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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I want to be in Utah. Alta kicks ass 

Even after 7 seasons in CO, my top 2 days ever skiing were both at Alta. One inbounds and one out. Colorado's snow stays in much better condition in between storm cycles but skiing at Alta during a Wasatch storm cycle is prob one of the best places in the world rip.

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12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Said it before, but I think we want to root for some snow with the upper air trough ala what the 18z icon shows. 

All of that is on the table thankfully. We don't really know what each piece will look like yet (miss or not). I'll only believe my yard is in the game for a nearly due north tracking,  unblocked, and amplified coastal is after I shovel. These setups can be 99% perfect but then a random snow goose flying through at the wrong time rips an average at best goose fart and knocks the storm east of Bermuda. 

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5 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Last three runs of GEFS, MSLP

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_fh126_trend.thumb.gif.6005146e1bae293fd42a268bf7f49f98.gif

All I see there is a clustering as we get closer. None of those would produce snow for most of our forum.

I think the evolution of this storm is gonna have to undergo some major changes if we are to succeed.

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

All I see there is a clustering as we get closer. None of those would produce snow for most of our forum.

I think the evolution of this storm is gonna have to undergo some major changes if we are to succeed.

I don't disagree, but if I squint I see a slight shift towards cape hatteras on those lows.  Despite that, I'd be much happier this coming week if I were on the eastern shore, I think. At least as things stand now. 

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Just now, ovechkin said:

It’s going to come back enough to bury NYC-BOS (CMC like) and give us a dusting. Just have that feeling especially since the WFT has better blocking right now than this pattern.

I find your pessimism absolutely shocking and out of character.

....wait a minute... scratch that, I was thinking of someone else 

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3 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I think too many people are stuck in the “it’s still x number of days away as long as there is potential….”

while not seeing the reality that climo and reading between the lines of psu; that this isn’t a great pattern; and it’s a thread the needle/long shot at best. 

This. The teleconnections don't line up. I'm not really even sure why people have been excited by this period. Sure, we have a solid PNA and EPO, but the AO and NAO are not cooperating at all. AO is so important.

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Even after 7 seasons in CO, my top 2 days ever skiing were both at Alta. One inbounds and one out. Colorado's snow stays in much better condition in between storm cycles but skiing at Alta during a Wasatch storm cycle is prob one of the best places in the world rip.

Had some amazing days at Alta. JH 2 years ago during that 40” dump was pretty epic. Was in Revelstoke a week it snowed almost everyday in 2013. That’s got to be my top 3. 

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Just now, osfan24 said:

This. The teleconnections don't line up. I'm not really even sure why people have been excited by this period. Sure, we have a solid PNA and EPO, but the AO and NAO are not cooperating at all. AO is so important.

The PNA is very nice, nearly ideal. But with zero Atlantic side help, it has to be 100% perfect to get a coastal track for us. Even a bootleg 50/50 or NAO would slow things down and give us a little wiggle room. But it’s not there.

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Had some amazing days at Alta. JH 2 years ago during that 40” dump was pretty epic. Was in Revelstoke a week it snowed almost everyday in 2013. That’s got to be my top 3. 

Of all the mountains that I really want to ski, Revelstoke has to be at the top of the list. One day I'll make it there, hopefully at the right timing.

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17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Had some amazing days at Alta. JH 2 years ago during that 40” dump was pretty epic. Was in Revelstoke a week it snowed almost everyday in 2013. That’s got to be my top 3. 

Wasatch gets a special kind of snow I've never experienced anywhere else. Even in Jackson after an epic dump. Back then we called it "blower". Cold smoke was up and down the rockies. But blower gave you a literal weightless feeling. Such little resistance for the depth. Step terrain in blower snow feels like different gravity and control. If you could bottle it in little pills the whole world would be addicted. 

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16 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

This. The teleconnections don't line up. I'm not really even sure why people have been excited by this period. Sure, we have a solid PNA and EPO, but the AO and NAO are not cooperating at all. AO is so important.

Some act like it’s easy for us get a snowstorm without blocking. Then you act like it’s impossible. It’s somewhere in between. A -epo positive NAO Nina pattern can be dry. But we do sometimes get lucky.  As the pattern retrogrades this was the best window for amplification near us.  Doesn’t make it high probability but the best we had. Overall I thought our best opportunity was last weekend had that not closed off way too early. After that I thought one of these west to east waves would get us but I get we’re all spaced too close abs weak and nothing could activate the baroclinic boundary.  This is the best shot we have left before the pattern shifts.  Too early to know what our chances will be after the reshuffle. 

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35 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I think too many people are stuck in the “it’s still x number of days away as long as there is potential….”

while not seeing the reality that climo and reading between the lines of psu; that this isn’t a great pattern; and it’s a thread the needle/long shot at best. 

Most here know the deal with this pattern dude. But this is the reality- many patterns 'aren't great' here and it is pretty typical for all the stars to have to align for snow to occur regardless. This region is pretty diverse geographically and climatologically. There is a better chance for eastern areas as it looks now, but with still 5+ days to go and a lot of moving parts, probably premature to throw in the towel anywhere yet.

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