Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I want to be in Utah. Alta kicks ass Even after 7 seasons in CO, my top 2 days ever skiing were both at Alta. One inbounds and one out. Colorado's snow stays in much better condition in between storm cycles but skiing at Alta during a Wasatch storm cycle is prob one of the best places in the world rip. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 GEFS is significantly more amplified. toss the OP 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 17 minutes ago, Ji said: It shouldn't be this hard. Precipitate when its cold This is way more typical of a epo driven pattern with no blocking than 2014 & 2015. Those years might have falsely convinced some it’s easier to get snow absent blocking than it really is. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Best Gefs look yet Might have been one other run that looked about the same. But at this juncture, this is a good sign. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Said it before, but I think we want to root for some snow with the upper air trough ala what the 18z icon shows. All of that is on the table thankfully. We don't really know what each piece will look like yet (miss or not). I'll only believe my yard is in the game for a nearly due north tracking, unblocked, and amplified coastal is after I shovel. These setups can be 99% perfect but then a random snow goose flying through at the wrong time rips an average at best goose fart and knocks the storm east of Bermuda. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 I've definitely seen worse.. it's interesting that the ensembles are once again diverging from the OP at this range, much like last week's storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2022 Author Share Posted January 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Last three runs of GEFS, MSLP All I see there is a clustering as we get closer. None of those would produce snow for most of our forum. I think the evolution of this storm is gonna have to undergo some major changes if we are to succeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 It’s going to come back enough to bury NYC-BOS (CMC like) and give us a dusting. Just have that feeling especially since the WFT has better blocking right now than this pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 I think too many people are stuck in the “it’s still x number of days away as long as there is potential….” while not seeing the reality that climo and reading between the lines of psu; that this isn’t a great pattern; and it’s a thread the needle/long shot at best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: All I see there is a clustering as we get closer. None of those would produce snow for most of our forum. I think the evolution of this storm is gonna have to undergo some major changes if we are to succeed. I don't disagree, but if I squint I see a slight shift towards cape hatteras on those lows. Despite that, I'd be much happier this coming week if I were on the eastern shore, I think. At least as things stand now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, Rvarookie said: Wondering how many shitty posts you make while we wait… I have no idea what was wrong with what I just posted, smh You tell me. If you have no constructive criticism, buzz off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Just now, ovechkin said: It’s going to come back enough to bury NYC-BOS (CMC like) and give us a dusting. Just have that feeling especially since the WFT has better blocking right now than this pattern. I find your pessimism absolutely shocking and out of character. ....wait a minute... scratch that, I was thinking of someone else 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 18z WB GEFS eastern suburbs see a glimmer of hope. Only one good hit for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: I think too many people are stuck in the “it’s still x number of days away as long as there is potential….” while not seeing the reality that climo and reading between the lines of psu; that this isn’t a great pattern; and it’s a thread the needle/long shot at best. This. The teleconnections don't line up. I'm not really even sure why people have been excited by this period. Sure, we have a solid PNA and EPO, but the AO and NAO are not cooperating at all. AO is so important. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Even after 7 seasons in CO, my top 2 days ever skiing were both at Alta. One inbounds and one out. Colorado's snow stays in much better condition in between storm cycles but skiing at Alta during a Wasatch storm cycle is prob one of the best places in the world rip. Had some amazing days at Alta. JH 2 years ago during that 40” dump was pretty epic. Was in Revelstoke a week it snowed almost everyday in 2013. That’s got to be my top 3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Just now, osfan24 said: This. The teleconnections don't line up. I'm not really even sure why people have been excited by this period. Sure, we have a solid PNA and EPO, but the AO and NAO are not cooperating at all. AO is so important. The PNA is very nice, nearly ideal. But with zero Atlantic side help, it has to be 100% perfect to get a coastal track for us. Even a bootleg 50/50 or NAO would slow things down and give us a little wiggle room. But it’s not there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Just now, psuhoffman said: Had some amazing days at Alta. JH 2 years ago during that 40” dump was pretty epic. Was in Revelstoke a week it snowed almost everyday in 2013. That’s got to be my top 3. Of all the mountains that I really want to ski, Revelstoke has to be at the top of the list. One day I'll make it there, hopefully at the right timing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Rvarookie said: You drunk bro? Chill brah 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Chill brah Stop Stop Stop Stop 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 What is happening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 I've definitely seen worse.. it's interesting that the ensembles are once again diverging from the OP at this range, much like last week's storm. I guess the difference from last week’s situation is that the OPs aren’t all in agreement - it’s interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Is something going on with the drinking water in SeVa? 5 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Had some amazing days at Alta. JH 2 years ago during that 40” dump was pretty epic. Was in Revelstoke a week it snowed almost everyday in 2013. That’s got to be my top 3. Wasatch gets a special kind of snow I've never experienced anywhere else. Even in Jackson after an epic dump. Back then we called it "blower". Cold smoke was up and down the rockies. But blower gave you a literal weightless feeling. Such little resistance for the depth. Step terrain in blower snow feels like different gravity and control. If you could bottle it in little pills the whole world would be addicted. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Is something going on with the drinking water in SeVa? Full of salt 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 We have time…..for a total disaster or elation. I’m leaning towards elation 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 16 minutes ago, osfan24 said: This. The teleconnections don't line up. I'm not really even sure why people have been excited by this period. Sure, we have a solid PNA and EPO, but the AO and NAO are not cooperating at all. AO is so important. Some act like it’s easy for us get a snowstorm without blocking. Then you act like it’s impossible. It’s somewhere in between. A -epo positive NAO Nina pattern can be dry. But we do sometimes get lucky. As the pattern retrogrades this was the best window for amplification near us. Doesn’t make it high probability but the best we had. Overall I thought our best opportunity was last weekend had that not closed off way too early. After that I thought one of these west to east waves would get us but I get we’re all spaced too close abs weak and nothing could activate the baroclinic boundary. This is the best shot we have left before the pattern shifts. Too early to know what our chances will be after the reshuffle. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 29 minutes ago, Fozz said: Of all the mountains that I really want to ski, Revelstoke has to be at the top of the list. One day I'll make it there, hopefully at the right timing. Revelstoke is tied with JH for best terrain imo. Especially if you like tree skiing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 27 minutes ago, Rvarookie said: Funny how folks pick on Ji but let this dumbass slide through I may be may be marginal on my weather skills but do have a pretty good internet armchair asshole radar detector and..... 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Clean up on aisle 6 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 35 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: I think too many people are stuck in the “it’s still x number of days away as long as there is potential….” while not seeing the reality that climo and reading between the lines of psu; that this isn’t a great pattern; and it’s a thread the needle/long shot at best. Most here know the deal with this pattern dude. But this is the reality- many patterns 'aren't great' here and it is pretty typical for all the stars to have to align for snow to occur regardless. This region is pretty diverse geographically and climatologically. There is a better chance for eastern areas as it looks now, but with still 5+ days to go and a lot of moving parts, probably premature to throw in the towel anywhere yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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