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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

@stormtracker this feature isn’t doing us any favors. It’s preventing the key SW behind it from amplifying by flattening the flow some right in front. Simply it’s not enough wave spacing.
79E8D0B0-6589-42DB-B093-DB7FA84724A2.thumb.jpeg.5400d55288c9c267255c8c8eb2bf08ae.jpeg

We’re now at a range it’s safe to say that’s real but the timing can adjust. Weaker and faster with that feature is better imo. Slower and stronger with the next SW is better.  Increase the spacing between those SWs would help.  

Kill it.   Kill it with fire.

Seriously though, there's a lot of hoops we gotta jump through.

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The only way that would work would take a crazy ridiculous capture and tuck scenario off the SE coast that’s VERY rare.  The simpler path, and we do better with simple, is for the energy not to split and have the NS just phase with the further west stj wave in the gulf. Then we don’t need as radical a trough amplification to win. 
It worked yesterday at 18zfda745307297744865d7dee4f234f305.jpg
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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@stormtracker this feature isn’t doing us any favors. It’s preventing the key SW behind it from amplifying by flattening the flow some right in front. Simply it’s not enough wave spacing.
79E8D0B0-6589-42DB-B093-DB7FA84724A2.thumb.jpeg.5400d55288c9c267255c8c8eb2bf08ae.jpeg

We’re now at a range it’s safe to say that’s real but the timing can adjust. Weaker and faster with that feature is better imo. Slower and stronger with the next SW is better.  Increase the spacing between those SWs would help.  

That’s the part I said needed to get stuck in the four corners 

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

It worked yesterday at 18zfda745307297744865d7dee4f234f305.jpg

It left some energy behind but the NS still dig far enough west to initiate cyclogenesis with that wave in the gulf. And then it still took one of the most ridiculous bomb/capture/tuck scenarios I’ve ever seen and we were still on the western fringe. You really want to roll that way?  You know how close that was (basically a slightly less extreme capture tuck) from an end result identical to a certain Nina storm we don’t even mention around here!  We really want a storm coming at us from the SW or SSW. If we need something to be pulled in from our east we’re in bad shape. That’s a losing scenario 99% of the time. 

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

So GFS looks a bit better at 90  at h5.   Not jump out at you better, but you can def tell the flow out front is better

the sw in the sw is actually ahead of the Sw diving in now instead of behind it. probably wont make a difference but any change is good lol

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