stormtracker Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Man, I just saw the hidden posts. We need snow. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: How bout people just stop acting like clowns so we don’t need her to waste her time cleaning up our mess I was busy when all of that happened. I would have gotten it. But it's all good now. Let's focus on our impending fail. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Seems like quite a bit of modeling chaos. IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Just off the top of my head BWI had 11.5” in Feb 2014 in a +AO/NAO storm. March 93 was a +AO/NAO. There is probably a bigger storm if I look through the records but I’m not home. But I said I don’t expect a hecs. Said that’s unlikely without blocking multiple times in the last couple weeks. But I can think of numerous examples of 4-8 or 6-12” storms in our area in a EPO/PNA driven pattern with no high lat help. If anyone is expecting a hecs then I agree with you but I don’t think that’s what’s going on. I bet 90% here would take a 4-8” storm. Didn't realize that about 2/14. That was a heck of a storm for people, especially up your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 18z EPS was actually an improvement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 WB EPS 18Z v. 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I was busy when all of that happened. I would have gotten it. But it's all good now. Let's focus on our impending fail. Your efforts are always appreciated, it’s just a shame they’re needed so frequently because some people can’t act grown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Eps? Better. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 18z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, losetoa6 said: Real nice shift I will say, that's much nicer than anything I've seen to this point. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 EPS made a significant jump towards a more amped solution. PNA ridging better, leading to more favorable momentum of the NS piece as well as a slower, deeper initial trough 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 10 minutes ago, frd said: 18z Can you describe that crayon circle map? I’ve never understood that one for the life of me. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I actually liked seeing a couple super tucked members in the mix . Makes me think its possible for some action even for us NW crew . Low over Raleigh or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Low over Raleigh or bust Since I’ll be in McHenry, I approve of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 The WB 18Z Control shows what the 18Z EURO would have likely shown if it had gone out 6 days. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Let's bring it home . Now yesterday's 18z Eps was also a nice shift until 0z lol ....hopefully 2nd is a charm ( trend) I’m with ya but I’m just having a hard time seeing this working here without a major change around the 96 hour mark, +/- 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I’d love to see the h5 progression that produced 31 and 46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: The Gefs h5 individuals i posted earlier. Some nice setups in the mix. Yeah saw those but I’d like to see from 96-120 step by step. Really not sure how it did it. Maybe a phase in the center of the country? String consolidated ss low? Just can’t figure how this can work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 I’d love to see the h5 progression that produced 31 and 46You ll see it at 00z gfs 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 hour ago, DDweatherman said: @Rvarookie coming back from dinner to read the thread, it was nice seeing your posts disappear, and I suspect we won’t be seeing many new ones from you. Cheers buddy I self-moderated my posts to save Mappy work and be respectful of the thread. Hope you enjoyed dinner man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 27 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m with ya but I’m just having a hard time seeing this working here without a major change around the 96 hour mark, +/- 12 hours There are 3 synoptic scenarios showing up. 1) the NS doesn’t dive in far enough SW to phase with the STJ at all and just becomes a late development NS miller b. That was the favored progression on guidance 24-48 hours ago. 2) the NS digs further west but leaves some energy behind then actually has a messy phase with a weaker stj wave further east off the SE coast. That’s the current favored setup and that still won’t work. 3) this has only shown up on a few runs but it’s a perfectly reasonable possibility. The NS digs further SW but doesn’t elongate and split such that the phase happens with the stj wave In the gulf not the one off the SE coast. That’s what we need. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There are 3 synoptic scenarios showing up. 1) the NS doesn’t dive in far enough SW to phase with the STJ at all and just becomes a late development NS miller b. That was the favored progression on guidance 24-48 hours ago. 2) the NS digs further west but leaves some energy behind then actually has a messy phase with a weaker stj wave further east off the SE coast. That’s the current favored setup and that still won’t work. 3) this has only shown up on a few runs but it’s a perfectly reasonable possibility. The NS digs further SW but doesn’t elongate and split such that the phase happens with the stj wave In the gulf not the one off the SE coast. That’s what we need. 3 please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 KC vs BUF is crazy….back to weather 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 I’m a little worried we’re just tracking Boston’s snowstorm but the 18z ensembles left the door open a crack for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Low over Raleigh or bust Shut up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There are 3 synoptic scenarios showing up. 1) the NS doesn’t dive in far enough SW to phase with the STJ at all and just becomes a late development NS miller b. That was the favored progression on guidance 24-48 hours ago. 2) the NS digs further west but leaves some energy behind then actually has a messy phase with a weaker stj wave further east off the SE coast. That’s the current favored setup and that still won’t work. 3) this has only shown up on a few runs but it’s a perfectly reasonable possibility. The NS digs further SW but doesn’t elongate and split such that the phase happens with the stj wave In the gulf not the one off the SE coast. That’s what we need. Thanks for this. I had a general idea of what we needed, but this adds to it. Every time I see the "stretchy" (elongated) trough, I hate it. As soon as I see it, I know things prob won't go well for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Thanks for this. I had a general idea of what we needed, but this adds to it. Every time I see the "stretchy" (elongated) trough, I hate it. As soon as I see it, I know things prob won't go well for us. The only way that would work would take a crazy ridiculous capture and tuck scenario off the SE coast that’s VERY rare. The simpler path, and we do better with simple, is for the energy not to split and have the NS just phase with the further west stj wave in the gulf. Then we don’t need as radical a trough amplification to win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 17 minutes ago, Solution Man said: KC vs BUF is crazy….back to weather That was legendary. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 16 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Shut up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 @stormtracker this feature isn’t doing us any favors. It’s preventing the key SW behind it from amplifying by flattening the flow some right in front. Simply it’s not enough wave spacing. We’re now at a range it’s safe to say that’s real but the timing can adjust. Weaker and faster with that feature is better imo. Slower and stronger with the next SW is better. Increase the spacing between those SWs would help. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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