WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2022 Author Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: What is it with the SE weenies the past few days. They see a snowflake and lose their shit all of the sudden. Isn't he from Richmond. We don't claim there. He's all you. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 This Colorado talk is making me crave powder again. Took my bike out for a test ride today…think it’s doable in powder (ice is a no go). Long story short, I’ll take a 2-4” clipper…wouldn’t surprise me if this upcoming pattern finds a way to produce a minor event, regardless of a mecs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 I don't see how this storm comes west if the southern stream stays behind. It's pretty much a done deal except for eastern New England if that happens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 41 minutes ago, osfan24 said: This. The teleconnections don't line up. I'm not really even sure why people have been excited by this period. Sure, we have a solid PNA and EPO, but the AO and NAO are not cooperating at all. AO is so important. We get snow in "flawed" patterns plenty of times. I have probably made more posts than anyone about the issues with this pattern, but the guidance also has problems with resolving all the subtle interactions and timing among the key features in an amped pattern with progressive flow at range. What they are depicting now is a simulation of the outcome, with some degree of uncertainty. I would give it until Tuesday at least. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twilly05 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You really are digging yourself a hole I just come here for weather updates. If I wanted the rest of this, I can just go down to my local Walmart/Kmart. smh nonsense 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Some act like it’s easy for us get a snowstorm without blocking. Then you act like it’s impossible. It’s somewhere in between. A -epo positive NAO Nina pattern can be dry. But we do sometimes get lucky. As the pattern retrogrades this was the best window for amplification near us. Doesn’t make it high probability but the best we had. Overall I thought our best opportunity was last weekend had that not closed off way too early. After that I thought one of these west to east waves would get us but I get we’re all spaced too close abs weak and nothing could activate the baroclinic boundary. This is the best shot we have left before the pattern shifts. Too early to know what our chances will be after the reshuffle. Sure, it could snow. My point was never that it's not going to snow, but I'm also (and I'm assuming most people freaking out over huge snowfall totals on the snow maps) aren't looking for a few inches. We can fluke into some snow in completely garbage patterns. But a big snow? Can anyone give me Baltimore's biggest snowstorm with a positive AO and NAO? What is it? 6 inches maybe? I just see a lot of people getting excited about the big coastal idea and then getting depressed when it's not showing up and my only point is that teleconnections tell us this would be the first time we would get a big hit with the AO and NAO not on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 6 minutes ago, Twilly05 said: I just come here for weather updates. If I wanted the rest of this, I can just go down to my local Walmart/Kmart. smh nonsense K-mart? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: K-mart? Damn bro….A n P too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 This dude needs to be banned. Total unprovoked attack on someone. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Sure, it could snow. My point was never that it's not going to snow, but I'm also (and I'm assuming most people freaking out over huge snowfall totals on the snow maps) aren't looking for a few inches. We can fluke into some snow in completely garbage patterns. But a big snow? Can anyone give me Baltimore's biggest snowstorm with a positive AO and NAO? What is it? 6 inches maybe? I just see a lot of people getting excited about the big coastal idea and then getting depressed when it's not showing up and my only point is that teleconnections tell us this would be the first time we would get a big hit with the AO and NAO not on our side. Who cares if some get depressed. Goes with the territory. Unrealistic expectations over a model run more than five days out has been consistently explained and cautioned against by the mets in this forum. Time to buck up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mx3gsr92 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: 18z WB GEFS eastern suburbs see a glimmer of hope. Only one good hit for everyone 10 of those show snow for NE NC/SE VA. . I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 10 of those show snow for NE NC/SE VA. . I'll take it! NE NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 10 minutes ago, mx3gsr92 said: 10 of those show snow for NE NC/SE VA. . I'll take it! Keep us posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mx3gsr92 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, anotherman said: NE NC? Yup. Those folks ended up with two years worth of snowfall in one day yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, mx3gsr92 said: Yup. Those folks ended up with two years worth of snowfall in one day yesterday. Good. That’s enough lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Yup. Those folks ended up with two years worth of snowfall in one day yesterday. How does that have anything to do with most who post here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mx3gsr92 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 7 minutes ago, anotherman said: How does that have anything to do with most who post here? It doesn't but he asked so I was answering. Most is not all though. Have a great night and good luck with snow this weekend! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Mods need to send rvarookie to another weather board where they can share their *expertise. Totally unacceptable. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 It really is NOT this hard to stay civil and on-topic on this forum. No offense to the vast majority of you - but I've seen 1st graders stay on topic better than you guys. Yes - it sucks that snow isn't as prolific in this region as others...if it bothers you that much you may want to find a new hobby. I come to the forums to read weather info - not watch a bunch of petulant children fight. Every freaking year it's the same crap. Get over yourselves. Practice your netiquette and if you can't GTFO. If only it were the same way it is during the summer for severe season - lighthearted, great learning opportunities, legit weather discussion. 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm anxiously awaiting Susan Collins post about concerns Very serious concerns. Deeply , deeply troubling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 Eps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 @Rvarookie coming back from dinner to read the thread, it was nice seeing your posts disappear, and I suspect we won’t be seeing many new ones from you. Cheers buddy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Euro must have been scintillating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 58 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Sure, it could snow. My point was never that it's not going to snow, but I'm also (and I'm assuming most people freaking out over huge snowfall totals on the snow maps) aren't looking for a few inches. We can fluke into some snow in completely garbage patterns. But a big snow? Can anyone give me Baltimore's biggest snowstorm with a positive AO and NAO? What is it? 6 inches maybe? I just see a lot of people getting excited about the big coastal idea and then getting depressed when it's not showing up and my only point is that teleconnections tell us this would be the first time we would get a big hit with the AO and NAO not on our side. Just off the top of my head BWI had 11.5” in Feb 2014 in a +AO/NAO storm. March 93 was a +AO/NAO. There is probably a bigger storm if I look through the records but I’m not home. But I said I don’t expect a hecs. Said that’s unlikely without blocking multiple times in the last couple weeks. But I can think of numerous examples of 4-8 or 6-12” storms in our area in a EPO/PNA driven pattern with no high lat help. If anyone is expecting a hecs then I agree with you but I don’t think that’s what’s going on. I bet 90% here would take a 4-8” storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, psuhoffman said: Just off the top of my head BWI had 11.5” in Feb 2014 in a +AO/NAO storm. March 93 was a +AO/NAO. There is probably a bigger storm if I look through the records but I’m not home. But I said I don’t expect a hecs. Said that’s unlikely without blocking multiple times in the last couple weeks. But I can think of numerous examples of 4-8 or 6-12” storms in our area in a EPO/PNA driven pattern with no high lat help. If anyone is expecting a hecs then I agree with you but I don’t think that’s what’s going on. I bet 90% here would take a 4-8” storm. Hell I’d take 2-4” and love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: Full of salt Nope. Beet Brine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Can’t believe I’m saying this but send in the Map-Kren. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said: I think too many people are stuck in the “it’s still x number of days away as long as there is potential….” while not seeing the reality that climo and reading between the lines of psu; that this isn’t a great pattern; and it’s a thread the needle/long shot at best. What a dumb post. We are saying it's X number of days away because models change every 6 hours and it's basically time for changes. We see the reality and even discussed it in the thread, but I guess you just arrived with this hot take and couldn't wait to read up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said: Can’t believe I’m saying this but send in the Map-Kren . How bout people just stop acting like clowns so we don’t need her to waste her time cleaning up our mess 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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