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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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1 minute ago, Quasievil said:

Funny thing is, it's similar to what the GFS showed on the 6Z run from the 20th. Bombed off the coast but didn't throw anything back into our area. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=eus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2022012006&fh=222

 

12z yesterday had a 957mb bomb about 60 miles off the southern Delmarva. Dropped 25"+ from central NC up through the Peninsula region and up into southern MD.

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1 minute ago, mattie g said:

12z yesterday had a 957mb bomb about 60 miles off the southern Delmarva. Dropped 25"+ from central NC up through the Peninsula region and up into southern MD.

Correct but a different timeframe (few days earlier). The 6Z from yesterday showed the storm similarly in the same timeframe.

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GGEM and GFS both working slowly in the right direction for Tuesday next week with more spacing between the northern and southern waves.  Need that to continue so the northern stream can drag the cold air in enough.  GGEM today is very close to that and has a strong enough southern wave to flip us to 1-3" of snow after some rain by dragging in some colder air.  

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh90_trend-2.thumb.gif.d322391cb487f92906fc1bfa7e872d01.gif

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

the funny part nobody talks about is that this storm screws up relatively 

 

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Um, I did.  I said it peaked too soon.

Looks like that shortwave that approaches the upper midwest kind of shunts it more to the east, rather than doing what the storm last weekend did (i.e., go due N or NW inland).  And, there is some suppressive flow to the northeast.

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