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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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This Colorado talk is making me crave powder again. Took my bike out for a test ride today…think it’s doable in powder (ice is a no go). Long story short, I’ll take a 2-4” clipper…wouldn’t surprise me if this upcoming pattern finds a way to produce a minor event, regardless of a mecs.

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41 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

This. The teleconnections don't line up. I'm not really even sure why people have been excited by this period. Sure, we have a solid PNA and EPO, but the AO and NAO are not cooperating at all. AO is so important.

We get snow in "flawed" patterns plenty of times. I have probably made more posts than anyone about the issues with this pattern, but the guidance also has problems with resolving all the subtle interactions and timing among the key features in an amped pattern with progressive flow at range. What they are depicting now is a simulation of the outcome, with some degree of uncertainty. I would give it until Tuesday at least.

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24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Some act like it’s easy for us get a snowstorm without blocking. Then you act like it’s impossible. It’s somewhere in between. A -epo positive NAO Nina pattern can be dry. But we do sometimes get lucky.  As the pattern retrogrades this was the best window for amplification near us.  Doesn’t make it high probability but the best we had. Overall I thought our best opportunity was last weekend had that not closed off way too early. After that I thought one of these west to east waves would get us but I get we’re all spaced too close abs weak and nothing could activate the baroclinic boundary.  This is the best shot we have left before the pattern shifts.  Too early to know what our chances will be after the reshuffle. 

Sure, it could snow. My point was never that it's not going to snow, but I'm also (and I'm assuming most people freaking out over huge snowfall totals on the snow maps) aren't looking for a few inches. We can fluke into some snow in completely garbage patterns. But a big snow? Can anyone give me Baltimore's biggest snowstorm with a positive AO and NAO? What is it? 6 inches maybe?

I just see a lot of people getting excited about the big coastal idea and then getting depressed when it's not showing up and my only point is that teleconnections tell us this would be the first time we would get a big hit with the AO and NAO not on our side.

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5 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Sure, it could snow. My point was never that it's not going to snow, but I'm also (and I'm assuming most people freaking out over huge snowfall totals on the snow maps) aren't looking for a few inches. We can fluke into some snow in completely garbage patterns. But a big snow? Can anyone give me Baltimore's biggest snowstorm with a positive AO and NAO? What is it? 6 inches maybe?

I just see a lot of people getting excited about the big coastal idea and then getting depressed when it's not showing up and my only point is that teleconnections tell us this would be the first time we would get a big hit with the AO and NAO not on our side.

Who cares if some get depressed. Goes with the territory. Unrealistic expectations over a model run more than five days out has been consistently explained and cautioned against by the mets in this forum. Time to buck up.

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It really is NOT this hard to stay civil and on-topic on this forum. No offense to the vast majority of you - but I've seen 1st graders stay on topic better than you guys. Yes - it sucks that snow isn't as prolific in this region as others...if it bothers you that much you may want to find a new hobby. 

I come to the forums to read weather info - not watch a bunch of petulant children fight. Every freaking year it's the same crap. Get over yourselves. Practice your netiquette and if you can't GTFO.

If only it were the same way it is during the summer for severe season - lighthearted, great learning opportunities, legit weather discussion. 

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58 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Sure, it could snow. My point was never that it's not going to snow, but I'm also (and I'm assuming most people freaking out over huge snowfall totals on the snow maps) aren't looking for a few inches. We can fluke into some snow in completely garbage patterns. But a big snow? Can anyone give me Baltimore's biggest snowstorm with a positive AO and NAO? What is it? 6 inches maybe?

I just see a lot of people getting excited about the big coastal idea and then getting depressed when it's not showing up and my only point is that teleconnections tell us this would be the first time we would get a big hit with the AO and NAO not on our side.

Just off the top of my head BWI had 11.5” in Feb 2014 in a +AO/NAO storm.  March 93 was a +AO/NAO. There is probably a bigger storm if I look through the records but I’m not home. 
 

But I said I don’t expect a hecs. Said that’s unlikely without blocking multiple times in the last couple weeks. But I can think of numerous examples of 4-8 or 6-12” storms in our area in a EPO/PNA driven pattern with no high lat help.  If anyone is expecting a hecs then I agree with you but I don’t think that’s what’s going on. I bet 90% here would take a 4-8” storm. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Just off the top of my head BWI had 11.5” in Feb 2014 in a +AO/NAO storm.  March 93 was a +AO/NAO. There is probably a bigger storm if I look through the records but I’m not home. 
 

But I said I don’t expect a hecs. Said that’s unlikely without blocking multiple times in the last couple weeks. But I can think of numerous examples of 4-8 or 6-12” storms in our area in a EPO/PNA driven pattern with no high lat help.  If anyone is expecting a hecs then I agree with you but I don’t think that’s what’s going on. I bet 90% here would take a 4-8” storm. 

Hell I’d take 2-4” and love it

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2 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I think too many people are stuck in the “it’s still x number of days away as long as there is potential….”

while not seeing the reality that climo and reading between the lines of psu; that this isn’t a great pattern; and it’s a thread the needle/long shot at best. 

What a dumb post.   We are saying it's X number of days away because models change every 6 hours and it's basically time for changes.   We see the reality and even discussed it in the thread, but I guess you just arrived with this hot take and couldn't wait to read up.  

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