csnavywx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 CMC demonstrating nicely exactly what I was referring to earlier. Cutoff/omega combo breaks down slower, allowing the downstream to amplify more. That's good for us. Don't worry too much about the "tail" vort streamer. We want one there. This wave is big enough to scoop that out and give strong advection vort to spin up the low faster. Now the next question is -- are the models demonstrating the typical bias in blocking breakdowns and simply correcting for it over time now? It's always been my experience that there's a tendency to break blocks down too quickly. Some of that probably has to do with the limitations of horizonal resolution on a global. Smaller scale eddies are important for maintaining blocks. 4 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 @Bob Chill and I have similar thoughts regarding this threat. I think hoping for a 1-3”/2-4” event as the northern trough swings through might be better odds. GFS has shown that off and on and now GGEM sort of does. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 We just need to slowly reel this thing in over the next few days and at least we'll be in range to get some kind of event. "Happy to be in the game" as they say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Good short thread here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 CMC 120-126hrs shows the pressure dropping from 1014mb to 1004mb along the Carolina coast in an environment where winds are out of the north. This is probably some kind of a feedback error and effects everything that happens north of there. And total pressure drop is 1014mb to 957mb in 24hrs. Seems a bit fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 GEFS is generally a lot more favorable. better amplification of the PNA ridge allows for the downstream trough axis to shift W 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: @Bob Chill and I have similar thoughts regarding this threat. I think hoping for a 1-3”/2-4” event as the northern trough swings through might be better odds. GFS has shown that off and on and now GGEM sort of does. How would that work, though? Don't Miller B's usually leave us in the hole almost completely? (except for the western half of the subforum that can get the WAA). I'm not sure we've had one that even squeezed out 2-4, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 12 minutes ago, Ji said: Cmc showed the first of many upcoming western trends I agree. We're right where we want to be 5 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS is generally a lot more favorable. better amplification of the PNA ridge allows for the downstream trough axis to shift W Yep, we are pretty dependent on that ridge with a lack of a downstream block to slow it down (as @wxmvpete) mentioned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: How would that work, though? Don't Miller B's usually leave us in the hole almost completely? (except for the western half of the subforum that can get the WAA). I'm not sure we've had one that even squeezed out 2-4, lol Just relying on the 500mb energy to provide some lift as it goes by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Just relying on the 500mb energy to provide some lift as it goes by. Color me skeptical...that kind of thing almost never seems to pan out (except maybe a flurry or two). Of course I could've be biased...as I'm stickin' with the prediction that we either get 1-2' or nothing at all, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 The entire GFS run is pretty much disastrous for our subforum. If I end up with a third of an inch of snow between now and Feb 8th, with all of that cold air around, I will blow a gasket. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The entire GFS run is pretty much disastrous for our subforum. If I end up with a third of an inch of snow between now and Feb 8th, with all of that cold air around, I will blow a gasket. That map looks to be about on par for our region! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Color me skeptical...that kind of thing almost never seems to pan out (except maybe a flurry or two). Of course I could've be biased...as I'm stickin' with the prediction that we either get 1-2' or nothing at all, lol Miller B's have panned out for us. They tend not to, but some of our biggest storms have been Miller B's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Just now, Imgoinhungry said: That map looks to be about on par for our region! SE VA/NE NC seems to be doing well. They may be approaching annual snowfall in ORF which I think is 7 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 28 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Help us 12z ECMWF, you're our only hope @yodalikely agrees and approves 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Miller B's have panned out for us. They tend not to, but some of our biggest storms have been Miller B's. I beg to differ...got any records? Our biggest storms have been As not Bs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 I beg to differ...got any records? Our biggest storms have been As not Bs!You need extreme blocking like feb 2010 and even that was a close call. The 2nd blizzard not the first 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I beg to differ...got any records? Our biggest storms have been As not Bs! A couple example for dc/ Baltimore would be feb 78 and the second storm in feb 2010. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I beg to differ...got any records? Our biggest storms have been As not Bs! The infamous Snowquester was a Miller B and while you all and DC got the shaft... Charlottesville was smashed with extremely heavy, wet snow. 16 inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: @yodalikely agrees and approves Waiting for the euro to help us is like asking Darth Maul to assist at a Jedi daycare facility. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 37 minutes ago, Ji said: Cmc showed the first of many upcoming western trends You are so bipolar. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 You are so bipolar. Yes like the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I beg to differ...got any records? Our biggest storms have been As not Bs! 19 minutes ago, Ji said: 23 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I beg to differ...got any records? Our biggest storms have been As not Bs! You need extreme blocking like feb 2010 and even that was a close call. The 2nd blizzard not the first 19 minutes ago, notvirga! said: A couple example for dc/ Baltimore would be feb 78 and the second storm in feb 2010. 18 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said: The infamous Snowquester was a Miller B and while you all and DC got the shaft... Charlottesville was smashed with extremely heavy, wet snow. 16 inches here. And I rest my case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 3 hours ago, HighStakes said: Euro and GFS ensemble teleconnections charts are in general agreement heading into early February. Both like the AO to go negative but both are in strong agreement of a somewhat strong positive EPO. One trend to watch is they are slowly backing away from s prolonged negative PNA and actually appear to have it nudging close to neutral by the the end of the period. WPO has consistently modeled to remain deeply negative on both models. NAO is not great on either chart but it's also not off the grid positive. If we get another nice period of blocking hopefully it is not until mid March like in 2018 and maybe the PAC will still be workable. I see no reason to be overly pessimistic. February could turn out to be quite the fight! The look at the end of the ensembles looks transitionary to me. I certainly don’t like the +epo look. But the AO is going negative. Question is where does that go and we can’t see the other side yet and things are too unstable right now to make more than a WAG. 1 hour ago, Ji said: It wouldn't take too much of the 12z trend is real to bet back to exciting levels I don’t think guidance is trending yet. What we’re seeing is guidance jumping around between various possible synoptic permutations based on subtle timing and amplitude difference is all the Sws involved. Once they settle on a common synoptic progression and stabilize then we might see stable trends one way or the other. 1 hour ago, jayyy said: Didnt you say it was over last night? You need to separate his satire from his topical posts. 54 minutes ago, stormtracker said: If this happens, I'm going to accidentally delete the NE subforum We’re in a NS steam dominant Nina pattern with no blocking. I think both know what the most likely outcome is here and should prepare ourselves for that. Doesn’t mean we can’t get a win here. It can happen sometimes…but Boston has much better odds than we do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 I’m moving to Boston without looking back if they get smashed again while we have to look at a snow globe to see any snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Ok, doing 12z Euro comparison with GFS/CMC at 12z and 6z Euro. Not far enough out yet to see the systems that will affect our storm, but early on Euro matches CMC almost dead on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 It seriously is uncanny how the Euro and CMC are carbon copies of each other at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Again, not saying this has any downstream ramifications, just remarking on the model..but there are virtually zero differences between the CMC and Euro at 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Euro has a more pronounced southern feature than yesterday. Are we basically going to wasten5 days tracking a nyc snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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