WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2022 Author Share Posted January 23, 2022 This is when we should start a thread for this. Totally serious. I’d love to see what happens. Just don’t let Ji do it. He killed two threats with one thread. Talent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Wait...12z GFS gives us flakes with a dusting to an 1". 12z CMC gives the corridor 2-4" with 4-8" on the shore. Pretty close on those two models to being a bigger hit for us. A few minor tweaks with those runs and we have a coastal hit. We don't need some change of massive proportions with those 2 model runs. Not basing things verbatim off of models....just using them as a blend for guidance. Especially weighing more heavily on the ens still ar this range. If I were just looking at the cmc or gfs then I might agree. But looking at the overall flow across N America and into the Atl region, looking at ens members and means, and looking at recent systems as well as traditional Nina regimes, this one just isn't giving me the warm fuzzies. I'm done debbing (though just being realistic tbh) on this one...its the last I will mention my thoughts on it for today in lieu of upsetting folks which isn't my m.o. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not basing things verbatim off of models....just using them as a blend for guidance. Especially weighing more heavily on the ens still ar this range. If I were just looking at the cmc or gfs then I might agree. But looking at the overall flow across N America and into the Atl region, looking at ens members and means, and looking at recent systems as well as traditional Nina regimes, this one just isn't giving me the warm fuzzies. I'm done debbing (though just being realistic tbh) on this one...its the last I will mention my thoughts on it for today in lieu of upsetting folks which isn't my m.o. Makes sense. I agree. General pattern does not scream a wrapped up, slow moving coastal. Best case is quick moving coastal with 2-4" - 4-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 It would be super silly to give up on this today. Ill give it one more run 1 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 24 minutes ago, stormtracker said: If it helps, BOS and NYC get the screw as well I have to admit, there is a bit of consolation in that! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 5 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Rent free Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 I still rather have this thing east than west at this range. Rarely do I see storms move back east when we see a rain event, but we all the time see events move west on us...usually giving us rain as a result. I can live with a day or two of missed model runs for the hope that by mid-week the models are back with a solid hit on us. That said, a fish spinner is definitely possible too. Just hoping that's not the way it goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 WB 12Z EPS does have 2 hits for the weekend… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS does have 2 hits for the weekend… 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Just look at how much models have bounced around over the past several runs and you'll realize no model has a good handle on this yet. We usually don't get a remotely accurate picture of the timing and amplitude until somewhere between 60-84hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Ji? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: Ji? Why I prefer to use the two hits map so I don’t get in trouble for being too negative…, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 JMA says it’s on 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 27 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Where the hell do you find this stuff…brought tears to my eyes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Just think guys, we're almost at the point where we can start NAM extrapolations! 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Just now, Solution Man said: Where the hell do you find this stuff…brought tears to my eyes Ha. It's a decently popular meme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Ha. It's a decently popular meme Funny as shi* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 31 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: Boston 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Gfs looks almost like a frontal passage. It’s gonna take bombogenesis if we’re talking a miller b. As others have said the trough is too east…not enough time to tap into the gulf at this latitude or the Atlantic at this longitude. 5-6 days out though… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Does anyone care what the CFS shows? 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Just now, MDsnowPRO said: Does anyone care what the CFS shows? If it’s right I do 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Latest from Sterling NWS. Most solutions (in both deterministic and ensemble guidance) favor surface cyclogenesis in response to this upper trough occurring well offshore. Some snow showers appear likely as lift attendant to the trough progresses through during the day on Friday. If the developing coastal low were to trend further north and west, there could be a more substantial snowfall, but that solution currently appears unlikely. Conditions should be windy on Sunday as the rapidly deepening coastal low departs off to our northeast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, Solution Man said: If it’s right I do Serious shift of the low to the west vs Oz. 400 miles give or take? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, MDsnowPRO said: Serious shift of the low to the west vs Oz. 400 miles give or take? They shouldn't even run surface panels for the CFS. It's a climate model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: They shouldn't even run surface panels for the CFS. It's a climate model. I didn’t even know hourly CFS was a thing. Is that new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2022 Author Share Posted January 23, 2022 42 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: JMA says it’s on If you live on an island off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 17 minutes ago, MDsnowPRO said: Serious shift of the low to the west vs Oz. 400 miles give or take? Gives mid-atl some snow and turns BOS to rain. But agree, they prob shld not even show sfc panels on a climate model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, Snowfan96 said: Gives mid-atl some snow and turns BOS to rain. But agree, they prob shld not even show sfc panels on a climate model. I like any model that gives Boston rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 25 minutes ago, Solution Man said: If it’s right I do Does Mexico have a forecasting model like the MFS or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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