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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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25 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

I’m moving to Boston without looking back if they get smashed again while we have to look at a snow globe to see any snow here.

I don’t get the obsession with Boston. It’s 8 hours away, same distance as Toronto, and averages 3x more snow than DC. Vastly different climo.  Many of our storms don’t hit them either!   Why do people get so upset when they get snow and we don’t?  Isn’t that what’s supposed to happen???

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9 minutes ago, Ji said:
10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:
it's gonna miss. trof really never goes neg tilt.  Next time fellas and ladies

Euro always ruins a good start

Super low expectations with this one but I have to point out that this time last week the euro was showing  like 12-20" for this past Friday/Saturday. Que Ji with his, "When the euro shows snow it never snows" rants...

 

Edit...actually it's 0z run last Sunday morning was 2' for dc. It's 18z last Monday afternoon was 19" for dc... just saying...

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1 minute ago, Snowfan96 said:

With the exception of a few winning op runs here and there, the models are still pointing in one direction: OTS. Flow is just too progressive.

Have to agree with you here. We've been watching this blowup well offshore for days and support is beginning to grow outside of a few rogue op runs past few days and a few western ens outliers  

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Just now, stormtracker said:

We still got time.  Pipe down

There's always a chance. Up until Saturday there's a chance. But with the progressive pattern and no blocking it is going to take a change of mass proportion to get this to begin trending into a coastal hit. If we had some support or the mentioned blocking I think more realists would side with you Randy. But this is like the 1980 USA Olympic hockey team walking into qualifiers....a chance but probably need a miracle.  

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5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

There's always a chance. Up until Saturday there's a chance. But with the progressive pattern and no blocking it is going to take a change of mass proportion to get this to begin trending into a coastal hit. If we had some support or the mentioned blocking I think more realists would side with you Randy. But this is like the 1980 USA Olympic hockey team walking into qualifiers....a chance but probably need a miracle.  

Wait...12z GFS gives us flakes with a dusting to an 1". 12z CMC gives the corridor 2-4" with 4-8" on the shore. Pretty close on those two models to being a bigger hit for us. A few minor tweaks with those runs and we have a coastal hit. We don't need some change of massive proportions with those 2 model runs. 

Some runs are well off shore and some are a LOT closer. Still a wide range of possibilities. Models are split on OTS or closer to the coast. Until the land on a general solution we're still in the game. Could go either way. If the final solution is closer to the coast like GFS and CMC then we can start discussing details...like Miller B screw job, lack of precip etc...

My main point is that, this could still turn into something special for us and it could still completely screw everyone along the east coast. Models are split. 

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It all lies with the feature in the sw. It isn’t ss either. It’s a ns wave that drops straight to the four corners. If that doesn’t head east much stronger than it’s being shown right now, it’s gonna be a losing battle with the flow in place across the east. We need that trough at least neutral tilt by the Mississippi River or we’re probably done. Just my take.

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2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I mean we need a 80 mile shift west that is nothing at this range give it until Tuesday Night early Wednesday.

While true for the Canadian, the euro is a fish storm and the gfs has trended east each of the last handful of runs. That said, there’s still plenty of time to keep an eye on things. Seasonal trends would not support a large ES storm though.

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