it'. Dogfish Head Roadtrip this weekend? Also, guess who just happens to be coming home Jan 27th until Feb 5th 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: That 06z GFS was a MASSIVE step in the right direction. If you go to pivotal and look at the model trend for the 2PVU Pressure, it is very close to what happened on that magical 18z Saturday run. The shifts are stark, there is no denying it. You could see the Major changes coming by 96 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: That 06z GFS was a MASSIVE step in the right direction. If you go to pivotal and look at the model trend for the 2PVU Pressure, it is very close to what happened on that magical 18z Saturday run. The shifts are stark, there is no denying it. Much prognostications and gnashing of teeth this week…it’s on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts