csnavywx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It seriously is uncanny how the Euro and CMC are carbon copies of each other at 72 Yep, did some scoping on west coast initialization, they're a dead match. Good against RAOBs too. GFS was a touch weak out there (10-15m) at 500mb on the ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro has a more pronounced southern feature than yesterday. Are we basically going to wasten5 days tracking a nyc snowstorm? This is what we want I thought 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Ccem ensembles have a few inside tracks it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Slight differences start to appear at 105, Euro is a bit more west with the western vort than CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 ok, now the differences start...Euro more GFS like at 117 BUT heights in front are higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 25 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: I’m moving to Boston without looking back if they get smashed again while we have to look at a snow globe to see any snow here. I don’t get the obsession with Boston. It’s 8 hours away, same distance as Toronto, and averages 3x more snow than DC. Vastly different climo. Many of our storms don’t hit them either! Why do people get so upset when they get snow and we don’t? Isn’t that what’s supposed to happen??? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Logan has 12.2 inches season to date and DCA has 12.1. We should be happy where we are so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 it's gonna miss wide right. trof really never goes neg tilt. Next time fellas and ladies. We get no precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 it's gonna miss. trof really never goes neg tilt. Next time fellas and ladiesEuro always ruins a good start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 If it helps, BOS and NYC get the screw as well 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Euro is still the best model when it comes to not giving us snow. Only time its right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: it's gonna miss wide right. trof really never goes neg tilt. Next time fellas and ladies. We get no precip. Wide right is an understatement. Thing is trucking for Bermuda ffs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 With the exception of a few winning op runs here and there, the models are still pointing in one direction: OTS. Flow is just too progressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 12Z WB EURO has a low closer to Bermuda than the East coast. But in fairness, it has not shown a serious threat for the upcoming weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 9 minutes ago, Ji said: 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: it's gonna miss. trof really never goes neg tilt. Next time fellas and ladies Euro always ruins a good start Super low expectations with this one but I have to point out that this time last week the euro was showing like 12-20" for this past Friday/Saturday. Que Ji with his, "When the euro shows snow it never snows" rants... Edit...actually it's 0z run last Sunday morning was 2' for dc. It's 18z last Monday afternoon was 19" for dc... just saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Does try for the system after the system after the next system near day 9ish so there's that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 We still got time. Pipe down. With the slot machine changing every 6 hours, who the hell can be upset or happy with the results rn? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Snowfan96 said: With the exception of a few winning op runs here and there, the models are still pointing in one direction: OTS. Flow is just too progressive. Have to agree with you here. We've been watching this blowup well offshore for days and support is beginning to grow outside of a few rogue op runs past few days and a few western ens outliers 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: We still got time. Pipe down. With the slot machine changing every 6 hours, who the hell can be upset or happy with the results rn? Until we run out of coins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 It’s over Grover…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: We still got time. Pipe down There's always a chance. Up until Saturday there's a chance. But with the progressive pattern and no blocking it is going to take a change of mass proportion to get this to begin trending into a coastal hit. If we had some support or the mentioned blocking I think more realists would side with you Randy. But this is like the 1980 USA Olympic hockey team walking into qualifiers....a chance but probably need a miracle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 hour ago, snowfan said: Glancing blow here, great for the coast and further NE. Better than the GFS. I mean we need a 80 mile shift west that is nothing at this range give it until Tuesday Night early Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 I dont think we've ever faced a more uphill battle to get a storm 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Just now, Ji said: I dont think we've ever faced a more uphill battle to get a storm If you eliminate the other 7,428 times then you're probably right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: I dont think we've ever faced a more uphill battle to get a storm Sure we have....almost every single threat is an uphill battle. It is never easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: There's always a chance. Up until Saturday there's a chance. But with the progressive pattern and no blocking it is going to take a change of mass proportion to get this to begin trending into a coastal hit. If we had some support or the mentioned blocking I think more realists would side with you Randy. But this is like the 1980 USA Olympic hockey team walking into qualifiers....a chance but probably need a miracle. Wait...12z GFS gives us flakes with a dusting to an 1". 12z CMC gives the corridor 2-4" with 4-8" on the shore. Pretty close on those two models to being a bigger hit for us. A few minor tweaks with those runs and we have a coastal hit. We don't need some change of massive proportions with those 2 model runs. Some runs are well off shore and some are a LOT closer. Still a wide range of possibilities. Models are split on OTS or closer to the coast. Until the land on a general solution we're still in the game. Could go either way. If the final solution is closer to the coast like GFS and CMC then we can start discussing details...like Miller B screw job, lack of precip etc... My main point is that, this could still turn into something special for us and it could still completely screw everyone along the east coast. Models are split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2022 Author Share Posted January 23, 2022 It all lies with the feature in the sw. It isn’t ss either. It’s a ns wave that drops straight to the four corners. If that doesn’t head east much stronger than it’s being shown right now, it’s gonna be a losing battle with the flow in place across the east. We need that trough at least neutral tilt by the Mississippi River or we’re probably done. Just my take. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: I mean we need a 80 mile shift west that is nothing at this range give it until Tuesday Night early Wednesday. While true for the Canadian, the euro is a fish storm and the gfs has trended east each of the last handful of runs. That said, there’s still plenty of time to keep an eye on things. Seasonal trends would not support a large ES storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2022 Author Share Posted January 23, 2022 I’d like to see that feature in the sw get lost for one day. Just sit right where it is. Then come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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