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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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CMC demonstrating nicely exactly what I was referring to earlier. Cutoff/omega combo breaks down slower, allowing the downstream to amplify more. That's good for us. Don't worry too much about the "tail" vort streamer. We want one there. This wave is big enough to scoop that out and give strong advection vort to spin up the low faster.

Now the next question is -- are the models demonstrating the typical bias in blocking breakdowns and simply correcting for it over time now? It's always been my experience that there's a tendency to break blocks down too quickly. Some of that probably has to do with the limitations of horizonal resolution on a global. Smaller scale eddies are important for maintaining blocks.

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CMC 120-126hrs  shows the pressure dropping from 1014mb to 1004mb along the Carolina coast in an environment where winds are out of the north.  This is probably some kind of a feedback error and effects everything that happens north of there.

And total pressure drop is 1014mb to 957mb in 24hrs.  Seems a bit fast.

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8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@Bob Chill and I have similar thoughts regarding this threat. I think hoping for a 1-3”/2-4” event as the northern trough swings through might be better odds. GFS has shown that off and on and now GGEM sort of does.

How would that work, though? Don't Miller B's usually leave us in the hole almost completely? (except for the western half of the subforum that can get the WAA). I'm not sure we've had one that even squeezed out 2-4, lol

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

How would that work, though? Don't Miller B's usually leave us in the hole almost completely? (except for the western half of the subforum that can get the WAA). I'm not sure we've had one that even squeezed out 2-4, lol

Just relying on the 500mb energy to provide some lift as it goes by. 

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7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Color me skeptical...that kind of thing almost never seems to pan out (except maybe a flurry or two). Of course I could've be biased...as I'm stickin' with the prediction that we either get 1-2' or nothing at all, lol

Miller B's have panned out for us. They tend not to, but some of our biggest storms have been Miller B's.  

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22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I beg to differ...got any records? Our biggest storms have been As not Bs!

 

19 minutes ago, Ji said:
23 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:
I beg to differ...got any records? Our biggest storms have been As not Bs!

You need extreme blocking like feb 2010 and even that was a close call. The 2nd blizzard not the first

 

19 minutes ago, notvirga! said:

A couple example for dc/ Baltimore would be feb 78 and the second storm in feb 2010. 

 

18 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said:

The infamous Snowquester was a Miller B and while you all and DC got the shaft... Charlottesville was smashed with extremely heavy, wet snow. 16 inches here.

And I rest my case. 

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3 hours ago, HighStakes said:

Euro and GFS ensemble teleconnections charts are in general agreement heading into early February. Both like the AO to go negative but both are in strong agreement of a somewhat strong positive EPO. One trend to watch is they are slowly backing away from s prolonged negative PNA and actually appear to have it nudging close to neutral by the the end of the period. WPO has consistently modeled to remain deeply negative on both models. NAO is not great on either chart but it's also not off the grid positive. If we get another nice period of blocking hopefully it is not until mid March like in 2018 and maybe the PAC will still be workable. I see no reason to be overly pessimistic.

February could turn out to be quite the fight!

The look at the end of the ensembles looks transitionary to me.  I certainly don’t like the +epo look. But the AO is going negative. Question is where does that go and we can’t see the other side yet and things are too unstable right now to make more than a WAG. 

1 hour ago, Ji said:

It wouldn't take too much of the 12z trend is real to bet back to exciting levels

I don’t think guidance is trending yet. What we’re seeing is guidance jumping around between various possible synoptic permutations based on subtle timing and amplitude difference is all the Sws involved. Once they settle on a common synoptic progression and stabilize then we might see stable trends one way or the other. 

1 hour ago, jayyy said:

Didnt you say it was over last night? :lol:

You need to separate his satire from his topical posts. 

54 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

If this happens, I'm going to accidentally delete the NE subforum

gem_asnow_us_25.png

We’re in a NS steam dominant Nina pattern with no blocking. I think both know what the most likely outcome is here and should prepare ourselves for that. Doesn’t mean we can’t get a win here.  It can happen sometimes…but Boston has much better odds than we do. 

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